Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·
Jupiler Pro League·Regular Season - 7·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Y. Araki
Goals
38%
26%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.391.362.75safe0.43–2.360.50–2.220.93–4.57safer0.17–2.620.25–2.460.42–5.08actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.264.668.92safe2.41–6.122.96–6.375.36–12.49safer1.91–6.622.49–6.844.39–13.46actual4.001.005.00
Total shots
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8713.4826.35safe9.17–16.5810.10–16.8619.27–33.44safer8.14–17.619.17–17.7917.31–35.40actual20.006.0026.00
Shots in box
57%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction8.897.6416.53safe6.37–11.405.34–9.9511.71–21.35safer5.50–12.274.55–10.7410.05–23.01actual14.005.0019.00
Blocked shots
45%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.493.296.78safe1.91–5.081.87–4.703.78–9.78safer1.37–5.611.39–5.192.76–10.80actual3.002.005.00
Corners
45%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.904.769.67safe2.70–7.112.79–6.745.48–13.85safer2.10–7.702.25–7.284.35–14.98actual2.004.006.00
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction48.3649.74safe42.04–54.6843.43–56.06safer40.45–56.2741.83–57.66actual43.0057.00
Passes
57%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction465444909safe399–530379–509779–1039safer382–548362–526744–1074actual403543946
Pass accuracy %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction69.4565.69safe65.23–73.6661.18–70.19safer63.93–74.9659.85–71.52
Fouls
45%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5511.5923.14safe8.69–14.408.65–14.5417.34–28.94safer7.81–15.297.73–15.4615.54–30.75actual20.009.0029.00
Offsides
27%
19%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.762.504.26safe0.55–2.971.34–3.661.89–6.63safer0.21–3.321.00–3.991.21–7.31actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
37%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.651.763.41safe0.60–2.710.64–2.881.23–5.58safer0.32–2.980.35–3.170.67–6.15actual4.001.005.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.080.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
51%
17%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.192.625.81safe1.77–4.601.07–4.172.84–8.78safer1.38–4.990.63–4.612.02–9.60actual1.003.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.39 0.43–2.36 0.17–2.62 | 1.00 | 1.36 0.50–2.22 0.25–2.46 | 0.00 | 2.75 0.93–4.57 0.42–5.08 | 1.00 | 38% 26% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.26 2.41–6.12 1.91–6.62 | 4.00 | 4.66 2.96–6.37 2.49–6.84 | 1.00 | 8.92 5.36–12.49 4.39–13.46 | 5.00 | 38% 13% 49% |
| Total shots | 12.87 9.17–16.58 8.14–17.61 | 20.00 | 13.48 10.10–16.86 9.17–17.79 | 6.00 | 26.35 19.27–33.44 17.31–35.40 | 26.00 | 41% 51% |
| Shots in box | 8.89 6.37–11.40 5.50–12.27 | 14.00 | 7.64 5.34–9.95 4.55–10.74 | 5.00 | 16.53 11.71–21.35 10.05–23.01 | 19.00 | 57% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 1.91–5.08 1.37–5.61 | 3.00 | 3.29 1.87–4.70 1.39–5.19 | 2.00 | 6.78 3.78–9.78 2.76–10.80 | 5.00 | 45% 16% 39% |
| Corners | 4.90 2.70–7.11 2.10–7.70 | 2.00 | 4.76 2.79–6.74 2.25–7.28 | 4.00 | 9.67 5.48–13.85 4.35–14.98 | 6.00 | 45% 42% |
| Possession % | 48.36 42.04–54.68 40.45–56.27 | 43.00 | 49.74 43.43–56.06 41.83–57.66 | 57.00 | — | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 465 399–530 382–548 | 403 | 444 379–509 362–526 | 543 | 909 779–1039 744–1074 | 946 | 57% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.45 65.23–73.66 63.93–74.96 | — | 65.69 61.18–70.19 59.85–71.52 | — | — | — | 66% 30% |
| Fouls | 11.55 8.69–14.40 7.81–15.29 | 20.00 | 11.59 8.65–14.54 7.73–15.46 | 9.00 | 23.14 17.34–28.94 15.54–30.75 | 29.00 | 45% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.55–2.97 0.21–3.32 | 3.00 | 2.50 1.34–3.66 1.00–3.99 | 1.00 | 4.26 1.89–6.63 1.21–7.31 | 4.00 | 27% 19% 54% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.71 0.32–2.98 | 4.00 | 1.76 0.64–2.88 0.35–3.17 | 1.00 | 3.41 1.23–5.58 0.67–6.15 | 5.00 | 37% 23% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 1.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 1.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.19 1.77–4.60 1.38–4.99 | 1.00 | 2.62 1.07–4.17 0.63–4.61 | 3.00 | 5.81 2.84–8.78 2.02–9.60 | 4.00 | 51% 17% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+