Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: N. Laforge
Goals
67%
17%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.481.113.59safe1.52–3.440.25–1.971.77–5.41safer1.26–3.700.00–2.221.26–5.92actual3.001.004.00
Shots on target
79%
homeawaytotalprediction6.583.5210.10safe4.73–8.441.81–5.226.54–13.66safer4.23–8.941.34–5.695.57–14.63actual9.005.0014.00
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction17.839.6127.45safe14.13–21.546.23–12.9920.36–34.53safer13.10–22.575.30–13.9218.40–36.49actual23.0017.0040.00
Shots in box
95%
homeawaytotalprediction13.916.3220.23safe11.39–16.424.02–8.6315.41–25.05safer10.52–17.293.23–9.4213.75–26.71actual21.0011.0032.00
Blocked shots
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction5.422.978.39safe3.83–7.001.56–4.395.39–11.39safer3.30–7.531.07–4.884.37–12.41actual7.004.0011.00
Corners
82%
homeawaytotalprediction7.193.6710.86safe4.99–9.401.69–5.646.67–15.04safer4.39–9.991.15–6.185.54–16.17actual9.004.0013.00
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction64.1035.31safe57.78–70.4228.99–41.63safer56.19–72.0227.40–43.23actual58.0042.00
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction600341941safe535–666276–405811–1071safer517–683259–423776–1106actual440341781
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction79.4367.01safe75.21–83.6462.50–71.51safer73.91–84.9461.17–72.84
Fouls
21%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction7.9110.9518.86safe5.05–10.778.01–13.9013.06–24.67safer4.17–11.657.09–14.8111.26–26.47actual6.0013.0019.00
Offsides
41%
24%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.483.08safe0.39–2.810.32–2.650.71–5.45safer0.04–3.150.00–2.980.03–6.13actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
28%
22%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.963.37safe0.35–2.460.84–3.081.19–5.54safer0.08–2.730.55–3.370.63–6.11actual4.003.007.00
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.020.070.10safe0.00–0.180.00–0.270.00–0.44safer0.00–0.330.00–0.410.00–0.74actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
20%
14%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction2.203.675.87safe0.79–3.622.11–5.222.90–8.84safer0.40–4.011.68–5.652.08–9.66actual4.006.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.48 1.52–3.44 1.26–3.70 | 3.00 | 1.11 0.25–1.97 0.00–2.22 | 1.00 | 3.59 1.77–5.41 1.26–5.92 | 4.00 | 67% 17% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.58 4.73–8.44 4.23–8.94 | 9.00 | 3.52 1.81–5.22 1.34–5.69 | 5.00 | 10.10 6.54–13.66 5.57–14.63 | 14.00 | 79% |
| Total shots | 17.83 14.13–21.54 13.10–22.57 | 23.00 | 9.61 6.23–12.99 5.30–13.92 | 17.00 | 27.45 20.36–34.53 18.40–36.49 | 40.00 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 13.91 11.39–16.42 10.52–17.29 | 21.00 | 6.32 4.02–8.63 3.23–9.42 | 11.00 | 20.23 15.41–25.05 13.75–26.71 | 32.00 | 95% |
| Blocked shots | 5.42 3.83–7.00 3.30–7.53 | 7.00 | 2.97 1.56–4.39 1.07–4.88 | 4.00 | 8.39 5.39–11.39 4.37–12.41 | 11.00 | 75% 15% |
| Corners | 7.19 4.99–9.40 4.39–9.99 | 9.00 | 3.67 1.69–5.64 1.15–6.18 | 4.00 | 10.86 6.67–15.04 5.54–16.17 | 13.00 | 82% |
| Possession % | 64.10 57.78–70.42 56.19–72.02 | 58.00 | 35.31 28.99–41.63 27.40–43.23 | 42.00 | — | — | 96% |
| Passes | 600 535–666 517–683 | 440 | 341 276–405 259–423 | 341 | 941 811–1071 776–1106 | 781 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.43 75.21–83.64 73.91–84.94 | — | 67.01 62.50–71.51 61.17–72.84 | — | — | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 7.91 5.05–10.77 4.17–11.65 | 6.00 | 10.95 8.01–13.90 7.09–14.81 | 13.00 | 18.86 13.06–24.67 11.26–26.47 | 19.00 | 21% 72% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.39–2.81 0.04–3.15 | 1.00 | 1.48 0.32–2.65 0.00–2.98 | 1.00 | 3.08 0.71–5.45 0.03–6.13 | 2.00 | 41% 24% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.40 0.35–2.46 0.08–2.73 | 4.00 | 1.96 0.84–3.08 0.55–3.37 | 3.00 | 3.37 1.19–5.54 0.63–6.11 | 7.00 | 28% 22% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.02 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.33 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.44 0.00–0.74 | 0.00 | 91% |
| GK saves | 2.20 0.79–3.62 0.40–4.01 | 4.00 | 3.67 2.11–5.22 1.68–5.65 | 6.00 | 5.87 2.90–8.84 2.08–9.66 | 10.00 | 20% 14% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.