Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Lothar D'hondt · Belgium
Goals
59%
22%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.900.972.87safe0.94–2.860.11–1.831.05–4.69safer0.68–3.120.00–2.080.54–5.20actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.563.308.86safe3.70–7.421.59–5.005.29–12.42safer3.21–7.921.12–5.474.33–13.39actual6.004.0010.00
Total shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction15.799.4725.26safe12.09–19.496.09–12.8518.18–32.35safer11.06–20.535.16–13.7816.22–34.31actual11.0014.0025.00
Shots in box
87%
homeawaytotalprediction11.666.3918.06safe9.15–14.184.09–8.7013.24–22.88safer8.28–15.053.30–9.4911.58–24.54actual10.0010.0020.00
Blocked shots
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.602.687.28safe3.01–6.181.26–4.094.28–10.27safer2.48–6.720.78–4.583.26–11.30actual1.006.007.00
Corners
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.513.9210.43safe4.30–8.711.95–5.906.25–14.61safer3.71–9.311.41–6.445.11–15.75actual5.006.0011.00
Possession %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction53.6646.88safe47.34–59.9740.56–53.20safer45.74–61.5738.97–54.80actual45.0055.00
Passes
66%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction492444936safe426–557380–509806–1066safer409–575362–526771–1101actual426538964
Pass accuracy %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction70.3367.06safe66.11–74.5462.55–71.57safer64.81–75.8461.22–72.90
Fouls
38%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction9.4310.2419.67safe6.57–12.287.30–13.1913.87–25.47safer5.68–13.176.38–14.1112.06–27.28actual11.005.0016.00
Offsides
47%
20%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.261.884.14safe1.05–3.470.72–3.041.76–6.51safer0.70–3.810.38–3.371.09–7.18actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
27%
21%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.512.133.64safe0.45–2.571.01–3.251.46–5.81safer0.18–2.840.72–3.540.90–6.37actual1.000.001.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.040.100.14safe0.00–0.200.00–0.290.00–0.49safer0.00–0.350.00–0.440.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
20%
15%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction1.923.345.26safe0.51–3.341.79–4.902.30–8.23safer0.12–3.721.36–5.331.48–9.05actual3.004.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.90 0.94–2.86 0.68–3.12 | 2.00 | 0.97 0.11–1.83 0.00–2.08 | 1.00 | 2.87 1.05–4.69 0.54–5.20 | 3.00 | 59% 22% 19% |
| Shots on target | 5.56 3.70–7.42 3.21–7.92 | 6.00 | 3.30 1.59–5.00 1.12–5.47 | 4.00 | 8.86 5.29–12.42 4.33–13.39 | 10.00 | 72% 17% |
| Total shots | 15.79 12.09–19.49 11.06–20.53 | 11.00 | 9.47 6.09–12.85 5.16–13.78 | 14.00 | 25.26 18.18–32.35 16.22–34.31 | 25.00 | 88% |
| Shots in box | 11.66 9.15–14.18 8.28–15.05 | 10.00 | 6.39 4.09–8.70 3.30–9.49 | 10.00 | 18.06 13.24–22.88 11.58–24.54 | 20.00 | 87% |
| Blocked shots | 4.60 3.01–6.18 2.48–6.72 | 1.00 | 2.68 1.26–4.09 0.78–4.58 | 6.00 | 7.28 4.28–10.27 3.26–11.30 | 7.00 | 70% 18% |
| Corners | 6.51 4.30–8.71 3.71–9.31 | 5.00 | 3.92 1.95–5.90 1.41–6.44 | 6.00 | 10.43 6.25–14.61 5.11–15.75 | 11.00 | 74% 17% |
| Possession % | 53.66 47.34–59.97 45.74–61.57 | 45.00 | 46.88 40.56–53.20 38.97–54.80 | 55.00 | — | — | 64% 31% |
| Passes | 492 426–557 409–575 | 426 | 444 380–509 362–526 | 538 | 936 806–1066 771–1101 | 964 | 66% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.33 66.11–74.54 64.81–75.84 | — | 67.06 62.55–71.57 61.22–72.90 | — | — | — | 63% 32% |
| Fouls | 9.43 6.57–12.28 5.68–13.17 | 11.00 | 10.24 7.30–13.19 6.38–14.11 | 5.00 | 19.67 13.87–25.47 12.06–27.28 | 16.00 | 38% 53% |
| Offsides | 2.26 1.05–3.47 0.70–3.81 | 0.00 | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.38–3.37 | 1.00 | 4.14 1.76–6.51 1.09–7.18 | 1.00 | 47% 20% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.45–2.57 0.18–2.84 | 1.00 | 2.13 1.01–3.25 0.72–3.54 | 0.00 | 3.64 1.46–5.81 0.90–6.37 | 1.00 | 27% 21% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.04 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.35 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 1.92 0.51–3.34 0.12–3.72 | 3.00 | 3.34 1.79–4.90 1.36–5.33 | 4.00 | 5.26 2.30–8.23 1.48–9.05 | 7.00 | 20% 15% 65% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.