Premier League·Regular Season - 21·
Premier League·Regular Season - 21·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
26%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.102.62safe0.56–2.490.24–1.950.80–4.45safer0.30–2.740.02–2.180.32–4.93
Shots on target
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.903.958.85safe3.04–6.762.21–5.695.24–12.45safer2.55–7.251.74–6.164.29–13.41
Total shots
81%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7510.6826.43safe11.83–19.687.12–14.2418.94–33.92safer10.74–20.776.16–15.2016.89–35.97
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.517.0117.52safe7.57–13.454.33–9.6911.89–23.14safer6.74–14.283.59–10.4310.33–24.71
Blocked shots
66%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.682.997.67safe2.80–6.561.34–4.654.14–11.21safer2.25–7.100.85–5.143.10–12.24
Corners
69%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction6.354.2310.58safe4.13–8.562.23–6.236.37–14.79safer3.56–9.131.70–6.775.26–15.90
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction52.5747.68safe45.78–59.3640.89–54.46safer44.11–61.0339.22–56.13
Passes
66%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction472422894safe405–539355–488760–1027safer386–557338–506724–1063
Pass accuracy %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction71.6470.94safe67.61–75.6766.62–75.27safer66.32–76.9665.31–76.58
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1212.6023.72safe8.29–13.969.65–15.5417.94–29.51safer7.53–14.728.91–16.2916.44–31.01
Offsides
46%
23%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.473.29safe0.66–2.980.38–2.561.04–5.55safer0.36–3.280.09–2.850.45–6.14
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.942.304.24safe0.89–2.991.18–3.432.06–6.42safer0.62–3.250.88–3.721.51–6.98
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.080.18safe0.00–0.260.00–0.270.00–0.53safer0.00–0.410.00–0.400.00–0.81
GK saves
28%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.503.425.91safe1.06–3.931.86–4.972.92–8.90safer0.67–4.321.43–5.402.11–9.72
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.56–2.49 0.30–2.74 | 1.10 0.24–1.95 0.02–2.18 | 2.62 0.80–4.45 0.32–4.93 | 47% 26% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.90 3.04–6.76 2.55–7.25 | 3.95 2.21–5.69 1.74–6.16 | 8.85 5.24–12.45 4.29–13.41 | 56% 31% |
| Total shots | 15.75 11.83–19.68 10.74–20.77 | 10.68 7.12–14.24 6.16–15.20 | 26.43 18.94–33.92 16.89–35.97 | 81% 14% |
| Shots in box | 10.51 7.57–13.45 6.74–14.28 | 7.01 4.33–9.69 3.59–10.43 | 17.52 11.89–23.14 10.33–24.71 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.68 2.80–6.56 2.25–7.10 | 2.99 1.34–4.65 0.85–5.14 | 7.67 4.14–11.21 3.10–12.24 | 66% 21% |
| Corners | 6.35 4.13–8.56 3.56–9.13 | 4.23 2.23–6.23 1.70–6.77 | 10.58 6.37–14.79 5.26–15.90 | 69% 21% |
| Possession % | 52.57 45.78–59.36 44.11–61.03 | 47.68 40.89–54.46 39.22–56.13 | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 472 405–539 386–557 | 422 355–488 338–506 | 894 760–1027 724–1063 | 66% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.64 67.61–75.67 66.32–76.96 | 70.94 66.62–75.27 65.31–76.58 | — | 51% 44% |
| Fouls | 11.12 8.29–13.96 7.53–14.72 | 12.60 9.65–15.54 8.91–16.29 | 23.72 17.94–29.51 16.44–31.01 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.82 0.66–2.98 0.36–3.28 | 1.47 0.38–2.56 0.09–2.85 | 3.29 1.04–5.55 0.45–6.14 | 46% 23% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 0.89–2.99 0.62–3.25 | 2.30 1.18–3.43 0.88–3.72 | 4.24 2.06–6.42 1.51–6.98 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.50 1.06–3.93 0.67–4.32 | 3.42 1.86–4.97 1.43–5.40 | 5.91 2.92–8.90 2.11–9.72 | 28% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.