Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: N. Verboomen
Goals
55%
24%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.720.982.70safe0.76–2.680.12–1.840.88–4.53safer0.50–2.950.00–2.090.38–5.03actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
68%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.173.308.48safe3.32–7.031.60–5.014.91–12.04safer2.82–7.531.13–5.483.95–13.01actual6.005.0011.00
Total shots
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1710.3324.50safe10.46–17.876.95–13.7117.42–31.58safer9.43–18.906.02–14.6415.46–33.54actual17.0016.0033.00
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction9.806.5016.30safe7.28–12.324.20–8.8011.49–21.12safer6.42–13.183.41–9.609.83–22.78actual10.0011.0021.00
Blocked shots
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction4.112.896.99safe2.52–5.691.47–4.303.99–9.99safer1.99–6.230.99–4.792.97–11.01actual5.005.0010.00
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.384.009.38safe3.18–7.592.02–5.985.20–13.57safer2.58–8.181.48–6.524.07–14.70actual4.009.0013.00
Possession %
84%
14%
homeawayprediction57.4541.02safe51.13–63.7734.70–47.34safer49.54–65.3633.10–48.93actual64.0036.00
Passes
90%
homeawaytotalprediction533381915safe468–599317–446785–1045safer450–616299–463750–1080actual616354970
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction76.7967.23safe72.57–81.0062.73–71.74safer71.27–82.3061.40–73.07
Fouls
37%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction9.7310.6820.41safe6.87–12.597.74–13.6314.61–26.22safer5.99–13.476.82–14.5412.81–28.02actual8.0010.0018.00
Offsides
49%
22%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.403.28safe0.67–3.090.23–2.560.90–5.65safer0.32–3.430.00–2.890.23–6.32actual0.004.004.00
Yellow cards
29%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.592.113.69safe0.53–2.640.99–3.231.52–5.87safer0.26–2.910.70–3.520.96–6.43actual2.005.007.00
Red cards
90%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.070.10safe0.00–0.190.00–0.260.00–0.45safer0.00–0.340.00–0.400.00–0.75actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
37%
18%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.482.735.21safe1.07–3.901.17–4.282.24–8.18safer0.68–4.280.74–4.711.42–9.00actual5.005.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.72 0.76–2.68 0.50–2.95 | 1.00 | 0.98 0.12–1.84 0.00–2.09 | 1.00 | 2.70 0.88–4.53 0.38–5.03 | 2.00 | 55% 24% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.17 3.32–7.03 2.82–7.53 | 6.00 | 3.30 1.60–5.01 1.13–5.48 | 5.00 | 8.48 4.91–12.04 3.95–13.01 | 11.00 | 68% 20% |
| Total shots | 14.17 10.46–17.87 9.43–18.90 | 17.00 | 10.33 6.95–13.71 6.02–14.64 | 16.00 | 24.50 17.42–31.58 15.46–33.54 | 33.00 | 75% 19% |
| Shots in box | 9.80 7.28–12.32 6.42–13.18 | 10.00 | 6.50 4.20–8.80 3.41–9.60 | 11.00 | 16.30 11.49–21.12 9.83–22.78 | 21.00 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.11 2.52–5.69 1.99–6.23 | 5.00 | 2.89 1.47–4.30 0.99–4.79 | 5.00 | 6.99 3.99–9.99 2.97–11.01 | 10.00 | 61% 14% 25% |
| Corners | 5.38 3.18–7.59 2.58–8.18 | 4.00 | 4.00 2.02–5.98 1.48–6.52 | 9.00 | 9.38 5.20–13.57 4.07–14.70 | 13.00 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 57.45 51.13–63.77 49.54–65.36 | 64.00 | 41.02 34.70–47.34 33.10–48.93 | 36.00 | — | — | 84% 14% |
| Passes | 533 468–599 450–616 | 616 | 381 317–446 299–463 | 354 | 915 785–1045 750–1080 | 970 | 90% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.79 72.57–81.00 71.27–82.30 | — | 67.23 62.73–71.74 61.40–73.07 | — | — | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 9.73 6.87–12.59 5.99–13.47 | 8.00 | 10.68 7.74–13.63 6.82–14.54 | 10.00 | 20.41 14.61–26.22 12.81–28.02 | 18.00 | 37% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.67–3.09 0.32–3.43 | 0.00 | 1.40 0.23–2.56 0.00–2.89 | 4.00 | 3.28 0.90–5.65 0.23–6.32 | 4.00 | 49% 22% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.53–2.64 0.26–2.91 | 2.00 | 2.11 0.99–3.23 0.70–3.52 | 5.00 | 3.69 1.52–5.87 0.96–6.43 | 7.00 | 29% 21% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.19 0.00–0.34 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.45 0.00–0.75 | 0.00 | 90% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.07–3.90 0.68–4.28 | 5.00 | 2.73 1.17–4.28 0.74–4.71 | 5.00 | 5.21 2.24–8.18 1.42–9.00 | 10.00 | 37% 18% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.