Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: L. Visser
Goals
54%
22%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.941.213.16safe0.98–2.910.36–2.071.34–4.98safer0.72–3.170.11–2.320.83–5.49actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.453.979.42safe3.60–7.312.26–5.685.86–12.99safer3.10–7.811.79–6.144.89–13.95actual6.002.008.00
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8110.5425.35safe11.10–18.517.16–13.9218.26–32.43safer10.07–19.546.23–14.8516.30–34.39actual23.0019.0042.00
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction12.217.3419.55safe9.69–14.735.04–9.6514.74–24.37safer8.83–15.594.25–10.4413.08–26.03actual16.0010.0026.00
Blocked shots
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.052.947.99safe3.47–6.631.53–4.364.99–10.99safer2.93–7.171.04–4.843.97–12.01actual12.005.0017.00
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.643.8510.50safe4.44–8.851.87–5.836.31–14.68safer3.84–9.441.34–6.375.18–15.81actual8.002.0010.00
Possession %
77%
19%
homeawayprediction55.6542.80safe49.33–61.9736.48–49.12safer47.74–63.5634.89–50.72actual60.0040.00
Passes
88%
homeawaytotalprediction5764371013safe511–641372–502883–1143safer493–659355–519848–1178actual580367947
Pass accuracy %
80%
16%
homeawayprediction81.0673.70safe76.84–85.2769.19–78.21safer75.54–86.5767.86–79.54
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction9.9110.3920.30safe7.05–12.767.44–13.3314.49–26.10safer6.16–13.656.53–14.2512.69–27.90actual7.0011.0018.00
Offsides
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.861.763.61safe0.65–3.070.59–2.921.24–5.99safer0.30–3.410.26–3.250.56–6.66actual2.002.004.00
Yellow cards
27%
20%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.572.233.80safe0.51–2.621.11–3.351.62–5.97safer0.24–2.890.82–3.641.06–6.53actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
88%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.090.14safe0.00–0.200.00–0.280.00–0.48safer0.00–0.360.00–0.420.00–0.78actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
29%
17%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.303.075.37safe0.89–3.711.52–4.622.40–8.34safer0.50–4.101.09–5.061.58–9.16actual2.003.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.94 0.98–2.91 0.72–3.17 | 3.00 | 1.21 0.36–2.07 0.11–2.32 | 0.00 | 3.16 1.34–4.98 0.83–5.49 | 3.00 | 54% 22% 24% |
| Shots on target | 5.45 3.60–7.31 3.10–7.81 | 6.00 | 3.97 2.26–5.68 1.79–6.14 | 2.00 | 9.42 5.86–12.99 4.89–13.95 | 8.00 | 63% 26% |
| Total shots | 14.81 11.10–18.51 10.07–19.54 | 23.00 | 10.54 7.16–13.92 6.23–14.85 | 19.00 | 25.35 18.26–32.43 16.30–34.39 | 42.00 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 12.21 9.69–14.73 8.83–15.59 | 16.00 | 7.34 5.04–9.65 4.25–10.44 | 10.00 | 19.55 14.74–24.37 13.08–26.03 | 26.00 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 5.05 3.47–6.63 2.93–7.17 | 12.00 | 2.94 1.53–4.36 1.04–4.84 | 5.00 | 7.99 4.99–10.99 3.97–12.01 | 17.00 | 71% 17% |
| Corners | 6.64 4.44–8.85 3.84–9.44 | 8.00 | 3.85 1.87–5.83 1.34–6.37 | 2.00 | 10.50 6.31–14.68 5.18–15.81 | 10.00 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 55.65 49.33–61.97 47.74–63.56 | 60.00 | 42.80 36.48–49.12 34.89–50.72 | 40.00 | — | — | 77% 19% |
| Passes | 576 511–641 493–659 | 580 | 437 372–502 355–519 | 367 | 1013 883–1143 848–1178 | 947 | 88% |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.06 76.84–85.27 75.54–86.57 | — | 73.70 69.19–78.21 67.86–79.54 | — | — | — | 80% 16% |
| Fouls | 9.91 7.05–12.76 6.16–13.65 | 7.00 | 10.39 7.44–13.33 6.53–14.25 | 11.00 | 20.30 14.49–26.10 12.69–27.90 | 18.00 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.86 0.65–3.07 0.30–3.41 | 2.00 | 1.76 0.59–2.92 0.26–3.25 | 2.00 | 3.61 1.24–5.99 0.56–6.66 | 4.00 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.57 0.51–2.62 0.24–2.89 | 1.00 | 2.23 1.11–3.35 0.82–3.64 | 2.00 | 3.80 1.62–5.97 1.06–6.53 | 3.00 | 27% 20% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.20 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.48 0.00–0.78 | 0.00 | 88% |
| GK saves | 2.30 0.89–3.71 0.50–4.10 | 2.00 | 3.07 1.52–4.62 1.09–5.06 | 3.00 | 5.37 2.40–8.34 1.58–9.16 | 5.00 | 29% 17% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.