Premier League·Regular Season - 21·
Premier League·Regular Season - 21·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
24%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.092.78safe0.73–2.670.23–1.940.96–4.61safer0.48–2.920.00–2.170.48–5.09
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.773.978.74safe2.90–6.632.23–5.715.13–12.34safer2.41–7.121.76–6.184.18–13.30
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8611.4425.31safe9.94–17.797.88–15.0117.82–32.79safer8.85–18.886.92–15.9715.77–34.85
Shots in box
57%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction9.258.0617.31safe6.31–12.195.38–10.7411.69–22.93safer5.48–13.024.64–11.4810.12–24.50
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.413.247.64safe2.52–6.291.58–4.894.11–11.18safer1.98–6.831.09–5.383.07–12.21
Corners
66%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction6.154.3410.49safe3.94–8.362.34–6.346.28–14.71safer3.36–8.941.81–6.885.17–15.81
Possession %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction58.7941.03safe52.00–65.5834.25–47.82safer50.33–67.2532.58–49.49
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction524354878safe457–591287–420744–1011safer439–610270–438708–1047
Pass accuracy %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction73.7668.95safe69.73–77.7964.63–73.28safer68.43–79.0863.32–74.59
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5112.6024.11safe8.67–14.359.65–15.5418.33–29.89safer7.91–15.108.91–16.2916.82–31.39
Offsides
32%
25%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.582.91safe0.17–2.490.48–2.670.65–5.16safer0.00–2.790.19–2.960.06–5.75
Yellow cards
31%
19%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.922.404.32safe0.87–2.971.27–3.532.14–6.50safer0.60–3.230.98–3.821.58–7.06
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
33%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.573.085.65safe1.14–4.011.53–4.642.66–8.65safer0.75–4.401.10–5.061.85–9.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 0.73–2.67 0.48–2.92 | 1.09 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.17 | 2.78 0.96–4.61 0.48–5.09 | 52% 24% 24% |
| Shots on target | 4.77 2.90–6.63 2.41–7.12 | 3.97 2.23–5.71 1.76–6.18 | 8.74 5.13–12.34 4.18–13.30 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 13.86 9.94–17.79 8.85–18.88 | 11.44 7.88–15.01 6.92–15.97 | 25.31 17.82–32.79 15.77–34.85 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 9.25 6.31–12.19 5.48–13.02 | 8.06 5.38–10.74 4.64–11.48 | 17.31 11.69–22.93 10.12–24.50 | 57% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 4.41 2.52–6.29 1.98–6.83 | 3.24 1.58–4.89 1.09–5.38 | 7.64 4.11–11.18 3.07–12.21 | 59% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 6.15 3.94–8.36 3.36–8.94 | 4.34 2.34–6.34 1.81–6.88 | 10.49 6.28–14.71 5.17–15.81 | 66% 24% |
| Possession % | 58.79 52.00–65.58 50.33–67.25 | 41.03 34.25–47.82 32.58–49.49 | — | 84% 13% |
| Passes | 524 457–591 439–610 | 354 287–420 270–438 | 878 744–1011 708–1047 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.76 69.73–77.79 68.43–79.08 | 68.95 64.63–73.28 63.32–74.59 | — | 71% 25% |
| Fouls | 11.51 8.67–14.35 7.91–15.10 | 12.60 9.65–15.54 8.91–16.29 | 24.11 18.33–29.89 16.82–31.39 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.33 0.17–2.49 0.00–2.79 | 1.58 0.48–2.67 0.19–2.96 | 2.91 0.65–5.16 0.06–5.75 | 32% 25% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.60–3.23 | 2.40 1.27–3.53 0.98–3.82 | 4.32 2.14–6.50 1.58–7.06 | 31% 19% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.57 1.14–4.01 0.75–4.40 | 3.08 1.53–4.64 1.10–5.06 | 5.65 2.66–8.65 1.85–9.46 | 33% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+