Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: M. Ledda
Goals
58%
21%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction2.021.153.17safe1.06–2.980.29–2.011.34–4.99safer0.80–3.240.04–2.250.84–5.49actual0.002.002.00
Shots on target
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.513.989.49safe3.66–7.372.27–5.685.93–13.05safer3.16–7.871.80–6.154.96–14.02actual3.008.0011.00
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7910.7725.56safe11.09–18.497.39–14.1518.48–32.64safer10.06–19.536.46–15.0816.52–34.60actual17.0018.0035.00
Shots in box
79%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction10.716.7917.49safe8.19–13.224.48–9.0912.67–22.31safer7.33–14.093.69–9.8811.01–23.97actual14.0012.0026.00
Blocked shots
53%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.053.347.39safe2.46–5.631.93–4.764.39–10.39safer1.93–6.171.44–5.243.37–11.41actual3.005.008.00
Corners
63%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.724.149.85safe3.51–7.922.16–6.115.67–14.04safer2.92–8.521.62–6.654.54–15.17actual6.003.009.00
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction55.3043.88safe48.98–61.6237.56–50.20safer47.39–63.2235.96–51.80actual52.0048.00
Passes
72%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction472405877safe407–538340–469747–1007safer389–555322–487712–1042actual465454919
Pass accuracy %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction77.9271.77safe73.70–82.1467.26–76.28safer72.40–83.4465.93–77.61
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0010.8721.87safe8.14–13.867.92–13.8116.06–27.67safer7.26–14.747.00–14.7314.26–29.47actual11.0010.0021.00
Offsides
44%
23%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.533.31safe0.57–2.990.37–2.690.94–5.68safer0.23–3.340.04–3.030.26–6.36actual1.000.001.00
Yellow cards
35%
22%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.873.56safe0.64–2.750.75–2.991.38–5.73safer0.36–3.020.46–3.280.82–6.29actual1.001.002.00
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.81actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.572.915.48safe1.16–3.981.35–4.462.51–8.44safer0.77–4.370.92–4.891.69–9.27actual6.003.009.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.02 1.06–2.98 0.80–3.24 | 0.00 | 1.15 0.29–2.01 0.04–2.25 | 2.00 | 3.17 1.34–4.99 0.84–5.49 | 2.00 | 58% 21% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.51 3.66–7.37 3.16–7.87 | 3.00 | 3.98 2.27–5.68 1.80–6.15 | 8.00 | 9.49 5.93–13.05 4.96–14.02 | 11.00 | 63% 25% |
| Total shots | 14.79 11.09–18.49 10.06–19.53 | 17.00 | 10.77 7.39–14.15 6.46–15.08 | 18.00 | 25.56 18.48–32.64 16.52–34.60 | 35.00 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 10.71 8.19–13.22 7.33–14.09 | 14.00 | 6.79 4.48–9.09 3.69–9.88 | 12.00 | 17.49 12.67–22.31 11.01–23.97 | 26.00 | 79% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 4.05 2.46–5.63 1.93–6.17 | 3.00 | 3.34 1.93–4.76 1.44–5.24 | 5.00 | 7.39 4.39–10.39 3.37–11.41 | 8.00 | 53% 14% 33% |
| Corners | 5.72 3.51–7.92 2.92–8.52 | 6.00 | 4.14 2.16–6.11 1.62–6.65 | 3.00 | 9.85 5.67–14.04 4.54–15.17 | 9.00 | 63% 25% |
| Possession % | 55.30 48.98–61.62 47.39–63.22 | 52.00 | 43.88 37.56–50.20 35.96–51.80 | 48.00 | — | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 472 407–538 389–555 | 465 | 405 340–469 322–487 | 454 | 877 747–1007 712–1042 | 919 | 72% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.92 73.70–82.14 72.40–83.44 | — | 71.77 67.26–76.28 65.93–77.61 | — | — | — | 76% 20% |
| Fouls | 11.00 8.14–13.86 7.26–14.74 | 11.00 | 10.87 7.92–13.81 7.00–14.73 | 10.00 | 21.87 16.06–27.67 14.26–29.47 | 21.00 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.57–2.99 0.23–3.34 | 1.00 | 1.53 0.37–2.69 0.04–3.03 | 0.00 | 3.31 0.94–5.68 0.26–6.36 | 1.00 | 44% 23% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 1.69 0.64–2.75 0.36–3.02 | 1.00 | 1.87 0.75–2.99 0.46–3.28 | 1.00 | 3.56 1.38–5.73 0.82–6.29 | 2.00 | 35% 22% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 0.00 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.57 1.16–3.98 0.77–4.37 | 6.00 | 2.91 1.35–4.46 0.92–4.89 | 3.00 | 5.48 2.51–8.44 1.69–9.27 | 9.00 | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+