Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
23%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.743.13safe0.42–2.360.88–2.591.31–4.95safer0.17–2.610.66–2.820.83–5.43
Shots on target
45%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.014.879.88safe3.15–6.873.13–6.616.28–13.49safer2.66–7.362.66–7.085.32–14.44
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2213.3128.53safe11.29–19.149.75–16.8721.04–36.01safer10.20–20.238.79–17.8318.99–38.06
Shots in box
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction10.119.5019.62safe7.17–13.066.82–12.1914.00–25.24safer6.34–13.896.09–12.9212.43–26.81
Blocked shots
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.544.038.57safe2.66–6.422.38–5.695.04–12.11safer2.11–6.971.89–6.184.00–13.14
Corners
57%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.954.8510.79safe3.73–8.162.85–6.856.58–15.01safer3.16–8.732.32–7.385.47–16.11
Possession %
63%
33%
homeawayprediction53.3746.71safe46.58–60.1639.93–53.50safer44.91–61.8338.26–55.17
Passes
63%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction482442924safe414–549376–509790–1058safer396–567358–526755–1093
Pass accuracy %
62%
34%
homeawayprediction76.3473.54safe72.31–80.3769.22–77.87safer71.02–81.6667.91–79.18
Fouls
53%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9611.0423.01safe9.13–14.808.10–13.9917.22–28.79safer8.37–15.567.35–14.7415.72–30.29
Offsides
33%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.631.953.57safe0.47–2.790.85–3.041.32–5.83safer0.17–3.090.57–3.330.73–6.42
Yellow cards
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.802.234.03safe0.75–2.851.10–3.361.86–6.21safer0.49–3.120.81–3.651.30–6.77
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.090.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.82
GK saves
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.013.326.33safe1.57–4.451.77–4.883.34–9.33safer1.19–4.831.34–5.312.53–10.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 0.42–2.36 0.17–2.61 | 1.74 0.88–2.59 0.66–2.82 | 3.13 1.31–4.95 0.83–5.43 | 31% 23% 46% |
| Shots on target | 5.01 3.15–6.87 2.66–7.36 | 4.87 3.13–6.61 2.66–7.08 | 9.88 6.28–13.49 5.32–14.44 | 45% 42% |
| Total shots | 15.22 11.29–19.14 10.20–20.23 | 13.31 9.75–16.87 8.79–17.83 | 28.53 21.04–36.01 18.99–38.06 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 10.11 7.17–13.06 6.34–13.89 | 9.50 6.82–12.19 6.09–12.92 | 19.62 14.00–25.24 12.43–26.81 | 51% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 4.54 2.66–6.42 2.11–6.97 | 4.03 2.38–5.69 1.89–6.18 | 8.57 5.04–12.11 4.00–13.14 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Corners | 5.95 3.73–8.16 3.16–8.73 | 4.85 2.85–6.85 2.32–7.38 | 10.79 6.58–15.01 5.47–16.11 | 57% 31% |
| Possession % | 53.37 46.58–60.16 44.91–61.83 | 46.71 39.93–53.50 38.26–55.17 | — | 63% 33% |
| Passes | 482 414–549 396–567 | 442 376–509 358–526 | 924 790–1058 755–1093 | 63% 37% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.34 72.31–80.37 71.02–81.66 | 73.54 69.22–77.87 67.91–79.18 | — | 62% 34% |
| Fouls | 11.96 9.13–14.80 8.37–15.56 | 11.04 8.10–13.99 7.35–14.74 | 23.01 17.22–28.79 15.72–30.29 | 53% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.63 0.47–2.79 0.17–3.09 | 1.95 0.85–3.04 0.57–3.33 | 3.57 1.32–5.83 0.73–6.42 | 33% 22% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.85 0.49–3.12 | 2.23 1.10–3.36 0.81–3.65 | 4.03 1.86–6.21 1.30–6.77 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.01 1.57–4.45 1.19–4.83 | 3.32 1.77–4.88 1.34–5.31 | 6.33 3.34–9.33 2.53–10.14 | 37% 16% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.