Premier League·Regular Season - 10·
Premier League·Regular Season - 10·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
26%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.121.422.54safe0.15–2.090.56–2.270.72–4.36safer0.00–2.340.33–2.500.24–4.84
Shots on target
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.994.278.26safe2.13–5.862.53–6.014.66–11.87safer1.64–6.352.06–6.483.70–12.82
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9312.5425.47safe9.01–16.868.98–16.1017.98–32.96safer7.92–17.958.02–17.0615.93–35.01
Shots in box
48%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction8.758.4317.18safe5.81–11.705.74–11.1111.56–22.80safer4.98–12.535.01–11.849.99–24.37
Blocked shots
39%
14%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.814.097.90safe1.93–5.692.44–5.754.37–11.44safer1.38–6.231.95–6.243.33–12.47
Corners
45%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction5.285.2110.49safe3.07–7.493.21–7.216.27–14.70safer2.49–8.072.67–7.745.17–15.81
Possession %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction43.0856.64safe36.29–49.8749.86–63.43safer34.62–51.5448.19–65.10
Passes
14%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction373504877safe306–440438–571744–1011safer288–458421–588708–1047
Pass accuracy %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction67.1874.18safe63.15–71.2169.85–78.50safer61.86–72.5068.54–79.81
Fouls
51%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3211.6924.01safe9.48–15.168.74–14.6318.23–29.79safer8.73–15.928.00–15.3816.72–31.30
Offsides
44%
24%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.312.91safe0.44–2.760.22–2.400.65–5.16safer0.13–3.060.00–2.690.06–5.75
Yellow cards
36%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.052.294.34safe1.00–3.101.16–3.422.16–6.52safer0.73–3.360.87–3.711.60–7.07
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.090.20safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.410.00–0.83
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.852.825.67safe1.42–4.291.26–4.382.68–8.66safer1.03–4.680.84–4.801.87–9.48
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 0.15–2.09 0.00–2.34 | 1.42 0.56–2.27 0.33–2.50 | 2.54 0.72–4.36 0.24–4.84 | 30% 26% 44% |
| Shots on target | 3.99 2.13–5.86 1.64–6.35 | 4.27 2.53–6.01 2.06–6.48 | 8.26 4.66–11.87 3.70–12.82 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Total shots | 12.93 9.01–16.86 7.92–17.95 | 12.54 8.98–16.10 8.02–17.06 | 25.47 17.98–32.96 15.93–35.01 | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 8.75 5.81–11.70 4.98–12.53 | 8.43 5.74–11.11 5.01–11.84 | 17.18 11.56–22.80 9.99–24.37 | 48% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 3.81 1.93–5.69 1.38–6.23 | 4.09 2.44–5.75 1.95–6.24 | 7.90 4.37–11.44 3.33–12.47 | 39% 14% 47% |
| Corners | 5.28 3.07–7.49 2.49–8.07 | 5.21 3.21–7.21 2.67–7.74 | 10.49 6.27–14.70 5.17–15.81 | 45% 43% |
| Possession % | 43.08 36.29–49.87 34.62–51.54 | 56.64 49.86–63.43 48.19–65.10 | — | 19% 77% |
| Passes | 373 306–440 288–458 | 504 438–571 421–588 | 877 744–1011 708–1047 | 14% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.18 63.15–71.21 61.86–72.50 | 74.18 69.85–78.50 68.54–79.81 | — | 17% 80% |
| Fouls | 12.32 9.48–15.16 8.73–15.92 | 11.69 8.74–14.63 8.00–15.38 | 24.01 18.23–29.79 16.72–31.30 | 51% 41% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.13–3.06 | 1.31 0.22–2.40 0.00–2.69 | 2.91 0.65–5.16 0.06–5.75 | 44% 24% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 1.00–3.10 0.73–3.36 | 2.29 1.16–3.42 0.87–3.71 | 4.34 2.16–6.52 1.60–7.07 | 36% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.42–4.29 1.03–4.68 | 2.82 1.26–4.38 0.84–4.80 | 5.67 2.68–8.66 1.87–9.48 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.