Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: K. van Damme
Goals
21%
23%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.011.792.80safe0.05–1.970.93–2.650.97–4.62safer0.00–2.230.68–2.890.47–5.12actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
26%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction3.765.208.96safe1.90–5.623.49–6.915.40–12.52safer1.40–6.113.02–7.384.43–13.49actual4.000.004.00
Total shots
17%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6114.9025.50safe6.90–14.3111.52–18.2818.42–32.59safer5.87–15.3410.59–19.2116.46–34.55actual10.0011.0021.00
Shots in box
16%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction6.5710.0916.66safe4.05–9.097.79–12.3911.84–21.48safer3.19–9.956.99–13.1910.18–23.14actual5.007.0012.00
Blocked shots
27%
14%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.944.067.00safe1.36–4.522.64–5.474.00–10.00safer0.82–5.062.16–5.962.98–11.02actual2.004.006.00
Corners
24%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction4.135.869.99safe1.92–6.333.88–7.845.81–14.17safer1.33–6.933.35–8.384.67–15.31actual1.004.005.00
Possession %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction47.6753.66safe41.35–53.9847.34–59.98safer39.75–55.5845.74–61.58actual40.0060.00
Passes
27%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction386458845safe321–451394–523715–975safer303–469376–541680–1010actual388558946
Pass accuracy %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction66.8773.29safe62.66–71.0968.79–77.80safer61.35–72.3967.46–79.13
Fouls
32%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction9.5211.0820.60safe6.66–12.388.13–14.0214.79–26.40safer5.78–13.267.21–14.9412.99–28.20actual7.008.0015.00
Offsides
37%
22%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.783.47safe0.48–2.900.61–2.941.10–5.84safer0.14–3.250.28–3.270.42–6.52actual4.002.006.00
Yellow cards
46%
20%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.211.894.10safe1.16–3.270.77–3.011.92–6.27safer0.88–3.540.48–3.301.36–6.84actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
55%
16%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.192.365.55safe1.77–4.600.80–3.912.58–8.51safer1.39–4.990.37–4.341.76–9.34actual0.003.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.01 0.05–1.97 0.00–2.23 | 2.00 | 1.79 0.93–2.65 0.68–2.89 | 0.00 | 2.80 0.97–4.62 0.47–5.12 | 2.00 | 21% 23% 56% |
| Shots on target | 3.76 1.90–5.62 1.40–6.11 | 4.00 | 5.20 3.49–6.91 3.02–7.38 | 0.00 | 8.96 5.40–12.52 4.43–13.49 | 4.00 | 26% 62% |
| Total shots | 10.61 6.90–14.31 5.87–15.34 | 10.00 | 14.90 11.52–18.28 10.59–19.21 | 11.00 | 25.50 18.42–32.59 16.46–34.55 | 21.00 | 17% 77% |
| Shots in box | 6.57 4.05–9.09 3.19–9.95 | 5.00 | 10.09 7.79–12.39 6.99–13.19 | 7.00 | 16.66 11.84–21.48 10.18–23.14 | 12.00 | 16% 77% |
| Blocked shots | 2.94 1.36–4.52 0.82–5.06 | 2.00 | 4.06 2.64–5.47 2.16–5.96 | 4.00 | 7.00 4.00–10.00 2.98–11.02 | 6.00 | 27% 14% 59% |
| Corners | 4.13 1.92–6.33 1.33–6.93 | 1.00 | 5.86 3.88–7.84 3.35–8.38 | 4.00 | 9.99 5.81–14.17 4.67–15.31 | 5.00 | 24% 65% |
| Possession % | 47.67 41.35–53.98 39.75–55.58 | 40.00 | 53.66 47.34–59.98 45.74–61.58 | 60.00 | — | — | 33% 62% |
| Passes | 386 321–451 303–469 | 388 | 458 394–523 376–541 | 558 | 845 715–975 680–1010 | 946 | 27% 73% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.87 62.66–71.09 61.35–72.39 | — | 73.29 68.79–77.80 67.46–79.13 | — | — | — | 19% 77% |
| Fouls | 9.52 6.66–12.38 5.78–13.26 | 7.00 | 11.08 8.13–14.02 7.21–14.94 | 8.00 | 20.60 14.79–26.40 12.99–28.20 | 15.00 | 32% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.48–2.90 0.14–3.25 | 4.00 | 1.78 0.61–2.94 0.28–3.27 | 2.00 | 3.47 1.10–5.84 0.42–6.52 | 6.00 | 37% 22% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 2.21 1.16–3.27 0.88–3.54 | 2.00 | 1.89 0.77–3.01 0.48–3.30 | 0.00 | 4.10 1.92–6.27 1.36–6.84 | 2.00 | 46% 20% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 3.19 1.77–4.60 1.39–4.99 | 0.00 | 2.36 0.80–3.91 0.37–4.34 | 3.00 | 5.55 2.58–8.51 1.76–9.34 | 3.00 | 55% 16% 28% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.