Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: A. Letellier
Goals
58%
23%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.840.982.82safe0.88–2.810.12–1.841.00–4.65safer0.62–3.070.00–2.090.49–5.15actual3.002.005.00
Shots on target
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.423.548.97safe3.57–7.281.84–5.255.40–12.53safer3.07–7.781.37–5.724.44–13.50actual7.006.0013.00
Total shots
77%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction15.9211.5627.48safe12.22–19.638.18–14.9320.40–34.56safer11.19–20.667.25–15.8618.44–36.52actual14.007.0021.00
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction11.136.6017.73safe8.61–13.644.30–8.9012.91–22.55safer7.75–14.513.50–9.7011.25–24.21actual9.007.0016.00
Blocked shots
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.863.097.95safe3.28–6.451.67–4.504.95–10.95safer2.74–6.981.19–4.993.93–11.97actual3.000.003.00
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.714.4010.10safe3.50–7.912.42–6.375.92–14.28safer2.91–8.511.88–6.914.79–15.42actual3.002.005.00
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction59.6040.51safe53.28–65.9234.19–46.83safer51.69–67.5132.59–48.43actual64.0036.00
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction549357907safe484–615293–422777–1037safer466–632275–440742–1072actual572322894
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction74.1463.50safe69.92–78.3559.00–68.01safer68.62–79.6557.67–69.34
Fouls
15%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction8.8013.0721.87safe5.94–11.6610.12–16.0216.07–27.67safer5.06–12.549.21–16.9314.27–29.48actual15.0014.0029.00
Offsides
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.621.753.37safe0.41–2.830.58–2.911.00–5.74safer0.07–3.170.25–3.240.32–6.42actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
26%
20%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.502.233.73safe0.45–2.561.11–3.351.56–5.91safer0.18–2.830.82–3.641.00–6.47actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
91%
homeawaytotalprediction0.020.070.09safe0.00–0.180.00–0.260.00–0.44safer0.00–0.330.00–0.410.00–0.74actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
27%
16%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.323.225.54safe0.91–3.731.67–4.782.57–8.51safer0.52–4.121.24–5.211.75–9.33actual4.004.008.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 0.88–2.81 0.62–3.07 | 3.00 | 0.98 0.12–1.84 0.00–2.09 | 2.00 | 2.82 1.00–4.65 0.49–5.15 | 5.00 | 58% 23% 20% |
| Shots on target | 5.42 3.57–7.28 3.07–7.78 | 7.00 | 3.54 1.84–5.25 1.37–5.72 | 6.00 | 8.97 5.40–12.53 4.44–13.50 | 13.00 | 68% 21% |
| Total shots | 15.92 12.22–19.63 11.19–20.66 | 14.00 | 11.56 8.18–14.93 7.25–15.86 | 7.00 | 27.48 20.40–34.56 18.44–36.52 | 21.00 | 77% 18% |
| Shots in box | 11.13 8.61–13.64 7.75–14.51 | 9.00 | 6.60 4.30–8.90 3.50–9.70 | 7.00 | 17.73 12.91–22.55 11.25–24.21 | 16.00 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 4.86 3.28–6.45 2.74–6.98 | 3.00 | 3.09 1.67–4.50 1.19–4.99 | 0.00 | 7.95 4.95–10.95 3.93–11.97 | 3.00 | 67% 21% |
| Corners | 5.71 3.50–7.91 2.91–8.51 | 3.00 | 4.40 2.42–6.37 1.88–6.91 | 2.00 | 10.10 5.92–14.28 4.79–15.42 | 5.00 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 59.60 53.28–65.92 51.69–67.51 | 64.00 | 40.51 34.19–46.83 32.59–48.43 | 36.00 | — | — | 87% |
| Passes | 549 484–615 466–632 | 572 | 357 293–422 275–440 | 322 | 907 777–1037 742–1072 | 894 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.14 69.92–78.35 68.62–79.65 | — | 63.50 59.00–68.01 57.67–69.34 | — | — | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 8.80 5.94–11.66 5.06–12.54 | 15.00 | 13.07 10.12–16.02 9.21–16.93 | 14.00 | 21.87 16.07–27.67 14.27–29.48 | 29.00 | 15% 79% |
| Offsides | 1.62 0.41–2.83 0.07–3.17 | 1.00 | 1.75 0.58–2.91 0.25–3.24 | 1.00 | 3.37 1.00–5.74 0.32–6.42 | 2.00 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.56 0.18–2.83 | 2.00 | 2.23 1.11–3.35 0.82–3.64 | 1.00 | 3.73 1.56–5.91 1.00–6.47 | 3.00 | 26% 20% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.02 0.00–0.18 0.00–0.33 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.44 0.00–0.74 | 0.00 | 91% |
| GK saves | 2.32 0.91–3.73 0.52–4.12 | 4.00 | 3.22 1.67–4.78 1.24–5.21 | 4.00 | 5.54 2.57–8.51 1.75–9.33 | 8.00 | 27% 16% 57% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.