Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: B. Van Driessche
Goals
40%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.362.85safe0.53–2.450.50–2.221.03–4.67safer0.27–2.710.25–2.460.52–5.18actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
47%
14%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.574.308.86safe2.71–6.422.59–6.005.30–12.43safer2.21–6.922.12–6.474.33–13.39actual2.003.005.00
Total shots
59%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8512.2226.07safe10.15–17.558.85–15.6018.99–33.16safer9.12–18.587.91–16.5317.03–35.12actual11.0014.0025.00
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction9.068.9718.03safe6.54–11.576.67–11.2713.21–22.85safer5.68–12.445.87–12.0711.55–24.51actual7.008.0015.00
Blocked shots
50%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.083.557.62safe2.49–5.662.13–4.964.62–10.62safer1.96–6.191.64–5.453.60–11.64actual3.002.005.00
Corners
48%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction5.354.9910.34safe3.15–7.563.01–6.976.16–14.53safer2.55–8.152.47–7.505.03–15.66actual2.0011.0013.00
Possession %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction54.0546.14safe47.73–60.3639.82–52.46safer46.13–61.9638.22–54.06actual43.0057.00
Passes
72%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction444377821safe379–510312–441691–951safer361–527295–459656–986actual337424761
Pass accuracy %
56%
39%
homeawayprediction63.5861.81safe59.37–67.8057.30–66.32safer58.07–69.1055.97–67.65
Fouls
39%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5711.3321.90safe7.72–13.438.38–14.2716.10–27.70safer6.83–14.327.47–15.1914.30–29.51actual17.0018.0035.00
Offsides
22%
18%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.674.29safe0.41–2.831.50–3.831.92–6.66safer0.07–3.181.17–4.161.24–7.34actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.923.88safe0.90–3.020.80–3.041.71–6.06safer0.63–3.290.51–3.331.14–6.62actual4.003.007.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.060.13safe0.00–0.230.00–0.250.00–0.48safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
31%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.603.265.86safe1.19–4.021.70–4.812.89–8.83safer0.80–4.411.27–5.242.07–9.65actual2.001.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 0.53–2.45 0.27–2.71 | 1.00 | 1.36 0.50–2.22 0.25–2.46 | 1.00 | 2.85 1.03–4.67 0.52–5.18 | 2.00 | 40% 25% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.57 2.71–6.42 2.21–6.92 | 2.00 | 4.30 2.59–6.00 2.12–6.47 | 3.00 | 8.86 5.30–12.43 4.33–13.39 | 5.00 | 47% 14% 40% |
| Total shots | 13.85 10.15–17.55 9.12–18.58 | 11.00 | 12.22 8.85–15.60 7.91–16.53 | 14.00 | 26.07 18.99–33.16 17.03–35.12 | 25.00 | 59% 34% |
| Shots in box | 9.06 6.54–11.57 5.68–12.44 | 7.00 | 8.97 6.67–11.27 5.87–12.07 | 8.00 | 18.03 13.21–22.85 11.55–24.51 | 15.00 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 4.08 2.49–5.66 1.96–6.19 | 3.00 | 3.55 2.13–4.96 1.64–5.45 | 2.00 | 7.62 4.62–10.62 3.60–11.64 | 5.00 | 50% 14% 35% |
| Corners | 5.35 3.15–7.56 2.55–8.15 | 2.00 | 4.99 3.01–6.97 2.47–7.50 | 11.00 | 10.34 6.16–14.53 5.03–15.66 | 13.00 | 48% 39% |
| Possession % | 54.05 47.73–60.36 46.13–61.96 | 43.00 | 46.14 39.82–52.46 38.22–54.06 | 57.00 | — | — | 67% 29% |
| Passes | 444 379–510 361–527 | 337 | 377 312–441 295–459 | 424 | 821 691–951 656–986 | 761 | 72% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.58 59.37–67.80 58.07–69.10 | — | 61.81 57.30–66.32 55.97–67.65 | — | — | — | 56% 39% |
| Fouls | 10.57 7.72–13.43 6.83–14.32 | 17.00 | 11.33 8.38–14.27 7.47–15.19 | 18.00 | 21.90 16.10–27.70 14.30–29.51 | 35.00 | 39% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.41–2.83 0.07–3.18 | 0.00 | 2.67 1.50–3.83 1.17–4.16 | 2.00 | 4.29 1.92–6.66 1.24–7.34 | 2.00 | 22% 18% 60% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.90–3.02 0.63–3.29 | 4.00 | 1.92 0.80–3.04 0.51–3.33 | 3.00 | 3.88 1.71–6.06 1.14–6.62 | 7.00 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.00 | 0.06 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.60 1.19–4.02 0.80–4.41 | 2.00 | 3.26 1.70–4.81 1.27–5.24 | 1.00 | 5.86 2.89–8.83 2.07–9.65 | 3.00 | 31% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.