Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: J. Boterberg
Goals
20%
21%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.152.103.25safe0.19–2.111.24–2.961.42–5.07safer0.00–2.370.99–3.200.92–5.58actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
21%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction3.966.039.99safe2.11–5.824.32–7.746.43–13.55safer1.61–6.323.85–8.205.46–14.52actual1.0011.0012.00
Total shots
19%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2216.4428.66safe8.52–15.9313.06–19.8221.58–35.74safer7.49–16.9612.13–20.7519.62–37.70actual7.0021.0028.00
Shots in box
16%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction7.8611.7119.57safe5.35–10.389.41–14.0114.76–24.39safer4.48–11.248.61–14.8113.10–26.05actual3.0018.0021.00
Blocked shots
46%
15%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.833.597.42safe2.25–5.412.17–5.004.42–10.42safer1.71–5.951.69–5.493.40–11.44actual2.006.008.00
Corners
32%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction4.955.9910.94safe2.74–7.154.02–7.976.76–15.12safer2.15–7.753.48–8.515.62–16.26actual1.007.008.00
Possession %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction44.5055.82safe38.18–50.8249.50–62.14safer36.58–52.4147.91–63.74actual49.0051.00
Passes
18%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction384490874safe318–449425–554744–1004safer301–467408–572709–1039actual428433861
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction62.1470.88safe57.92–66.3566.37–75.38safer56.62–67.6565.04–76.71
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0010.3121.31safe8.14–13.867.36–13.2515.51–27.11safer7.26–14.746.45–14.1713.70–28.91actual16.0013.0029.00
Offsides
29%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.672.213.88safe0.46–2.881.04–3.371.50–6.25safer0.11–3.220.71–3.700.83–6.92actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.943.89safe0.90–3.010.82–3.061.72–6.07safer0.62–3.280.53–3.351.15–6.63actual3.002.005.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
62%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.792.546.33safe2.38–5.210.99–4.093.36–9.30safer1.99–5.600.55–4.522.54–10.12actual8.001.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 0.19–2.11 0.00–2.37 | 0.00 | 2.10 1.24–2.96 0.99–3.20 | 2.00 | 3.25 1.42–5.07 0.92–5.58 | 2.00 | 20% 21% 59% |
| Shots on target | 3.96 2.11–5.82 1.61–6.32 | 1.00 | 6.03 4.32–7.74 3.85–8.20 | 11.00 | 9.99 6.43–13.55 5.46–14.52 | 12.00 | 21% 69% |
| Total shots | 12.22 8.52–15.93 7.49–16.96 | 7.00 | 16.44 13.06–19.82 12.13–20.75 | 21.00 | 28.66 21.58–35.74 19.62–37.70 | 28.00 | 19% 76% |
| Shots in box | 7.86 5.35–10.38 4.48–11.24 | 3.00 | 11.71 9.41–14.01 8.61–14.81 | 18.00 | 19.57 14.76–24.39 13.10–26.05 | 21.00 | 16% 78% |
| Blocked shots | 3.83 2.25–5.41 1.71–5.95 | 2.00 | 3.59 2.17–5.00 1.69–5.49 | 6.00 | 7.42 4.42–10.42 3.40–11.44 | 8.00 | 46% 15% 39% |
| Corners | 4.95 2.74–7.15 2.15–7.75 | 1.00 | 5.99 4.02–7.97 3.48–8.51 | 7.00 | 10.94 6.76–15.12 5.62–16.26 | 8.00 | 32% 56% |
| Possession % | 44.50 38.18–50.82 36.58–52.41 | 49.00 | 55.82 49.50–62.14 47.91–63.74 | 51.00 | — | — | 22% 74% |
| Passes | 384 318–449 301–467 | 428 | 490 425–554 408–572 | 433 | 874 744–1004 709–1039 | 861 | 18% 82% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.14 57.92–66.35 56.62–67.65 | — | 70.88 66.37–75.38 65.04–76.71 | — | — | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 11.00 8.14–13.86 7.26–14.74 | 16.00 | 10.31 7.36–13.25 6.45–14.17 | 13.00 | 21.31 15.51–27.11 13.70–28.91 | 29.00 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.67 0.46–2.88 0.11–3.22 | 1.00 | 2.21 1.04–3.37 0.71–3.70 | 1.00 | 3.88 1.50–6.25 0.83–6.92 | 2.00 | 29% 20% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.90–3.01 0.62–3.28 | 3.00 | 1.94 0.82–3.06 0.53–3.35 | 2.00 | 3.89 1.72–6.07 1.15–6.63 | 5.00 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 1.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 1.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 3.79 2.38–5.21 1.99–5.60 | 8.00 | 2.54 0.99–4.09 0.55–4.52 | 1.00 | 6.33 3.36–9.30 2.54–10.12 | 9.00 | 62% 14% 24% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+