Predicted match statistics
Goals
64%
21%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction1.900.792.69safe0.93–2.870.00–1.640.87–4.51safer0.68–3.120.00–1.870.39–4.99
Shots on target
78%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction5.813.068.87safe3.94–7.671.32–4.815.26–12.47safer3.45–8.160.86–5.274.31–13.43
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction16.199.2325.42safe12.26–20.115.67–12.8017.93–32.91safer11.17–21.204.71–13.7515.88–34.96
Shots in box
91%
homeawaytotalprediction11.375.4916.86safe8.42–14.312.81–8.1811.24–22.49safer7.60–15.142.08–8.919.67–24.05
Blocked shots
66%
13%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.212.626.83safe2.33–6.100.96–4.273.29–10.36safer1.79–6.640.47–4.762.26–11.40
Corners
80%
homeawaytotalprediction6.633.4710.10safe4.42–8.841.47–5.475.89–14.31safer3.84–9.420.94–6.004.78–15.42
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction54.7945.78safe48.00–61.5839.00–52.57safer46.33–63.2537.33–54.24
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction519409928safe451–586343–475794–1061safer433–604325–493758–1097
Pass accuracy %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction66.3167.95safe62.28–70.3463.63–72.27safer60.99–71.6462.32–73.58
Fouls
39%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9711.7422.71safe8.13–13.818.80–14.6916.93–28.49safer7.38–14.568.05–15.4315.42–30.00
Offsides
48%
23%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.433.29safe0.69–3.010.34–2.531.03–5.54safer0.39–3.310.05–2.810.44–6.13
Yellow cards
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.532.093.62safe0.48–2.580.96–3.221.44–5.80safer0.21–2.840.67–3.510.88–6.36
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.290.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
19%
13%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction2.203.866.06safe0.76–3.642.30–5.413.06–9.05safer0.38–4.021.88–5.842.25–9.86
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.90 0.93–2.87 0.68–3.12 | 0.79 0.00–1.64 0.00–1.87 | 2.69 0.87–4.51 0.39–4.99 | 64% 21% 15% |
| Shots on target | 5.81 3.94–7.67 3.45–8.16 | 3.06 1.32–4.81 0.86–5.27 | 8.87 5.26–12.47 4.31–13.43 | 78% 13% |
| Total shots | 16.19 12.26–20.11 11.17–21.20 | 9.23 5.67–12.80 4.71–13.75 | 25.42 17.93–32.91 15.88–34.96 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 11.37 8.42–14.31 7.60–15.14 | 5.49 2.81–8.18 2.08–8.91 | 16.86 11.24–22.49 9.67–24.05 | 91% |
| Blocked shots | 4.21 2.33–6.10 1.79–6.64 | 2.62 0.96–4.27 0.47–4.76 | 6.83 3.29–10.36 2.26–11.40 | 66% 13% 21% |
| Corners | 6.63 4.42–8.84 3.84–9.42 | 3.47 1.47–5.47 0.94–6.00 | 10.10 5.89–14.31 4.78–15.42 | 80% |
| Possession % | 54.79 48.00–61.58 46.33–63.25 | 45.78 39.00–52.57 37.33–54.24 | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 519 451–586 433–604 | 409 343–475 325–493 | 928 794–1061 758–1097 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.31 62.28–70.34 60.99–71.64 | 67.95 63.63–72.27 62.32–73.58 | — | 39% 56% |
| Fouls | 10.97 8.13–13.81 7.38–14.56 | 11.74 8.80–14.69 8.05–15.43 | 22.71 16.93–28.49 15.42–30.00 | 39% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.85 0.69–3.01 0.39–3.31 | 1.43 0.34–2.53 0.05–2.81 | 3.29 1.03–5.54 0.44–6.13 | 48% 23% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.48–2.58 0.21–2.84 | 2.09 0.96–3.22 0.67–3.51 | 3.62 1.44–5.80 0.88–6.36 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.20 0.76–3.64 0.38–4.02 | 3.86 2.30–5.41 1.88–5.84 | 6.06 3.06–9.05 2.25–9.86 | 19% 13% 68% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.