Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.182.66safe0.51–2.450.33–2.040.84–4.48safer0.26–2.700.10–2.260.36–4.96
Shots on target
55%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.004.089.09safe3.14–6.872.34–5.835.48–12.69safer2.65–7.361.88–6.294.53–13.65
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction16.4111.7028.11safe12.49–20.348.14–15.2620.62–35.60safer11.40–21.437.18–16.2218.57–37.65
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.967.4418.40safe8.02–13.904.76–10.1212.78–24.02safer7.19–14.734.02–10.8611.21–25.59
Blocked shots
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.163.658.80safe3.27–7.041.99–5.305.27–12.34safer2.73–7.581.50–5.794.23–13.37
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction6.394.7911.18safe4.18–8.602.79–6.796.96–15.39safer3.60–9.182.25–7.325.85–16.50
Possession %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction46.6752.49safe39.88–53.4645.71–59.28safer38.21–55.1344.03–60.95
Passes
30%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction405467872safe338–473401–534739–1006safer320–491383–551703–1042
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction67.3475.37safe63.31–71.3771.05–79.70safer62.02–72.6669.74–81.01
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8711.9222.79safe8.04–13.718.98–14.8717.01–28.58safer7.28–14.478.23–15.6115.51–30.08
Offsides
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.272.89safe0.46–2.780.18–2.360.63–5.14safer0.16–3.080.00–2.650.04–5.73
Yellow cards
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.913.48safe0.52–2.620.78–3.041.31–5.66safer0.26–2.890.49–3.330.75–6.22
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.080.14safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77
GK saves
35%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.713.165.87safe1.27–4.151.60–4.712.88–8.86safer0.89–4.531.18–5.142.06–9.67
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.45 0.26–2.70 | 1.18 0.33–2.04 0.10–2.26 | 2.66 0.84–4.48 0.36–4.96 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.00 3.14–6.87 2.65–7.36 | 4.08 2.34–5.83 1.88–6.29 | 9.09 5.48–12.69 4.53–13.65 | 55% 32% |
| Total shots | 16.41 12.49–20.34 11.40–21.43 | 11.70 8.14–15.26 7.18–16.22 | 28.11 20.62–35.60 18.57–37.65 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 10.96 8.02–13.90 7.19–14.73 | 7.44 4.76–10.12 4.02–10.86 | 18.40 12.78–24.02 11.21–25.59 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 5.16 3.27–7.04 2.73–7.58 | 3.65 1.99–5.30 1.50–5.79 | 8.80 5.27–12.34 4.23–13.37 | 63% 25% |
| Corners | 6.39 4.18–8.60 3.60–9.18 | 4.79 2.79–6.79 2.25–7.32 | 11.18 6.96–15.39 5.85–16.50 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 46.67 39.88–53.46 38.21–55.13 | 52.49 45.71–59.28 44.03–60.95 | — | 34% 61% |
| Passes | 405 338–473 320–491 | 467 401–534 383–551 | 872 739–1006 703–1042 | 30% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.34 63.31–71.37 62.02–72.66 | 75.37 71.05–79.70 69.74–81.01 | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 10.87 8.04–13.71 7.28–14.47 | 11.92 8.98–14.87 8.23–15.61 | 22.79 17.01–28.58 15.51–30.08 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.46–2.78 0.16–3.08 | 1.27 0.18–2.36 0.00–2.65 | 2.89 0.63–5.14 0.04–5.73 | 46% 24% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.52–2.62 0.26–2.89 | 1.91 0.78–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 3.48 1.31–5.66 0.75–6.22 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.77 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.71 1.27–4.15 0.89–4.53 | 3.16 1.60–4.71 1.18–5.14 | 5.87 2.88–8.86 2.06–9.67 | 35% 17% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.