Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 6·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: L. Visser
Goals
48%
27%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.440.982.42safe0.48–2.400.12–1.840.60–4.24safer0.22–2.660.00–2.080.09–4.75actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
54%
13%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.854.038.88safe2.99–6.702.33–5.745.32–12.44safer2.49–7.201.86–6.214.35–13.41actual6.002.008.00
Total shots
72%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1311.6826.80safe11.42–18.838.30–15.0519.72–33.89safer10.39–19.867.37–15.9817.76–35.85actual17.0010.0027.00
Shots in box
75%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction10.226.9817.19safe7.70–12.734.68–9.2812.38–22.01safer6.84–13.603.88–10.0810.72–23.67actual11.007.0018.00
Blocked shots
56%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.963.067.02safe2.38–5.551.64–4.474.02–10.02safer1.85–6.081.15–4.963.00–11.04actual3.002.005.00
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.654.6610.31safe3.45–7.862.68–6.636.12–14.49safer2.85–8.452.14–7.174.99–15.62actual0.004.004.00
Possession %
59%
37%
homeawayprediction52.0647.60safe45.74–58.3841.28–53.92safer44.15–59.9739.68–55.52actual38.0062.00
Passes
56%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction410393803safe345–475329–458673–933safer327–493311–475638–968actual321524845
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction67.1164.71safe62.89–71.3260.21–69.22safer61.59–72.6258.88–70.55
Fouls
52%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1910.4221.61safe8.33–14.047.47–13.3715.80–27.41safer7.44–14.936.56–14.2814.00–29.21actual9.0010.0019.00
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.923.88safe0.75–3.170.76–3.081.50–6.25safer0.40–3.510.42–3.410.83–6.92actual3.002.005.00
Yellow cards
36%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.873.59safe0.67–2.780.75–2.991.42–5.77safer0.40–3.050.46–3.280.85–6.33actual2.002.004.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.703.185.88safe1.29–4.121.62–4.732.91–8.85safer0.90–4.511.19–5.162.09–9.67actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.48–2.40 0.22–2.66 | 3.00 | 0.98 0.12–1.84 0.00–2.08 | 0.00 | 2.42 0.60–4.24 0.09–4.75 | 3.00 | 48% 27% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.85 2.99–6.70 2.49–7.20 | 6.00 | 4.03 2.33–5.74 1.86–6.21 | 2.00 | 8.88 5.32–12.44 4.35–13.41 | 8.00 | 54% 13% 33% |
| Total shots | 15.13 11.42–18.83 10.39–19.86 | 17.00 | 11.68 8.30–15.05 7.37–15.98 | 10.00 | 26.80 19.72–33.89 17.76–35.85 | 27.00 | 72% 22% |
| Shots in box | 10.22 7.70–12.73 6.84–13.60 | 11.00 | 6.98 4.68–9.28 3.88–10.08 | 7.00 | 17.19 12.38–22.01 10.72–23.67 | 18.00 | 75% 18% |
| Blocked shots | 3.96 2.38–5.55 1.85–6.08 | 3.00 | 3.06 1.64–4.47 1.15–4.96 | 2.00 | 7.02 4.02–10.02 3.00–11.04 | 5.00 | 56% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.65 3.45–7.86 2.85–8.45 | 0.00 | 4.66 2.68–6.63 2.14–7.17 | 4.00 | 10.31 6.12–14.49 4.99–15.62 | 4.00 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 52.06 45.74–58.38 44.15–59.97 | 38.00 | 47.60 41.28–53.92 39.68–55.52 | 62.00 | — | — | 59% 37% |
| Passes | 410 345–475 327–493 | 321 | 393 329–458 311–475 | 524 | 803 673–933 638–968 | 845 | 56% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.11 62.89–71.32 61.59–72.62 | — | 64.71 60.21–69.22 58.88–70.55 | — | — | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 11.19 8.33–14.04 7.44–14.93 | 9.00 | 10.42 7.47–13.37 6.56–14.28 | 10.00 | 21.61 15.80–27.41 14.00–29.21 | 19.00 | 52% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.75–3.17 0.40–3.51 | 3.00 | 1.92 0.76–3.08 0.42–3.41 | 2.00 | 3.88 1.50–6.25 0.83–6.92 | 5.00 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 0.67–2.78 0.40–3.05 | 2.00 | 1.87 0.75–2.99 0.46–3.28 | 2.00 | 3.59 1.42–5.77 0.85–6.33 | 4.00 | 36% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.70 1.29–4.12 0.90–4.51 | 2.00 | 3.18 1.62–4.73 1.19–5.16 | 3.00 | 5.88 2.91–8.85 2.09–9.67 | 5.00 | 34% 17% 49% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+