Premier League·Regular Season - 36·
Premier League·Regular Season - 36·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.803.19safe0.42–2.360.95–2.661.37–5.02safer0.17–2.610.72–2.890.89–5.50
Shots on target
33%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.375.249.61safe2.51–6.243.49–6.986.01–13.22safer2.02–6.733.03–7.455.05–14.17
Total shots
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7914.5027.29safe8.87–16.7210.94–18.0619.81–34.78safer7.78–17.819.98–19.0217.76–36.83
Shots in box
32%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction8.4910.0218.51safe5.55–11.437.34–12.7012.88–24.13safer4.72–12.266.60–13.4411.32–25.70
Blocked shots
31%
14%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.624.488.10safe1.73–5.502.83–6.144.56–11.63safer1.19–6.042.34–6.633.53–12.67
Corners
48%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.234.8910.12safe3.01–7.442.89–6.895.91–14.33safer2.44–8.012.36–7.434.80–15.44
Possession %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction42.8758.02safe36.08–49.6651.23–64.80safer34.41–51.3349.56–66.47
Passes
14%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction406535941safe339–473469–601807–1075safer321–491451–619772–1110
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction65.6979.08safe61.66–69.7274.76–83.41safer60.37–71.0173.45–84.72
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1711.4921.66safe7.33–13.018.55–14.4415.88–27.44safer6.58–13.777.80–15.1814.38–28.95
Offsides
53%
21%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.071.403.48safe0.91–3.230.31–2.501.22–5.73safer0.61–3.540.02–2.780.63–6.32
Yellow cards
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.913.40safe0.44–2.540.78–3.041.22–5.58safer0.17–2.800.49–3.330.66–6.13
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.172.755.92safe1.73–4.611.19–4.312.93–8.91safer1.35–4.990.77–4.732.12–9.73
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 0.42–2.36 0.17–2.61 | 1.80 0.95–2.66 0.72–2.89 | 3.19 1.37–5.02 0.89–5.50 | 30% 23% 47% |
| Shots on target | 4.37 2.51–6.24 2.02–6.73 | 5.24 3.49–6.98 3.03–7.45 | 9.61 6.01–13.22 5.05–14.17 | 33% 55% |
| Total shots | 12.79 8.87–16.72 7.78–17.81 | 14.50 10.94–18.06 9.98–19.02 | 27.29 19.81–34.78 17.76–36.83 | 34% 59% |
| Shots in box | 8.49 5.55–11.43 4.72–12.26 | 10.02 7.34–12.70 6.60–13.44 | 18.51 12.88–24.13 11.32–25.70 | 32% 59% |
| Blocked shots | 3.62 1.73–5.50 1.19–6.04 | 4.48 2.83–6.14 2.34–6.63 | 8.10 4.56–11.63 3.53–12.67 | 31% 14% 55% |
| Corners | 5.23 3.01–7.44 2.44–8.01 | 4.89 2.89–6.89 2.36–7.43 | 10.12 5.91–14.33 4.80–15.44 | 48% 40% |
| Possession % | 42.87 36.08–49.66 34.41–51.33 | 58.02 51.23–64.80 49.56–66.47 | — | 17% 80% |
| Passes | 406 339–473 321–491 | 535 469–601 451–619 | 941 807–1075 772–1110 | 14% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.69 61.66–69.72 60.37–71.01 | 79.08 74.76–83.41 73.45–84.72 | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 10.17 7.33–13.01 6.58–13.77 | 11.49 8.55–14.44 7.80–15.18 | 21.66 15.88–27.44 14.38–28.95 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 2.07 0.91–3.23 0.61–3.54 | 1.40 0.31–2.50 0.02–2.78 | 3.48 1.22–5.73 0.63–6.32 | 53% 21% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.49 0.44–2.54 0.17–2.80 | 1.91 0.78–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 3.40 1.22–5.58 0.66–6.13 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.17 1.73–4.61 1.35–4.99 | 2.75 1.19–4.31 0.77–4.73 | 5.92 2.93–8.91 2.12–9.73 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.