Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Simon Bourdeaud'hui · Belgium
Goals
50%
23%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.212.97safe0.80–2.720.35–2.071.15–4.79safer0.54–2.980.11–2.320.64–5.30actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
56%
13%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.853.938.78safe3.00–6.712.22–5.645.22–12.35safer2.50–7.211.76–6.114.25–13.31actual8.004.0012.00
Total shots
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3410.0023.34safe9.64–17.046.63–13.3816.26–30.42safer8.60–18.075.69–14.3114.30–32.39actual16.0010.0026.00
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction10.336.9417.27safe7.81–12.844.64–9.2412.45–22.09safer6.95–13.713.84–10.0410.79–23.75actual11.008.0019.00
Blocked shots
61%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.762.546.30safe2.18–5.351.12–3.953.30–9.30safer1.65–5.880.64–4.442.28–10.32actual4.001.005.00
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.844.2810.12safe3.64–8.052.30–6.265.94–14.31safer3.04–8.641.76–6.804.81–15.44actual8.001.009.00
Possession %
74%
23%
homeawayprediction55.6744.71safe49.35–61.9938.40–51.03safer47.75–63.5836.80–52.63actual61.0039.00
Passes
85%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction498376874safe433–564311–440744–1004safer415–581293–458709–1039actual556359915
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction74.3265.65safe70.10–78.5361.14–70.16safer68.80–79.8459.81–71.49
Fouls
59%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1711.5624.74safe10.32–16.038.62–14.5118.93–30.54safer9.43–16.927.70–15.4317.13–32.34actual7.0011.0018.00
Offsides
19%
13%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction2.203.866.06safe0.99–3.412.69–5.023.68–8.43safer0.64–3.752.36–5.353.01–9.10actual3.007.0010.00
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.242.064.30safe1.18–3.300.94–3.182.12–6.47safer0.91–3.570.65–3.471.56–7.03actual2.001.003.00
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.182.935.11safe0.76–3.591.38–4.482.14–8.08safer0.37–3.980.94–4.921.32–8.90actual4.005.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.80–2.72 0.54–2.98 | 3.00 | 1.21 0.35–2.07 0.11–2.32 | 0.00 | 2.97 1.15–4.79 0.64–5.30 | 3.00 | 50% 23% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.85 3.00–6.71 2.50–7.21 | 8.00 | 3.93 2.22–5.64 1.76–6.11 | 4.00 | 8.78 5.22–12.35 4.25–13.31 | 12.00 | 56% 13% 31% |
| Total shots | 13.34 9.64–17.04 8.60–18.07 | 16.00 | 10.00 6.63–13.38 5.69–14.31 | 10.00 | 23.34 16.26–30.42 14.30–32.39 | 26.00 | 72% 21% |
| Shots in box | 10.33 7.81–12.84 6.95–13.71 | 11.00 | 6.94 4.64–9.24 3.84–10.04 | 8.00 | 17.27 12.45–22.09 10.79–23.75 | 19.00 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 3.76 2.18–5.35 1.65–5.88 | 4.00 | 2.54 1.12–3.95 0.64–4.44 | 1.00 | 6.30 3.30–9.30 2.28–10.32 | 5.00 | 61% 15% 24% |
| Corners | 5.84 3.64–8.05 3.04–8.64 | 8.00 | 4.28 2.30–6.26 1.76–6.80 | 1.00 | 10.12 5.94–14.31 4.81–15.44 | 9.00 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 55.67 49.35–61.99 47.75–63.58 | 61.00 | 44.71 38.40–51.03 36.80–52.63 | 39.00 | — | — | 74% 23% |
| Passes | 498 433–564 415–581 | 556 | 376 311–440 293–458 | 359 | 874 744–1004 709–1039 | 915 | 85% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.32 70.10–78.53 68.80–79.84 | — | 65.65 61.14–70.16 59.81–71.49 | — | — | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 13.17 10.32–16.03 9.43–16.92 | 7.00 | 11.56 8.62–14.51 7.70–15.43 | 11.00 | 24.74 18.93–30.54 17.13–32.34 | 18.00 | 59% 34% |
| Offsides | 2.20 0.99–3.41 0.64–3.75 | 3.00 | 3.86 2.69–5.02 2.36–5.35 | 7.00 | 6.06 3.68–8.43 3.01–9.10 | 10.00 | 19% 13% 68% |
| Yellow cards | 2.24 1.18–3.30 0.91–3.57 | 2.00 | 2.06 0.94–3.18 0.65–3.47 | 1.00 | 4.30 2.12–6.47 1.56–7.03 | 3.00 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 0.00 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.18 0.76–3.59 0.37–3.98 | 4.00 | 2.93 1.38–4.48 0.94–4.92 | 5.00 | 5.11 2.14–8.08 1.32–8.90 | 9.00 | 29% 17% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+