Premier League·Regular Season - 10·
Premier League·Regular Season - 10·Predicted match statistics
Goals
58%
22%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.063.01safe0.98–2.920.21–1.921.19–4.83safer0.73–3.170.00–2.150.71–5.31
Shots on target
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.093.849.93safe4.23–7.952.10–5.586.33–13.54safer3.74–8.441.63–6.055.37–14.49
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction16.3610.8927.24safe12.43–20.287.32–14.4519.76–34.73safer11.34–21.376.36–15.4117.71–36.78
Shots in box
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction11.107.3818.48safe8.16–14.044.70–10.0612.86–24.10safer7.33–14.873.96–10.8011.29–25.67
Blocked shots
54%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.483.688.16safe2.59–6.362.03–5.344.62–11.70safer2.05–6.901.54–5.833.59–12.73
Corners
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.103.9810.08safe3.88–8.311.98–5.985.86–14.29safer3.31–8.881.44–6.514.75–15.40
Possession %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction55.1545.25safe48.36–61.9438.47–52.04safer46.69–63.6136.80–53.71
Passes
80%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction528426954safe461–595359–492820–1088safer443–613342–510785–1123
Pass accuracy %
62%
33%
homeawayprediction76.1273.31safe72.09–80.1568.99–77.64safer70.80–81.4467.68–78.95
Fouls
44%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8811.0521.93safe8.04–13.728.10–13.9916.14–27.71safer7.29–14.477.35–14.7414.64–29.21
Offsides
65%
16%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.841.514.35safe1.68–4.000.42–2.602.10–6.60safer1.38–4.300.13–2.891.51–7.19
Yellow cards
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.642.223.86safe0.59–2.691.09–3.351.68–6.04safer0.32–2.950.80–3.641.12–6.60
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.594.056.63safe1.15–4.022.49–5.603.64–9.63safer0.76–4.412.07–6.032.83–10.44
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.95 0.98–2.92 0.73–3.17 | 1.06 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.15 | 3.01 1.19–4.83 0.71–5.31 | 58% 22% 20% |
| Shots on target | 6.09 4.23–7.95 3.74–8.44 | 3.84 2.10–5.58 1.63–6.05 | 9.93 6.33–13.54 5.37–14.49 | 71% 19% |
| Total shots | 16.36 12.43–20.28 11.34–21.37 | 10.89 7.32–14.45 6.36–15.41 | 27.24 19.76–34.73 17.71–36.78 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 11.10 8.16–14.04 7.33–14.87 | 7.38 4.70–10.06 3.96–10.80 | 18.48 12.86–24.10 11.29–25.67 | 77% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 4.48 2.59–6.36 2.05–6.90 | 3.68 2.03–5.34 1.54–5.83 | 8.16 4.62–11.70 3.59–12.73 | 54% 14% 32% |
| Corners | 6.10 3.88–8.31 3.31–8.88 | 3.98 1.98–5.98 1.44–6.51 | 10.08 5.86–14.29 4.75–15.40 | 69% 20% |
| Possession % | 55.15 48.36–61.94 46.69–63.61 | 45.25 38.47–52.04 36.80–53.71 | — | 70% 26% |
| Passes | 528 461–595 443–613 | 426 359–492 342–510 | 954 820–1088 785–1123 | 80% 20% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.12 72.09–80.15 70.80–81.44 | 73.31 68.99–77.64 67.68–78.95 | — | 62% 33% |
| Fouls | 10.88 8.04–13.72 7.29–14.47 | 11.05 8.10–13.99 7.35–14.74 | 21.93 16.14–27.71 14.64–29.21 | 44% 47% |
| Offsides | 2.84 1.68–4.00 1.38–4.30 | 1.51 0.42–2.60 0.13–2.89 | 4.35 2.10–6.60 1.51–7.19 | 65% 16% 18% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.69 0.32–2.95 | 2.22 1.09–3.35 0.80–3.64 | 3.86 1.68–6.04 1.12–6.60 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.59 1.15–4.02 0.76–4.41 | 4.05 2.49–5.60 2.07–6.03 | 6.63 3.64–9.63 2.83–10.44 | 22% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.