Premier League·Regular Season - 8·
Premier League·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Rafael Shafeev · Russia
Goals
49%
26%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.470.952.42safe0.51–2.430.09–1.800.59–4.24safer0.25–2.690.00–2.050.09–4.74actual3.002.005.00
Shots on target
63%
13%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.422.987.40safe2.57–6.281.27–4.693.84–10.97safer2.07–6.780.80–5.152.87–11.93actual4.004.008.00
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3610.2223.59safe9.66–17.076.85–13.6016.50–30.67safer8.63–18.105.92–14.5314.54–32.63actual15.006.0021.00
Shots in box
64%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction8.526.6315.15safe6.00–11.044.33–8.9310.33–19.97safer5.14–11.903.53–9.738.67–21.63actual6.004.0010.00
Blocked shots
58%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.842.826.66safe2.26–5.431.40–4.233.67–9.66safer1.73–5.960.92–4.722.64–10.68actual6.000.006.00
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.594.229.81safe3.38–7.792.24–6.205.62–13.99safer2.79–8.391.71–6.744.49–15.12actual3.004.007.00
Possession %
78%
19%
homeawayprediction56.7443.70safe50.42–63.0537.38–50.02safer48.82–64.6535.78–51.62actual60.0040.00
Passes
85%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction468345813safe403–533281–410683–943safer385–551263–427648–978actual407377784
Pass accuracy %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction69.3464.85safe65.13–73.5660.35–69.36safer63.82–74.8659.02–70.69
Fouls
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0714.4126.48safe9.21–14.9211.47–17.3620.68–32.28safer8.32–15.8110.55–18.2818.87–34.09actual16.0020.0036.00
Offsides
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.382.82safe0.23–2.650.22–2.540.45–5.20safer0.00–3.000.00–2.870.00–5.87actual4.002.006.00
Yellow cards
25%
18%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.862.744.60safe0.80–2.911.62–3.862.42–6.77safer0.53–3.181.33–4.151.86–7.33actual6.003.009.00
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.110.24safe0.00–0.290.00–0.300.00–0.59safer0.00–0.440.00–0.450.00–0.89actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
23%
16%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.943.085.02safe0.53–3.361.53–4.642.06–7.99safer0.14–3.751.10–5.071.23–8.81actual2.002.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.51–2.43 0.25–2.69 | 3.00 | 0.95 0.09–1.80 0.00–2.05 | 2.00 | 2.42 0.59–4.24 0.09–4.74 | 5.00 | 49% 26% 24% |
| Shots on target | 4.42 2.57–6.28 2.07–6.78 | 4.00 | 2.98 1.27–4.69 0.80–5.15 | 4.00 | 7.40 3.84–10.97 2.87–11.93 | 8.00 | 63% 13% 23% |
| Total shots | 13.36 9.66–17.07 8.63–18.10 | 15.00 | 10.22 6.85–13.60 5.92–14.53 | 6.00 | 23.59 16.50–30.67 14.54–32.63 | 21.00 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 8.52 6.00–11.04 5.14–11.90 | 6.00 | 6.63 4.33–8.93 3.53–9.73 | 4.00 | 15.15 10.33–19.97 8.67–21.63 | 10.00 | 64% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 3.84 2.26–5.43 1.73–5.96 | 6.00 | 2.82 1.40–4.23 0.92–4.72 | 0.00 | 6.66 3.67–9.66 2.64–10.68 | 6.00 | 58% 15% 27% |
| Corners | 5.59 3.38–7.79 2.79–8.39 | 3.00 | 4.22 2.24–6.20 1.71–6.74 | 4.00 | 9.81 5.62–13.99 4.49–15.12 | 7.00 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 56.74 50.42–63.05 48.82–64.65 | 60.00 | 43.70 37.38–50.02 35.78–51.62 | 40.00 | — | — | 78% 19% |
| Passes | 468 403–533 385–551 | 407 | 345 281–410 263–427 | 377 | 813 683–943 648–978 | 784 | 85% 15% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.34 65.13–73.56 63.82–74.86 | — | 64.85 60.35–69.36 59.02–70.69 | — | — | — | 69% 27% |
| Fouls | 12.07 9.21–14.92 8.32–15.81 | 16.00 | 14.41 11.47–17.36 10.55–18.28 | 20.00 | 26.48 20.68–32.28 18.87–34.09 | 36.00 | 29% 64% |
| Offsides | 1.44 0.23–2.65 0.00–3.00 | 4.00 | 1.38 0.22–2.54 0.00–2.87 | 2.00 | 2.82 0.45–5.20 0.00–5.87 | 6.00 | 39% 25% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.86 0.80–2.91 0.53–3.18 | 6.00 | 2.74 1.62–3.86 1.33–4.15 | 3.00 | 4.60 2.42–6.77 1.86–7.33 | 9.00 | 25% 18% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 1.00 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.89 | 1.00 | 80% |
| GK saves | 1.94 0.53–3.36 0.14–3.75 | 2.00 | 3.08 1.53–4.64 1.10–5.07 | 2.00 | 5.02 2.06–7.99 1.23–8.81 | 4.00 | 23% 16% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+