Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.432.97safe0.58–2.510.57–2.281.15–4.79safer0.33–2.760.34–2.510.67–5.27
Shots on target
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.734.699.42safe2.86–6.592.95–6.435.81–13.02safer2.38–7.082.48–6.904.86–13.98
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1112.3326.43safe10.18–18.038.77–15.8918.95–33.92safer9.09–19.127.81–16.8516.90–35.97
Shots in box
50%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction9.458.9218.37safe6.51–12.396.24–11.6012.75–23.99safer5.68–13.225.50–12.3411.18–25.56
Blocked shots
51%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.843.297.14safe1.96–5.721.64–4.953.60–10.67safer1.42–6.271.15–5.442.56–11.71
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.394.7910.18safe3.18–7.602.79–6.795.97–14.39safer2.60–8.182.26–7.334.86–15.50
Possession %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction53.7646.96safe46.97–60.5540.18–53.75safer45.30–62.2238.50–55.42
Passes
67%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction488434922safe421–555367–500788–1055safer403–573350–518752–1091
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction76.3973.86safe72.36–80.4269.54–78.19safer71.06–81.7168.23–79.50
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2110.6820.89safe7.37–13.057.73–13.6215.11–26.67safer6.62–13.816.98–14.3713.60–28.18
Offsides
50%
20%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.381.874.24safe1.22–3.540.77–2.961.99–6.50safer0.92–3.840.49–3.251.40–7.09
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.943.82safe0.83–2.930.81–3.071.64–6.00safer0.56–3.190.52–3.361.08–6.55
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.090.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.50safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.083.196.27safe1.64–4.511.64–4.753.28–9.26safer1.25–4.901.21–5.172.47–10.08
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 0.58–2.51 0.33–2.76 | 1.43 0.57–2.28 0.34–2.51 | 2.97 1.15–4.79 0.67–5.27 | 40% 24% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.73 2.86–6.59 2.38–7.08 | 4.69 2.95–6.43 2.48–6.90 | 9.42 5.81–13.02 4.86–13.98 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Total shots | 14.11 10.18–18.03 9.09–19.12 | 12.33 8.77–15.89 7.81–16.85 | 26.43 18.95–33.92 16.90–35.97 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.45 6.51–12.39 5.68–13.22 | 8.92 6.24–11.60 5.50–12.34 | 18.37 12.75–23.99 11.18–25.56 | 50% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.84 1.96–5.72 1.42–6.27 | 3.29 1.64–4.95 1.15–5.44 | 7.14 3.60–10.67 2.56–11.71 | 51% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.39 3.18–7.60 2.60–8.18 | 4.79 2.79–6.79 2.26–7.33 | 10.18 5.97–14.39 4.86–15.50 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 53.76 46.97–60.55 45.30–62.22 | 46.96 40.18–53.75 38.50–55.42 | — | 63% 32% |
| Passes | 488 421–555 403–573 | 434 367–500 350–518 | 922 788–1055 752–1091 | 67% 32% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.39 72.36–80.42 71.06–81.71 | 73.86 69.54–78.19 68.23–79.50 | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 10.21 7.37–13.05 6.62–13.81 | 10.68 7.73–13.62 6.98–14.37 | 20.89 15.11–26.67 13.60–28.18 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 2.38 1.22–3.54 0.92–3.84 | 1.87 0.77–2.96 0.49–3.25 | 4.24 1.99–6.50 1.40–7.09 | 50% 20% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 0.83–2.93 0.56–3.19 | 1.94 0.81–3.07 0.52–3.36 | 3.82 1.64–6.00 1.08–6.55 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.08 1.64–4.51 1.25–4.90 | 3.19 1.64–4.75 1.21–5.17 | 6.27 3.28–9.26 2.47–10.08 | 40% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.