Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: B. Verbeke
Goals
36%
26%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.382.71safe0.37–2.290.52–2.240.89–4.53safer0.11–2.550.27–2.490.38–5.04actual0.001.001.00
Shots on target
43%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.524.559.07safe2.66–6.372.84–6.265.50–12.63safer2.16–6.872.37–6.734.53–13.60actual2.005.007.00
Total shots
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4412.4325.87safe9.74–17.149.05–15.8118.79–32.95safer8.71–18.178.12–16.7416.83–34.91actual15.0015.0030.00
Shots in box
36%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction8.018.9516.95safe5.49–10.526.64–11.2512.13–21.77safer4.62–11.395.85–12.0410.47–23.43actual7.0010.0017.00
Blocked shots
47%
15%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.643.356.98safe2.05–5.221.93–4.763.99–9.98safer1.52–5.761.45–5.252.97–11.00actual11.001.0012.00
Corners
44%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction5.325.2710.60safe3.12–7.533.29–7.256.41–14.78safer2.52–8.132.76–7.795.28–15.91actual9.003.0012.00
Possession %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction46.4454.39safe40.12–52.7548.08–60.71safer38.52–54.3546.48–62.31actual48.0052.00
Passes
22%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction373461833safe307–438396–525704–963safer290–456379–543668–999actual441485926
Pass accuracy %
18%
79%
homeawayprediction67.8274.77safe63.60–72.0370.27–79.28safer62.30–73.3368.93–80.61
Fouls
31%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4312.3522.78safe7.57–13.299.40–15.2916.97–28.58safer6.69–14.178.48–16.2115.17–30.38actual12.0015.0027.00
Offsides
21%
20%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.292.233.51safe0.08–2.501.06–3.391.14–5.89safer0.00–2.840.73–3.720.47–6.56actual2.001.003.00
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.243.99safe0.70–2.811.12–3.361.81–6.17safer0.43–3.080.83–3.651.25–6.73actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
89%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.070.11safe0.00–0.200.00–0.260.00–0.46safer0.00–0.350.00–0.400.00–0.76actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
37%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.662.915.57safe1.25–4.081.35–4.462.60–8.54safer0.86–4.470.92–4.891.78–9.36actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.37–2.29 0.11–2.55 | 0.00 | 1.38 0.52–2.24 0.27–2.49 | 1.00 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.38–5.04 | 1.00 | 36% 26% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.52 2.66–6.37 2.16–6.87 | 2.00 | 4.55 2.84–6.26 2.37–6.73 | 5.00 | 9.07 5.50–12.63 4.53–13.60 | 7.00 | 43% 13% 44% |
| Total shots | 13.44 9.74–17.14 8.71–18.17 | 15.00 | 12.43 9.05–15.81 8.12–16.74 | 15.00 | 25.87 18.79–32.95 16.83–34.91 | 30.00 | 54% 38% |
| Shots in box | 8.01 5.49–10.52 4.62–11.39 | 7.00 | 8.95 6.64–11.25 5.85–12.04 | 10.00 | 16.95 12.13–21.77 10.47–23.43 | 17.00 | 36% 54% |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 2.05–5.22 1.52–5.76 | 11.00 | 3.35 1.93–4.76 1.45–5.25 | 1.00 | 6.98 3.99–9.98 2.97–11.00 | 12.00 | 47% 15% 38% |
| Corners | 5.32 3.12–7.53 2.52–8.13 | 9.00 | 5.27 3.29–7.25 2.76–7.79 | 3.00 | 10.60 6.41–14.78 5.28–15.91 | 12.00 | 44% 43% |
| Possession % | 46.44 40.12–52.75 38.52–54.35 | 48.00 | 54.39 48.08–60.71 46.48–62.31 | 52.00 | — | — | 29% 67% |
| Passes | 373 307–438 290–456 | 441 | 461 396–525 379–543 | 485 | 833 704–963 668–999 | 926 | 22% 77% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.82 63.60–72.03 62.30–73.33 | — | 74.77 70.27–79.28 68.93–80.61 | — | — | — | 18% 79% |
| Fouls | 10.43 7.57–13.29 6.69–14.17 | 12.00 | 12.35 9.40–15.29 8.48–16.21 | 15.00 | 22.78 16.97–28.58 15.17–30.38 | 27.00 | 31% 62% |
| Offsides | 1.29 0.08–2.50 0.00–2.84 | 2.00 | 2.23 1.06–3.39 0.73–3.72 | 1.00 | 3.51 1.14–5.89 0.47–6.56 | 3.00 | 21% 20% 59% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.81 0.43–3.08 | 1.00 | 2.24 1.12–3.36 0.83–3.65 | 3.00 | 3.99 1.81–6.17 1.25–6.73 | 4.00 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.46 0.00–0.76 | 0.00 | 89% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.25–4.08 0.86–4.47 | 3.00 | 2.91 1.35–4.46 0.92–4.89 | 2.00 | 5.57 2.60–8.54 1.78–9.36 | 5.00 | 37% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.