Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: B. Put
Goals
47%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.343.07safe0.76–2.690.48–2.201.24–4.89safer0.50–2.950.23–2.450.74–5.39actual4.002.006.00
Shots on target
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.654.069.71safe3.79–7.502.35–5.776.14–13.27safer3.29–8.001.88–6.245.18–14.24actual7.006.0013.00
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction16.5111.5028.01safe12.80–20.218.12–14.8820.93–35.09safer11.77–21.247.19–15.8118.96–37.05actual10.0012.0022.00
Shots in box
70%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction10.898.0818.97safe8.37–13.405.78–10.3814.15–23.79safer7.51–14.274.98–11.1812.49–25.45actual7.008.0015.00
Blocked shots
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.003.048.04safe3.41–6.581.63–4.465.04–11.04safer2.88–7.111.14–4.944.02–12.06actual0.002.002.00
Corners
59%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction6.204.9211.12safe4.00–8.412.94–6.906.93–15.30safer3.40–9.002.40–7.435.80–16.43actual1.007.008.00
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction52.3947.61safe46.08–58.7141.29–53.92safer44.48–60.3139.69–55.52actual43.0057.00
Passes
64%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction443401844safe377–508337–466714–974safer360–526319–484679–1009actual421553974
Pass accuracy %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction69.9869.20safe65.77–74.2064.70–73.71safer64.46–75.5063.36–75.04
Fouls
48%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4211.1222.54safe8.56–14.288.18–14.0716.74–28.35safer7.68–15.167.26–14.9914.94–30.15actual8.007.0015.00
Offsides
32%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.912.334.24safe0.70–3.121.17–3.491.87–6.61safer0.35–3.460.84–3.831.19–7.29actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
31%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.033.65safe0.57–2.680.91–3.151.47–5.83safer0.29–2.950.62–3.440.91–6.39actual0.000.000.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.210.00–0.270.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.410.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.443.866.30safe1.03–3.852.31–5.423.33–9.27safer0.64–4.241.88–5.852.51–10.09actual4.003.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.76–2.69 0.50–2.95 | 4.00 | 1.34 0.48–2.20 0.23–2.45 | 2.00 | 3.07 1.24–4.89 0.74–5.39 | 6.00 | 47% 24% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.65 3.79–7.50 3.29–8.00 | 7.00 | 4.06 2.35–5.77 1.88–6.24 | 6.00 | 9.71 6.14–13.27 5.18–14.24 | 13.00 | 64% 25% |
| Total shots | 16.51 12.80–20.21 11.77–21.24 | 10.00 | 11.50 8.12–14.88 7.19–15.81 | 12.00 | 28.01 20.93–35.09 18.96–37.05 | 22.00 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 10.89 8.37–13.40 7.51–14.27 | 7.00 | 8.08 5.78–10.38 4.98–11.18 | 8.00 | 18.97 14.15–23.79 12.49–25.45 | 15.00 | 70% 22% |
| Blocked shots | 5.00 3.41–6.58 2.88–7.11 | 0.00 | 3.04 1.63–4.46 1.14–4.94 | 2.00 | 8.04 5.04–11.04 4.02–12.06 | 2.00 | 70% 19% |
| Corners | 6.20 4.00–8.41 3.40–9.00 | 1.00 | 4.92 2.94–6.90 2.40–7.43 | 7.00 | 11.12 6.93–15.30 5.80–16.43 | 8.00 | 59% 30% |
| Possession % | 52.39 46.08–58.71 44.48–60.31 | 43.00 | 47.61 41.29–53.92 39.69–55.52 | 57.00 | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 443 377–508 360–526 | 421 | 401 337–466 319–484 | 553 | 844 714–974 679–1009 | 974 | 64% 36% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.98 65.77–74.20 64.46–75.50 | — | 69.20 64.70–73.71 63.36–75.04 | — | — | — | 51% 44% |
| Fouls | 11.42 8.56–14.28 7.68–15.16 | 8.00 | 11.12 8.18–14.07 7.26–14.99 | 7.00 | 22.54 16.74–28.35 14.94–30.15 | 15.00 | 48% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.91 0.70–3.12 0.35–3.46 | 1.00 | 2.33 1.17–3.49 0.84–3.83 | 1.00 | 4.24 1.87–6.61 1.19–7.29 | 2.00 | 32% 20% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.57–2.68 0.29–2.95 | 0.00 | 2.03 0.91–3.15 0.62–3.44 | 0.00 | 3.65 1.47–5.83 0.91–6.39 | 0.00 | 31% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.44 1.03–3.85 0.64–4.24 | 4.00 | 3.86 2.31–5.42 1.88–5.85 | 3.00 | 6.30 3.33–9.27 2.51–10.09 | 7.00 | 22% 14% 64% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.