Premier League·Regular Season - 10·
Premier League·Regular Season - 10·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
27%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.321.202.52safe0.35–2.290.35–2.060.70–4.35safer0.10–2.540.12–2.280.22–4.83
Shots on target
42%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.184.288.46safe2.31–6.042.54–6.034.85–12.06safer1.82–6.532.08–6.493.90–13.02
Total shots
35%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3713.8426.21safe8.44–16.2910.28–17.4118.72–33.70safer7.35–17.389.32–18.3716.67–35.75
Shots in box
37%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction7.838.6216.46safe4.89–10.785.94–11.3010.83–22.08safer4.06–11.615.20–12.049.27–23.65
Blocked shots
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.534.097.61safe1.65–5.412.43–5.744.08–11.15safer1.10–5.951.94–6.233.04–12.18
Corners
44%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction5.025.0210.04safe2.81–7.243.02–7.025.83–14.26safer2.24–7.812.49–7.554.72–15.36
Possession %
50%
46%
homeawayprediction50.7249.85safe43.93–57.5143.06–56.63safer42.26–59.1841.39–58.31
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction452429881safe385–519362–495747–1015safer367–537345–513712–1050
Pass accuracy %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction68.3772.71safe64.34–72.4068.38–77.03safer63.05–73.7067.07–78.34
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6512.5525.20safe9.81–15.499.60–15.4919.42–30.98safer9.06–16.248.85–16.2417.91–32.48
Offsides
34%
23%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.803.39safe0.43–2.750.71–2.891.13–5.64safer0.13–3.050.42–3.180.54–6.23
Yellow cards
37%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.122.314.43safe1.07–3.161.19–3.442.25–6.61safer0.80–3.430.89–3.731.69–7.16
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.15safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.142.725.86safe1.70–4.581.16–4.272.87–8.85safer1.32–4.960.74–4.702.05–9.66
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.32 0.35–2.29 0.10–2.54 | 1.20 0.35–2.06 0.12–2.28 | 2.52 0.70–4.35 0.22–4.83 | 40% 27% 34% |
| Shots on target | 4.18 2.31–6.04 1.82–6.53 | 4.28 2.54–6.03 2.08–6.49 | 8.46 4.85–12.06 3.90–13.02 | 42% 14% 44% |
| Total shots | 12.37 8.44–16.29 7.35–17.38 | 13.84 10.28–17.41 9.32–18.37 | 26.21 18.72–33.70 16.67–35.75 | 35% 58% |
| Shots in box | 7.83 4.89–10.78 4.06–11.61 | 8.62 5.94–11.30 5.20–12.04 | 16.46 10.83–22.08 9.27–23.65 | 37% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 3.53 1.65–5.41 1.10–5.95 | 4.09 2.43–5.74 1.94–6.23 | 7.61 4.08–11.15 3.04–12.18 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Corners | 5.02 2.81–7.24 2.24–7.81 | 5.02 3.02–7.02 2.49–7.55 | 10.04 5.83–14.26 4.72–15.36 | 44% 44% |
| Possession % | 50.72 43.93–57.51 42.26–59.18 | 49.85 43.06–56.63 41.39–58.31 | — | 50% 46% |
| Passes | 452 385–519 367–537 | 429 362–495 345–513 | 881 747–1015 712–1050 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.37 64.34–72.40 63.05–73.70 | 72.71 68.38–77.03 67.07–78.34 | — | 27% 69% |
| Fouls | 12.65 9.81–15.49 9.06–16.24 | 12.55 9.60–15.49 8.85–16.24 | 25.20 19.42–30.98 17.91–32.48 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.59 0.43–2.75 0.13–3.05 | 1.80 0.71–2.89 0.42–3.18 | 3.39 1.13–5.64 0.54–6.23 | 34% 23% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 2.12 1.07–3.16 0.80–3.43 | 2.31 1.19–3.44 0.89–3.73 | 4.43 2.25–6.61 1.69–7.16 | 37% 20% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.14 1.70–4.58 1.32–4.96 | 2.72 1.16–4.27 0.74–4.70 | 5.86 2.87–8.85 2.05–9.66 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.