Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
25%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.082.70safe0.65–2.590.22–1.930.87–4.52safer0.40–2.840.00–2.160.40–5.00
Shots on target
49%
13%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.704.228.92safe2.83–6.562.48–5.975.32–12.53safer2.34–7.052.02–6.434.36–13.48
Total shots
59%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5711.9425.51safe9.64–17.498.38–15.5018.02–33.00safer8.55–18.597.42–16.4615.97–35.05
Shots in box
62%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction9.507.7117.22safe6.56–12.455.03–10.3911.59–22.84safer5.73–13.284.29–11.1310.03–24.41
Blocked shots
54%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.263.457.71safe2.38–6.141.79–5.104.17–11.25safer1.84–6.691.30–5.593.14–12.28
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.423.939.35safe3.21–7.631.93–5.935.14–13.57safer2.63–8.211.40–6.474.03–14.67
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction52.0150.01safe45.22–58.8043.23–56.80safer43.55–60.4741.56–58.47
Passes
55%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction461446907safe394–529379–512774–1041safer376–547362–530738–1077
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction74.1974.71safe70.16–78.2270.38–79.03safer68.87–79.5169.07–80.34
Fouls
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction10.0413.0723.11safe7.20–12.8710.13–16.0217.33–28.89safer6.44–13.639.38–16.7715.82–30.40
Offsides
65%
17%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction2.661.354.01safe1.50–3.820.26–2.451.76–6.26safer1.20–4.120.00–2.731.17–6.85
Yellow cards
23%
19%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.512.433.93safe0.46–2.561.30–3.561.76–6.11safer0.19–2.821.01–3.851.20–6.67
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.073.156.22safe1.63–4.511.60–4.713.23–9.22safer1.25–4.891.17–5.132.42–10.03
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.62 0.65–2.59 0.40–2.84 | 1.08 0.22–1.93 0.00–2.16 | 2.70 0.87–4.52 0.40–5.00 | 50% 25% 25% |
| Shots on target | 4.70 2.83–6.56 2.34–7.05 | 4.22 2.48–5.97 2.02–6.43 | 8.92 5.32–12.53 4.36–13.48 | 49% 13% 37% |
| Total shots | 13.57 9.64–17.49 8.55–18.59 | 11.94 8.38–15.50 7.42–16.46 | 25.51 18.02–33.00 15.97–35.05 | 59% 34% |
| Shots in box | 9.50 6.56–12.45 5.73–13.28 | 7.71 5.03–10.39 4.29–11.13 | 17.22 11.59–22.84 10.03–24.41 | 62% 29% |
| Blocked shots | 4.26 2.38–6.14 1.84–6.69 | 3.45 1.79–5.10 1.30–5.59 | 7.71 4.17–11.25 3.14–12.28 | 54% 14% 32% |
| Corners | 5.42 3.21–7.63 2.63–8.21 | 3.93 1.93–5.93 1.40–6.47 | 9.35 5.14–13.57 4.03–14.67 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 52.01 45.22–58.80 43.55–60.47 | 50.01 43.23–56.80 41.56–58.47 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 461 394–529 376–547 | 446 379–512 362–530 | 907 774–1041 738–1077 | 55% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.19 70.16–78.22 68.87–79.51 | 74.71 70.38–79.03 69.07–80.34 | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 10.04 7.20–12.87 6.44–13.63 | 13.07 10.13–16.02 9.38–16.77 | 23.11 17.33–28.89 15.82–30.40 | 23% 70% |
| Offsides | 2.66 1.50–3.82 1.20–4.12 | 1.35 0.26–2.45 0.00–2.73 | 4.01 1.76–6.26 1.17–6.85 | 65% 17% 18% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.46–2.56 0.19–2.82 | 2.43 1.30–3.56 1.01–3.85 | 3.93 1.76–6.11 1.20–6.67 | 23% 19% 58% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.07 1.63–4.51 1.25–4.89 | 3.15 1.60–4.71 1.17–5.13 | 6.22 3.23–9.22 2.42–10.03 | 41% 16% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.