Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Y. Araki
Goals
54%
25%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.610.892.51safe0.65–2.570.03–1.750.68–4.33safer0.39–2.830.00–2.000.18–4.83actual5.000.005.00
Shots on target
79%
homeawaytotalprediction6.233.289.51safe4.37–8.081.57–4.985.94–13.07safer3.87–8.581.10–5.454.97–14.04actual12.004.0016.00
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction18.9610.4329.39safe15.26–22.667.06–13.8122.31–36.48safer14.23–23.706.12–14.7420.35–38.44actual28.0011.0039.00
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction12.436.6819.10safe9.91–14.944.38–8.9814.29–23.92safer9.05–15.813.58–9.7812.63–25.58actual26.005.0031.00
Blocked shots
66%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.612.947.55safe3.03–6.201.53–4.364.56–10.55safer2.49–6.731.04–4.843.54–11.57actual6.003.009.00
Corners
73%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction6.714.1710.89safe4.51–8.922.20–6.156.70–15.07safer3.91–9.511.66–6.695.57–16.20actual6.004.0010.00
Possession %
66%
29%
homeawayprediction53.6545.93safe47.33–59.9739.61–52.25safer45.74–61.5638.01–53.84actual59.0041.00
Passes
76%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction497413910safe432–563348–477780–1040safer414–580330–495745–1075actual5225071029
Pass accuracy %
75%
21%
homeawayprediction73.0467.07safe68.82–77.2562.56–71.57safer67.52–78.5661.23–72.90
Fouls
45%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8410.9321.78safe7.99–13.707.99–13.8815.97–27.58safer7.10–14.597.07–14.7914.17–29.38actual9.003.0012.00
Offsides
57%
21%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.183.21safe0.82–3.230.02–2.350.84–5.58safer0.47–3.580.00–2.680.16–6.26actual3.002.005.00
Yellow cards
37%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.933.75safe0.77–2.880.81–3.051.58–5.93safer0.49–3.150.52–3.341.01–6.49actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.070.13safe0.00–0.220.00–0.260.00–0.48safer0.00–0.370.00–0.400.00–0.77actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
17%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction2.193.986.17safe0.77–3.602.43–5.543.20–9.14safer0.39–3.992.00–5.972.38–9.96actual4.006.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 0.65–2.57 0.39–2.83 | 5.00 | 0.89 0.03–1.75 0.00–2.00 | 0.00 | 2.51 0.68–4.33 0.18–4.83 | 5.00 | 54% 25% 21% |
| Shots on target | 6.23 4.37–8.08 3.87–8.58 | 12.00 | 3.28 1.57–4.98 1.10–5.45 | 4.00 | 9.51 5.94–13.07 4.97–14.04 | 16.00 | 79% |
| Total shots | 18.96 15.26–22.66 14.23–23.70 | 28.00 | 10.43 7.06–13.81 6.12–14.74 | 11.00 | 29.39 22.31–36.48 20.35–38.44 | 39.00 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 12.43 9.91–14.94 9.05–15.81 | 26.00 | 6.68 4.38–8.98 3.58–9.78 | 5.00 | 19.10 14.29–23.92 12.63–25.58 | 31.00 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 4.61 3.03–6.20 2.49–6.73 | 6.00 | 2.94 1.53–4.36 1.04–4.84 | 3.00 | 7.55 4.56–10.55 3.54–11.57 | 9.00 | 66% 21% |
| Corners | 6.71 4.51–8.92 3.91–9.51 | 6.00 | 4.17 2.20–6.15 1.66–6.69 | 4.00 | 10.89 6.70–15.07 5.57–16.20 | 10.00 | 73% 18% |
| Possession % | 53.65 47.33–59.97 45.74–61.56 | 59.00 | 45.93 39.61–52.25 38.01–53.84 | 41.00 | — | — | 66% 29% |
| Passes | 497 432–563 414–580 | 522 | 413 348–477 330–495 | 507 | 910 780–1040 745–1075 | 1029 | 76% 23% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.04 68.82–77.25 67.52–78.56 | — | 67.07 62.56–71.57 61.23–72.90 | — | — | — | 75% 21% |
| Fouls | 10.84 7.99–13.70 7.10–14.59 | 9.00 | 10.93 7.99–13.88 7.07–14.79 | 3.00 | 21.78 15.97–27.58 14.17–29.38 | 12.00 | 45% 46% |
| Offsides | 2.03 0.82–3.23 0.47–3.58 | 3.00 | 1.18 0.02–2.35 0.00–2.68 | 2.00 | 3.21 0.84–5.58 0.16–6.26 | 5.00 | 57% 21% 22% |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 0.77–2.88 0.49–3.15 | 2.00 | 1.93 0.81–3.05 0.52–3.34 | 0.00 | 3.75 1.58–5.93 1.01–6.49 | 2.00 | 37% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.77 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.19 0.77–3.60 0.39–3.99 | 4.00 | 3.98 2.43–5.54 2.00–5.97 | 6.00 | 6.17 3.20–9.14 2.38–9.96 | 10.00 | 17% 70% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+