Predicted match statistics
Goals
22%
23%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.021.762.78safe0.05–1.990.91–2.620.96–4.60safer0.00–2.240.68–2.840.48–5.08
Shots on target
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.805.138.92safe1.94–5.663.38–6.875.32–12.53safer1.45–6.152.92–7.334.36–13.49
Total shots
37%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0114.2727.28safe9.09–16.9410.71–17.8419.80–34.77safer7.99–18.039.75–18.8017.75–36.82
Shots in box
29%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction8.019.8117.82safe5.07–10.967.13–12.4912.20–23.45safer4.24–11.796.39–13.2310.63–25.01
Blocked shots
34%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.724.368.08safe1.84–5.602.71–6.014.54–11.61safer1.29–6.142.21–6.513.51–12.65
Corners
36%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.675.319.99safe2.46–6.893.31–7.315.78–14.20safer1.89–7.462.78–7.854.67–15.31
Possession %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction42.3757.93safe35.58–49.1651.15–64.72safer33.91–50.8349.48–66.39
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction388523911safe321–455456–589777–1045safer303–474439–607742–1080
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction61.5173.51safe57.48–65.5469.19–77.84safer56.19–66.8367.88–79.15
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7811.0622.84safe8.94–14.628.12–14.0117.06–28.62safer8.18–15.377.37–14.7615.55–30.13
Offsides
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.991.813.81safe0.83–3.150.72–2.901.55–6.06safer0.53–3.460.43–3.190.96–6.65
Yellow cards
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.833.84safe0.96–3.060.70–2.961.66–6.02safer0.70–3.330.41–3.251.10–6.57
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.090.20safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.420.00–0.410.00–0.83
GK saves
51%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.322.776.10safe1.89–4.761.22–4.333.10–9.09safer1.50–5.150.79–4.752.29–9.90
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.02 0.05–1.99 0.00–2.24 | 1.76 0.91–2.62 0.68–2.84 | 2.78 0.96–4.60 0.48–5.08 | 22% 23% 55% |
| Shots on target | 3.80 1.94–5.66 1.45–6.15 | 5.13 3.38–6.87 2.92–7.33 | 8.92 5.32–12.53 4.36–13.49 | 27% 61% |
| Total shots | 13.01 9.09–16.94 7.99–18.03 | 14.27 10.71–17.84 9.75–18.80 | 27.28 19.80–34.77 17.75–36.82 | 37% 56% |
| Shots in box | 8.01 5.07–10.96 4.24–11.79 | 9.81 7.13–12.49 6.39–13.23 | 17.82 12.20–23.45 10.63–25.01 | 29% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 3.72 1.84–5.60 1.29–6.14 | 4.36 2.71–6.01 2.21–6.51 | 8.08 4.54–11.61 3.51–12.65 | 34% 14% 52% |
| Corners | 4.67 2.46–6.89 1.89–7.46 | 5.31 3.31–7.31 2.78–7.85 | 9.99 5.78–14.20 4.67–15.31 | 36% 52% |
| Possession % | 42.37 35.58–49.16 33.91–50.83 | 57.93 51.15–64.72 49.48–66.39 | — | 16% 81% |
| Passes | 388 321–455 303–474 | 523 456–589 439–607 | 911 777–1045 742–1080 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.51 57.48–65.54 56.19–66.83 | 73.51 69.19–77.84 67.88–79.15 | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 11.78 8.94–14.62 8.18–15.37 | 11.06 8.12–14.01 7.37–14.76 | 22.84 17.06–28.62 15.55–30.13 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.83–3.15 0.53–3.46 | 1.81 0.72–2.90 0.43–3.19 | 3.81 1.55–6.06 0.96–6.65 | 43% 21% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.01 0.96–3.06 0.70–3.33 | 1.83 0.70–2.96 0.41–3.25 | 3.84 1.66–6.02 1.10–6.57 | 43% 21% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.32 1.89–4.76 1.50–5.15 | 2.77 1.22–4.33 0.79–4.75 | 6.10 3.10–9.09 2.29–9.90 | 51% 16% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.