Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: E. Lambrechts
Goals
24%
25%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.051.632.67safe0.09–2.010.77–2.490.85–4.50safer0.00–2.270.52–2.730.35–5.00actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.474.758.22safe1.61–5.333.04–6.454.65–11.78safer1.11–5.822.57–6.923.69–12.75actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
13%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction8.8813.6522.54safe5.18–12.5910.27–17.0315.45–29.62safer4.15–13.629.34–17.9613.49–31.58actual15.0014.0029.00
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction5.629.7315.35safe3.10–8.137.43–12.0410.53–20.17safer2.24–9.006.64–12.838.87–21.83actual11.009.0020.00
Blocked shots
19%
14%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction2.213.816.03safe0.63–3.802.40–5.233.03–9.03safer0.10–4.331.91–5.712.01–10.05actual4.005.009.00
Corners
28%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction4.025.279.30safe1.82–6.233.30–7.255.11–13.48safer1.22–6.822.76–7.793.98–14.61actual10.005.0015.00
Possession %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction43.4557.84safe37.13–49.7651.52–64.16safer35.53–51.3649.92–65.75actual34.0066.00
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction331484815safe266–396419–548685–945safer248–414402–566650–980actual257553810
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction66.9179.10safe62.70–71.1374.59–83.61safer61.39–72.4373.26–84.94
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9313.0925.02safe9.07–14.7810.15–16.0419.22–30.82safer8.18–15.679.23–16.9617.42–32.63actual13.0021.0034.00
Offsides
72%
14%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction3.381.604.98safe2.17–4.590.44–2.772.61–7.36safer1.83–4.930.11–3.101.94–8.03actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.852.324.17safe0.80–2.911.20–3.442.00–6.35safer0.53–3.180.91–3.731.44–6.91actual1.004.005.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
65%
15%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction3.542.115.66safe2.13–4.960.56–3.672.69–8.62safer1.74–5.350.13–4.101.87–9.44actual2.004.006.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.05 0.09–2.01 0.00–2.27 | 0.00 | 1.63 0.77–2.49 0.52–2.73 | 1.00 | 2.67 0.85–4.50 0.35–5.00 | 1.00 | 24% 25% 51% |
| Shots on target | 3.47 1.61–5.33 1.11–5.82 | 4.00 | 4.75 3.04–6.45 2.57–6.92 | 3.00 | 8.22 4.65–11.78 3.69–12.75 | 7.00 | 27% 61% |
| Total shots | 8.88 5.18–12.59 4.15–13.62 | 15.00 | 13.65 10.27–17.03 9.34–17.96 | 14.00 | 22.54 15.45–29.62 13.49–31.58 | 29.00 | 13% 82% |
| Shots in box | 5.62 3.10–8.13 2.24–9.00 | 11.00 | 9.73 7.43–12.04 6.64–12.83 | 9.00 | 15.35 10.53–20.17 8.87–21.83 | 20.00 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 2.21 0.63–3.80 0.10–4.33 | 4.00 | 3.81 2.40–5.23 1.91–5.71 | 5.00 | 6.03 3.03–9.03 2.01–10.05 | 9.00 | 19% 14% 67% |
| Corners | 4.02 1.82–6.23 1.22–6.82 | 10.00 | 5.27 3.30–7.25 2.76–7.79 | 5.00 | 9.30 5.11–13.48 3.98–14.61 | 15.00 | 28% 60% |
| Possession % | 43.45 37.13–49.76 35.53–51.36 | 34.00 | 57.84 51.52–64.16 49.92–65.75 | 66.00 | — | — | 17% 80% |
| Passes | 331 266–396 248–414 | 257 | 484 419–548 402–566 | 553 | 815 685–945 650–980 | 810 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.91 62.70–71.13 61.39–72.43 | — | 79.10 74.59–83.61 73.26–84.94 | — | — | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 11.93 9.07–14.78 8.18–15.67 | 13.00 | 13.09 10.15–16.04 9.23–16.96 | 21.00 | 25.02 19.22–30.82 17.42–32.63 | 34.00 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 3.38 2.17–4.59 1.83–4.93 | 2.00 | 1.60 0.44–2.77 0.11–3.10 | 1.00 | 4.98 2.61–7.36 1.94–8.03 | 3.00 | 72% 14% 15% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.80–2.91 0.53–3.18 | 1.00 | 2.32 1.20–3.44 0.91–3.73 | 4.00 | 4.17 2.00–6.35 1.44–6.91 | 5.00 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.54 2.13–4.96 1.74–5.35 | 2.00 | 2.11 0.56–3.67 0.13–4.10 | 4.00 | 5.66 2.69–8.62 1.87–9.44 | 6.00 | 65% 15% 20% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.