Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: W. De Cremer
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.162.61safe0.49–2.420.30–2.020.79–4.44safer0.23–2.680.05–2.270.29–4.94actual0.000.000.00
Shots on target
55%
13%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.894.028.91safe3.03–6.752.31–5.735.35–12.47safer2.54–7.251.85–6.204.38–13.44actual0.004.004.00
Total shots
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2611.9725.23safe9.55–16.968.60–15.3518.15–32.31safer8.52–17.997.67–16.2816.19–34.28actual8.0015.0023.00
Shots in box
44%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction8.678.7517.42safe6.15–11.196.45–11.0512.60–22.24safer5.29–12.055.65–11.8510.94–23.90actual7.0011.0018.00
Blocked shots
54%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.043.267.31safe2.46–5.631.85–4.684.31–10.30safer1.93–6.161.36–5.163.29–11.33actual2.004.006.00
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.084.819.88safe2.87–7.282.83–6.785.70–14.07safer2.28–7.882.29–7.324.57–15.20actual5.006.0011.00
Possession %
51%
44%
homeawayprediction50.9749.68safe44.65–57.2943.36–56.00safer43.06–58.8941.77–57.60actual53.0047.00
Passes
61%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction444411855safe379–510346–475725–985safer362–527329–493690–1020actual448375823
Pass accuracy %
30%
66%
homeawayprediction66.6070.39safe62.38–70.8165.89–74.90safer61.08–72.1164.56–76.23
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9311.6822.61safe8.07–13.798.74–14.6316.81–28.42safer7.19–14.677.82–15.5515.01–30.22actual12.0016.0028.00
Offsides
26%
20%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.502.223.72safe0.29–2.701.06–3.381.34–6.09safer0.00–3.050.72–3.720.67–6.76actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
31%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.632.023.65safe0.57–2.690.90–3.141.47–5.83safer0.30–2.960.61–3.430.91–6.39actual2.004.006.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.080.14safe0.00–0.210.00–0.280.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
43%
17%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.972.885.86safe1.56–4.391.33–4.442.89–8.82safer1.17–4.770.90–4.872.07–9.64actual4.000.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.49–2.42 0.23–2.68 | 0.00 | 1.16 0.30–2.02 0.05–2.27 | 0.00 | 2.61 0.79–4.44 0.29–4.94 | 0.00 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.89 3.03–6.75 2.54–7.25 | 0.00 | 4.02 2.31–5.73 1.85–6.20 | 4.00 | 8.91 5.35–12.47 4.38–13.44 | 4.00 | 55% 13% 32% |
| Total shots | 13.26 9.55–16.96 8.52–17.99 | 8.00 | 11.97 8.60–15.35 7.67–16.28 | 15.00 | 25.23 18.15–32.31 16.19–34.28 | 23.00 | 56% 36% |
| Shots in box | 8.67 6.15–11.19 5.29–12.05 | 7.00 | 8.75 6.45–11.05 5.65–11.85 | 11.00 | 17.42 12.60–22.24 10.94–23.90 | 18.00 | 44% 46% |
| Blocked shots | 4.04 2.46–5.63 1.93–6.16 | 2.00 | 3.26 1.85–4.68 1.36–5.16 | 4.00 | 7.31 4.31–10.30 3.29–11.33 | 6.00 | 54% 14% 32% |
| Corners | 5.08 2.87–7.28 2.28–7.88 | 5.00 | 4.81 2.83–6.78 2.29–7.32 | 6.00 | 9.88 5.70–14.07 4.57–15.20 | 11.00 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 50.97 44.65–57.29 43.06–58.89 | 53.00 | 49.68 43.36–56.00 41.77–57.60 | 47.00 | — | — | 51% 44% |
| Passes | 444 379–510 362–527 | 448 | 411 346–475 329–493 | 375 | 855 725–985 690–1020 | 823 | 61% 38% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.60 62.38–70.81 61.08–72.11 | — | 70.39 65.89–74.90 64.56–76.23 | — | — | — | 30% 66% |
| Fouls | 10.93 8.07–13.79 7.19–14.67 | 12.00 | 11.68 8.74–14.63 7.82–15.55 | 16.00 | 22.61 16.81–28.42 15.01–30.22 | 28.00 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.50 0.29–2.70 0.00–3.05 | 1.00 | 2.22 1.06–3.38 0.72–3.72 | 2.00 | 3.72 1.34–6.09 0.67–6.76 | 3.00 | 26% 20% 54% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.57–2.69 0.30–2.96 | 2.00 | 2.02 0.90–3.14 0.61–3.43 | 4.00 | 3.65 1.47–5.83 0.91–6.39 | 6.00 | 31% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.97 1.56–4.39 1.17–4.77 | 4.00 | 2.88 1.33–4.44 0.90–4.87 | 0.00 | 5.86 2.89–8.82 2.07–9.64 | 4.00 | 43% 17% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+