Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
24%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.741.042.78safe0.77–2.700.19–1.890.95–4.60safer0.52–2.950.00–2.120.47–5.08
Shots on target
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.374.179.53safe3.50–7.232.43–5.915.93–13.14safer3.01–7.721.96–6.384.97–14.09
Total shots
77%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7611.4427.21safe11.84–19.697.88–15.0119.72–34.69safer10.75–20.786.92–15.9617.67–36.75
Shots in box
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction10.838.2219.05safe7.89–13.775.53–10.9013.42–24.67safer7.06–14.604.80–11.6311.86–26.24
Blocked shots
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.963.208.16safe3.07–6.841.55–4.864.62–11.70safer2.53–7.381.06–5.353.59–12.73
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction6.644.3911.04safe4.43–8.862.39–6.396.82–15.25safer3.86–9.431.86–6.935.72–16.36
Possession %
86%
homeawayprediction59.5740.38safe52.78–66.3633.59–47.16safer51.11–68.0331.92–48.84
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction569380949safe502–637313–446816–1083safer484–655296–464780–1119
Pass accuracy %
77%
19%
homeawayprediction75.4769.28safe71.44–79.5064.95–73.60safer70.15–80.7963.64–74.91
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1311.2121.34safe7.29–12.978.26–14.1515.55–27.12safer6.54–13.727.51–14.9014.05–28.62
Offsides
34%
25%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.482.80safe0.17–2.490.38–2.570.55–5.06safer0.00–2.790.10–2.860.00–5.65
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.602.023.62safe0.55–2.640.89–3.151.44–5.79safer0.28–2.910.60–3.440.88–6.35
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.390.00–0.76
GK saves
29%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.653.536.18safe1.21–4.091.97–5.083.18–9.17safer0.83–4.471.55–5.512.37–9.98
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.74 0.77–2.70 0.52–2.95 | 1.04 0.19–1.89 0.00–2.12 | 2.78 0.95–4.60 0.47–5.08 | 54% 24% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.37 3.50–7.23 3.01–7.72 | 4.17 2.43–5.91 1.96–6.38 | 9.53 5.93–13.14 4.97–14.09 | 59% 29% |
| Total shots | 15.76 11.84–19.69 10.75–20.78 | 11.44 7.88–15.01 6.92–15.96 | 27.21 19.72–34.69 17.67–36.75 | 77% 18% |
| Shots in box | 10.83 7.89–13.77 7.06–14.60 | 8.22 5.53–10.90 4.80–11.63 | 19.05 13.42–24.67 11.86–26.24 | 69% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 4.96 3.07–6.84 2.53–7.38 | 3.20 1.55–4.86 1.06–5.35 | 8.16 4.62–11.70 3.59–12.73 | 67% 21% |
| Corners | 6.64 4.43–8.86 3.86–9.43 | 4.39 2.39–6.39 1.86–6.93 | 11.04 6.82–15.25 5.72–16.36 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 59.57 52.78–66.36 51.11–68.03 | 40.38 33.59–47.16 31.92–48.84 | — | 86% |
| Passes | 569 502–637 484–655 | 380 313–446 296–464 | 949 816–1083 780–1119 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.47 71.44–79.50 70.15–80.79 | 69.28 64.95–73.60 63.64–74.91 | — | 77% 19% |
| Fouls | 10.13 7.29–12.97 6.54–13.72 | 11.21 8.26–14.15 7.51–14.90 | 21.34 15.55–27.12 14.05–28.62 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.33 0.17–2.49 0.00–2.79 | 1.48 0.38–2.57 0.10–2.86 | 2.80 0.55–5.06 0.00–5.65 | 34% 25% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.55–2.64 0.28–2.91 | 2.02 0.89–3.15 0.60–3.44 | 3.62 1.44–5.79 0.88–6.35 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.39 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.76 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.21–4.09 0.83–4.47 | 3.53 1.97–5.08 1.55–5.51 | 6.18 3.18–9.17 2.37–9.98 | 29% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.