Premier League·Regular Season - 8·
Premier League·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Inal Tanashev · Russia
Goals
65%
21%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction1.940.792.73safe0.98–2.900.00–1.650.91–4.55safer0.72–3.160.00–1.890.40–5.06actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
80%
homeawaytotalprediction5.922.908.81safe4.06–7.771.19–4.605.25–12.38safer3.56–8.270.72–5.074.28–13.35actual3.004.007.00
Total shots
93%
homeawaytotalprediction17.089.2726.35safe13.38–20.785.89–12.6419.26–33.43safer12.35–21.814.96–13.5717.30–35.39actual11.0016.0027.00
Shots in box
92%
homeawaytotalprediction11.735.5717.31safe9.22–14.253.27–7.8712.49–22.12safer8.35–15.112.47–8.6710.83–23.78actual8.0012.0020.00
Blocked shots
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.462.456.91safe2.88–6.041.04–3.873.91–9.91safer2.34–6.580.55–4.352.89–10.93actual1.006.007.00
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.073.389.45safe3.87–8.281.40–5.365.26–13.63safer3.27–8.870.86–5.894.13–14.76actual4.008.0012.00
Possession %
79%
17%
homeawayprediction56.8342.98safe50.51–63.1436.66–49.30safer48.91–64.7435.07–50.90actual39.0061.00
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction495379874safe430–560314–444744–1004safer412–578297–461709–1039actual307481788
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction83.4971.89safe79.27–87.7067.38–76.39safer77.97–89.0166.05–77.72
Fouls
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8414.0124.85safe7.99–13.7011.07–16.9619.05–30.66safer7.10–14.5910.15–17.8717.25–32.46actual9.0013.0022.00
Offsides
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.762.223.98safe0.55–2.971.05–3.381.61–6.35safer0.21–3.320.72–3.710.93–7.03actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
24%
20%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.482.303.78safe0.42–2.531.18–3.421.60–5.96safer0.15–2.800.89–3.711.04–6.52actual2.004.006.00
Red cards
87%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.15safe0.00–0.220.00–0.270.00–0.49safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79actual1.000.001.00
GK saves
17%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction2.143.956.08safe0.72–3.552.39–5.503.11–9.05safer0.33–3.941.96–5.932.29–9.87actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.94 0.98–2.90 0.72–3.16 | 1.00 | 0.79 0.00–1.65 0.00–1.89 | 1.00 | 2.73 0.91–4.55 0.40–5.06 | 2.00 | 65% 21% 14% |
| Shots on target | 5.92 4.06–7.77 3.56–8.27 | 3.00 | 2.90 1.19–4.60 0.72–5.07 | 4.00 | 8.81 5.25–12.38 4.28–13.35 | 7.00 | 80% |
| Total shots | 17.08 13.38–20.78 12.35–21.81 | 11.00 | 9.27 5.89–12.64 4.96–13.57 | 16.00 | 26.35 19.26–33.43 17.30–35.39 | 27.00 | 93% |
| Shots in box | 11.73 9.22–14.25 8.35–15.11 | 8.00 | 5.57 3.27–7.87 2.47–8.67 | 12.00 | 17.31 12.49–22.12 10.83–23.78 | 20.00 | 92% |
| Blocked shots | 4.46 2.88–6.04 2.34–6.58 | 1.00 | 2.45 1.04–3.87 0.55–4.35 | 6.00 | 6.91 3.91–9.91 2.89–10.93 | 7.00 | 72% 17% |
| Corners | 6.07 3.87–8.28 3.27–8.87 | 4.00 | 3.38 1.40–5.36 0.86–5.89 | 8.00 | 9.45 5.26–13.63 4.13–14.76 | 12.00 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 56.83 50.51–63.14 48.91–64.74 | 39.00 | 42.98 36.66–49.30 35.07–50.90 | 61.00 | — | — | 79% 17% |
| Passes | 495 430–560 412–578 | 307 | 379 314–444 297–461 | 481 | 874 744–1004 709–1039 | 788 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.49 79.27–87.70 77.97–89.01 | — | 71.89 67.38–76.39 66.05–77.72 | — | — | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 10.84 7.99–13.70 7.10–14.59 | 9.00 | 14.01 11.07–16.96 10.15–17.87 | 13.00 | 24.85 19.05–30.66 17.25–32.46 | 22.00 | 23% 70% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.55–2.97 0.21–3.32 | 1.00 | 2.22 1.05–3.38 0.72–3.71 | 2.00 | 3.98 1.61–6.35 0.93–7.03 | 3.00 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 1.48 0.42–2.53 0.15–2.80 | 2.00 | 2.30 1.18–3.42 0.89–3.71 | 4.00 | 3.78 1.60–5.96 1.04–6.52 | 6.00 | 24% 20% 56% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.38 | 1.00 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.15 0.00–0.49 0.00–0.79 | 1.00 | 87% |
| GK saves | 2.14 0.72–3.55 0.33–3.94 | 3.00 | 3.95 2.39–5.50 1.96–5.93 | 2.00 | 6.08 3.11–9.05 2.29–9.87 | 5.00 | 17% 70% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+