Premier League·Regular Season - 21·
Premier League·Regular Season - 21·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.773.16safe0.42–2.360.92–2.631.34–4.98safer0.17–2.610.69–2.850.86–5.46
Shots on target
32%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.375.269.63safe2.50–6.233.52–7.016.03–13.24safer2.01–6.723.06–7.475.07–14.19
Total shots
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8314.2927.12safe8.91–16.7610.73–17.8519.63–34.61safer7.82–17.859.77–18.8117.58–36.66
Shots in box
35%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction8.409.4617.86safe5.45–11.346.78–12.1412.24–23.48safer4.62–12.176.05–12.8810.67–25.05
Blocked shots
47%
15%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.973.647.61safe2.09–5.861.98–5.294.07–11.14safer1.55–6.401.49–5.783.04–12.18
Corners
47%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.224.9810.21safe3.01–7.442.98–6.985.99–14.42safer2.44–8.012.45–7.524.89–15.53
Possession %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction47.5152.33safe40.72–54.3045.55–59.12safer39.05–55.9743.88–60.79
Passes
42%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction459481939safe391–526414–547806–1073safer373–544397–565770–1109
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction70.7276.66safe66.70–74.7572.34–80.99safer65.40–76.0571.03–82.30
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9711.4522.42safe8.13–13.818.50–14.3916.64–28.20safer7.38–14.567.76–15.1415.13–29.71
Offsides
16%
15%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction1.523.054.57safe0.36–2.681.96–4.152.32–6.83safer0.06–2.981.67–4.431.73–7.42
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.782.093.87safe0.73–2.830.97–3.221.69–6.05safer0.46–3.090.67–3.511.14–6.61
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.15safe0.00–0.240.00–0.260.00–0.50safer0.00–0.390.00–0.390.00–0.78
GK saves
49%
16%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.382.956.32safe1.94–4.811.39–4.503.33–9.31safer1.55–5.200.97–4.932.52–10.13
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 0.42–2.36 0.17–2.61 | 1.77 0.92–2.63 0.69–2.85 | 3.16 1.34–4.98 0.86–5.46 | 30% 23% 47% |
| Shots on target | 4.37 2.50–6.23 2.01–6.72 | 5.26 3.52–7.01 3.06–7.47 | 9.63 6.03–13.24 5.07–14.19 | 32% 55% |
| Total shots | 12.83 8.91–16.76 7.82–17.85 | 14.29 10.73–17.85 9.77–18.81 | 27.12 19.63–34.61 17.58–36.66 | 35% 57% |
| Shots in box | 8.40 5.45–11.34 4.62–12.17 | 9.46 6.78–12.14 6.05–12.88 | 17.86 12.24–23.48 10.67–25.05 | 35% 55% |
| Blocked shots | 3.97 2.09–5.86 1.55–6.40 | 3.64 1.98–5.29 1.49–5.78 | 7.61 4.07–11.14 3.04–12.18 | 47% 15% 38% |
| Corners | 5.22 3.01–7.44 2.44–8.01 | 4.98 2.98–6.98 2.45–7.52 | 10.21 5.99–14.42 4.89–15.53 | 47% 41% |
| Possession % | 47.51 40.72–54.30 39.05–55.97 | 52.33 45.55–59.12 43.88–60.79 | — | 37% 59% |
| Passes | 459 391–526 373–544 | 481 414–547 397–565 | 939 806–1073 770–1109 | 42% 57% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.72 66.70–74.75 65.40–76.05 | 76.66 72.34–80.99 71.03–82.30 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 10.97 8.13–13.81 7.38–14.56 | 11.45 8.50–14.39 7.76–15.14 | 22.42 16.64–28.20 15.13–29.71 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.36–2.68 0.06–2.98 | 3.05 1.96–4.15 1.67–4.43 | 4.57 2.32–6.83 1.73–7.42 | 16% 15% 68% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.73–2.83 0.46–3.09 | 2.09 0.97–3.22 0.67–3.51 | 3.87 1.69–6.05 1.14–6.61 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.15 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.78 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.38 1.94–4.81 1.55–5.20 | 2.95 1.39–4.50 0.97–4.93 | 6.32 3.33–9.31 2.52–10.13 | 49% 16% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.