Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
26%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.322.62safe0.33–2.270.46–2.170.80–4.44safer0.08–2.520.24–2.400.32–4.92
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.114.348.46safe2.25–5.982.60–6.084.85–12.06safer1.76–6.472.13–6.553.90–13.02
Total shots
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0414.0528.09safe10.11–17.9610.48–17.6120.60–35.57safer9.02–19.059.53–18.5718.55–37.62
Shots in box
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction8.549.6718.21safe5.59–11.486.99–12.3512.58–23.83safer4.76–12.316.25–13.0911.02–25.40
Blocked shots
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.374.388.75safe2.49–6.252.73–6.035.21–12.29safer1.94–6.792.24–6.534.18–13.32
Corners
46%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction5.425.2210.64safe3.21–7.643.22–7.226.43–14.86safer2.64–8.212.69–7.755.32–15.96
Possession %
58%
38%
homeawayprediction51.9247.65safe45.13–58.7140.86–54.43safer43.46–60.3839.19–56.10
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction477400876safe409–544333–466743–1010safer391–562316–484707–1046
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction69.8971.52safe65.86–73.9267.19–75.84safer64.57–75.2265.88–77.15
Fouls
40%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4611.1021.56safe7.62–13.308.16–14.0515.78–27.34safer6.87–14.057.41–14.7914.27–28.85
Offsides
52%
20%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.291.663.95safe1.13–3.450.56–2.751.70–6.20safer0.83–3.760.27–3.041.11–6.79
Yellow cards
31%
24%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.683.06safe0.32–2.420.55–2.810.88–5.23safer0.06–2.690.26–3.100.32–5.79
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.060.12safe0.00–0.220.00–0.250.00–0.46safer0.00–0.370.00–0.380.00–0.75
GK saves
46%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.882.575.45safe1.44–4.321.01–4.132.46–8.44safer1.06–4.700.59–4.551.64–9.25
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.33–2.27 0.08–2.52 | 1.32 0.46–2.17 0.24–2.40 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.32–4.92 | 36% 26% 37% |
| Shots on target | 4.11 2.25–5.98 1.76–6.47 | 4.34 2.60–6.08 2.13–6.55 | 8.46 4.85–12.06 3.90–13.02 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 14.04 10.11–17.96 9.02–19.05 | 14.05 10.48–17.61 9.53–18.57 | 28.09 20.60–35.57 18.55–37.62 | 46% 46% |
| Shots in box | 8.54 5.59–11.48 4.76–12.31 | 9.67 6.99–12.35 6.25–13.09 | 18.21 12.58–23.83 11.02–25.40 | 35% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 4.37 2.49–6.25 1.94–6.79 | 4.38 2.73–6.03 2.24–6.53 | 8.75 5.21–12.29 4.18–13.32 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Corners | 5.42 3.21–7.64 2.64–8.21 | 5.22 3.22–7.22 2.69–7.75 | 10.64 6.43–14.86 5.32–15.96 | 46% 41% |
| Possession % | 51.92 45.13–58.71 43.46–60.38 | 47.65 40.86–54.43 39.19–56.10 | — | 58% 38% |
| Passes | 477 409–544 391–562 | 400 333–466 316–484 | 876 743–1010 707–1046 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.89 65.86–73.92 64.57–75.22 | 71.52 67.19–75.84 65.88–77.15 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 10.46 7.62–13.30 6.87–14.05 | 11.10 8.16–14.05 7.41–14.79 | 21.56 15.78–27.34 14.27–28.85 | 40% 51% |
| Offsides | 2.29 1.13–3.45 0.83–3.76 | 1.66 0.56–2.75 0.27–3.04 | 3.95 1.70–6.20 1.11–6.79 | 52% 20% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.37 0.32–2.42 0.06–2.69 | 1.68 0.55–2.81 0.26–3.10 | 3.06 0.88–5.23 0.32–5.79 | 31% 24% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.38 | 0.12 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.75 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.44–4.32 1.06–4.70 | 2.57 1.01–4.13 0.59–4.55 | 5.45 2.46–8.44 1.64–9.25 | 46% 17% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+