Premier League·Regular Season - 26·
Premier League·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
27%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.262.43safe0.20–2.140.40–2.110.60–4.25safer0.00–2.390.17–2.340.12–4.73
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.073.927.99safe2.21–5.932.18–5.674.39–11.60safer1.72–6.421.72–6.133.43–12.55
Total shots
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7511.5224.27safe8.83–16.677.96–15.0816.78–31.76safer7.73–17.777.00–16.0414.73–33.81
Shots in box
49%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction7.557.1214.67safe4.61–10.494.44–9.809.05–20.29safer3.78–11.323.70–10.537.48–21.86
Blocked shots
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.143.166.29safe1.25–5.021.50–4.812.76–9.83safer0.71–5.561.01–5.301.72–10.86
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.164.339.49safe2.95–7.372.33–6.335.28–13.71safer2.37–7.951.80–6.874.17–14.81
Possession %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction46.9253.13safe40.13–53.7146.34–59.91safer38.46–55.3844.67–61.58
Passes
39%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction368401769safe301–436334–467636–903safer283–454317–485600–939
Pass accuracy %
17%
79%
homeawayprediction62.0968.94safe58.06–66.1264.62–73.27safer56.76–67.4163.31–74.58
Fouls
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1213.5029.62safe13.28–18.9610.55–16.4423.83–35.40safer12.53–19.719.80–17.1922.33–36.90
Offsides
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.751.783.53safe0.59–2.910.69–2.871.28–5.78safer0.29–3.210.40–3.160.69–6.37
Yellow cards
40%
18%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.512.545.05safe1.46–3.561.41–3.672.88–7.23safer1.20–3.831.12–3.962.32–7.79
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.140.27safe0.00–0.290.00–0.320.00–0.61safer0.00–0.440.00–0.460.00–0.90
GK saves
39%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.622.775.39safe1.18–4.051.21–4.332.40–8.38safer0.79–4.440.79–4.751.58–9.19
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.20–2.14 0.00–2.39 | 1.26 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.34 | 2.43 0.60–4.25 0.12–4.73 | 34% 27% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.07 2.21–5.93 1.72–6.42 | 3.92 2.18–5.67 1.72–6.13 | 7.99 4.39–11.60 3.43–12.55 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 12.75 8.83–16.67 7.73–17.77 | 11.52 7.96–15.08 7.00–16.04 | 24.27 16.78–31.76 14.73–33.81 | 56% 36% |
| Shots in box | 7.55 4.61–10.49 3.78–11.32 | 7.12 4.44–9.80 3.70–10.53 | 14.67 9.05–20.29 7.48–21.86 | 49% 40% |
| Blocked shots | 3.14 1.25–5.02 0.71–5.56 | 3.16 1.50–4.81 1.01–5.30 | 6.29 2.76–9.83 1.72–10.86 | 42% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 5.16 2.95–7.37 2.37–7.95 | 4.33 2.33–6.33 1.80–6.87 | 9.49 5.28–13.71 4.17–14.81 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 46.92 40.13–53.71 38.46–55.38 | 53.13 46.34–59.91 44.67–61.58 | — | 33% 62% |
| Passes | 368 301–436 283–454 | 401 334–467 317–485 | 769 636–903 600–939 | 39% 61% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.09 58.06–66.12 56.76–67.41 | 68.94 64.62–73.27 63.31–74.58 | — | 17% 79% |
| Fouls | 16.12 13.28–18.96 12.53–19.71 | 13.50 10.55–16.44 9.80–17.19 | 29.62 23.83–35.40 22.33–36.90 | 65% 28% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.59–2.91 0.29–3.21 | 1.78 0.69–2.87 0.40–3.16 | 3.53 1.28–5.78 0.69–6.37 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.51 1.46–3.56 1.20–3.83 | 2.54 1.41–3.67 1.12–3.96 | 5.05 2.88–7.23 2.32–7.79 | 40% 18% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.27 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.90 | 78% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.18–4.05 0.79–4.44 | 2.77 1.21–4.33 0.79–4.75 | 5.39 2.40–8.38 1.58–9.19 | 39% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+