Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: J. Vergoote
Goals
55%
24%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.680.942.62safe0.72–2.650.08–1.800.80–4.44safer0.46–2.910.00–2.040.29–4.95actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.563.818.37safe2.70–6.422.10–5.514.80–11.93safer2.20–6.911.63–5.983.84–12.90actual4.002.006.00
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3110.6223.93safe9.61–17.017.25–14.0016.85–31.02safer8.58–18.046.31–14.9314.89–32.98actual10.007.0017.00
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.026.6816.70safe7.50–12.534.38–8.9811.88–21.51safer6.64–13.403.58–9.7810.22–23.17actual9.004.0013.00
Blocked shots
54%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.662.896.55safe2.08–5.251.47–4.303.55–9.55safer1.54–5.780.98–4.792.53–10.57actual3.004.007.00
Corners
62%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.644.219.84safe3.43–7.842.23–6.185.66–14.03safer2.84–8.441.69–6.724.53–15.16actual3.005.008.00
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction57.9340.69safe51.61–64.2434.37–47.01safer50.01–65.8432.77–48.61actual47.0053.00
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction491344835safe426–556280–409705–965safer408–574262–427670–1000actual435488923
Pass accuracy %
63%
32%
homeawayprediction63.2060.01safe58.99–67.4255.51–64.52safer57.69–68.7254.18–65.85
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4910.4021.90safe8.63–14.357.46–13.3516.09–27.70safer7.75–15.236.54–14.2714.29–29.50actual12.0017.0029.00
Offsides
29%
18%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.052.774.82safe0.84–3.261.61–3.932.45–7.19safer0.50–3.611.28–4.271.77–7.87actual0.002.002.00
Yellow cards
31%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.183.93safe0.69–2.811.06–3.301.75–6.10safer0.42–3.080.77–3.591.19–6.67actual3.002.005.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.090.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.84actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
28%
17%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.303.115.41safe0.89–3.721.56–4.662.45–8.38safer0.50–4.111.12–5.101.62–9.20actual2.002.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.68 0.72–2.65 0.46–2.91 | 2.00 | 0.94 0.08–1.80 0.00–2.04 | 0.00 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.29–4.95 | 2.00 | 55% 24% 21% |
| Shots on target | 4.56 2.70–6.42 2.20–6.91 | 4.00 | 3.81 2.10–5.51 1.63–5.98 | 2.00 | 8.37 4.80–11.93 3.84–12.90 | 6.00 | 53% 14% 33% |
| Total shots | 13.31 9.61–17.01 8.58–18.04 | 10.00 | 10.62 7.25–14.00 6.31–14.93 | 7.00 | 23.93 16.85–31.02 14.89–32.98 | 17.00 | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 10.02 7.50–12.53 6.64–13.40 | 9.00 | 6.68 4.38–8.98 3.58–9.78 | 4.00 | 16.70 11.88–21.51 10.22–23.17 | 13.00 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 3.66 2.08–5.25 1.54–5.78 | 3.00 | 2.89 1.47–4.30 0.98–4.79 | 4.00 | 6.55 3.55–9.55 2.53–10.57 | 7.00 | 54% 15% 31% |
| Corners | 5.64 3.43–7.84 2.84–8.44 | 3.00 | 4.21 2.23–6.18 1.69–6.72 | 5.00 | 9.84 5.66–14.03 4.53–15.16 | 8.00 | 62% 27% |
| Possession % | 57.93 51.61–64.24 50.01–65.84 | 47.00 | 40.69 34.37–47.01 32.77–48.61 | 53.00 | — | — | 85% |
| Passes | 491 426–556 408–574 | 435 | 344 280–409 262–427 | 488 | 835 705–965 670–1000 | 923 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.20 58.99–67.42 57.69–68.72 | — | 60.01 55.51–64.52 54.18–65.85 | — | — | — | 63% 32% |
| Fouls | 11.49 8.63–14.35 7.75–15.23 | 12.00 | 10.40 7.46–13.35 6.54–14.27 | 17.00 | 21.90 16.09–27.70 14.29–29.50 | 29.00 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 2.05 0.84–3.26 0.50–3.61 | 0.00 | 2.77 1.61–3.93 1.28–4.27 | 2.00 | 4.82 2.45–7.19 1.77–7.87 | 2.00 | 29% 18% 54% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.69–2.81 0.42–3.08 | 3.00 | 2.18 1.06–3.30 0.77–3.59 | 2.00 | 3.93 1.75–6.10 1.19–6.67 | 5.00 | 31% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 1.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | 1.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.30 0.89–3.72 0.50–4.11 | 2.00 | 3.11 1.56–4.66 1.12–5.10 | 2.00 | 5.41 2.45–8.38 1.62–9.20 | 4.00 | 28% 17% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+