Premier League·Regular Season - 28·
Premier League·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
24%
24%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.071.682.75safe0.10–2.040.83–2.540.93–4.58safer0.00–2.290.60–2.760.45–5.06
Shots on target
25%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction3.695.158.84safe1.83–5.553.41–6.905.24–12.45safer1.34–6.042.95–7.364.28–13.40
Total shots
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5414.6126.15safe7.62–15.4711.05–18.1818.67–33.64safer6.53–16.5610.09–19.1316.62–35.69
Shots in box
29%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction7.258.9916.24safe4.31–10.196.31–11.6710.61–21.86safer3.48–11.025.57–12.419.05–23.43
Blocked shots
28%
14%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.154.247.39safe1.27–5.032.59–5.903.85–10.93safer0.72–5.572.10–6.392.82–11.96
Corners
41%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction5.175.3910.56safe2.95–7.383.39–7.396.35–14.77safer2.38–7.962.86–7.925.24–15.88
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction45.6355.15safe38.84–52.4248.37–61.94safer37.17–54.0946.69–63.61
Passes
24%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction393477870safe326–460411–544737–1004safer308–478393–561701–1040
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction62.7571.94safe58.72–66.7867.62–76.27safer57.43–68.0766.31–77.58
Fouls
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0012.3026.30safe11.16–16.849.36–15.2520.52–32.08safer10.40–17.598.61–15.9919.01–33.59
Offsides
62%
18%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction2.571.454.02safe1.41–3.730.35–2.541.76–6.27safer1.11–4.030.06–2.831.17–6.86
Yellow cards
44%
22%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.653.56safe0.87–2.960.52–2.781.38–5.74safer0.60–3.230.23–3.070.83–6.30
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.120.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.272.535.80safe1.84–4.710.97–4.082.81–8.79safer1.45–5.100.54–4.511.99–9.60
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.07 0.10–2.04 0.00–2.29 | 1.68 0.83–2.54 0.60–2.76 | 2.75 0.93–4.58 0.45–5.06 | 24% 24% 52% |
| Shots on target | 3.69 1.83–5.55 1.34–6.04 | 5.15 3.41–6.90 2.95–7.36 | 8.84 5.24–12.45 4.28–13.40 | 25% 63% |
| Total shots | 11.54 7.62–15.47 6.53–16.56 | 14.61 11.05–18.18 10.09–19.13 | 26.15 18.67–33.64 16.62–35.69 | 24% 69% |
| Shots in box | 7.25 4.31–10.19 3.48–11.02 | 8.99 6.31–11.67 5.57–12.41 | 16.24 10.61–21.86 9.05–23.43 | 29% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 3.15 1.27–5.03 0.72–5.57 | 4.24 2.59–5.90 2.10–6.39 | 7.39 3.85–10.93 2.82–11.96 | 28% 14% 58% |
| Corners | 5.17 2.95–7.38 2.38–7.96 | 5.39 3.39–7.39 2.86–7.92 | 10.56 6.35–14.77 5.24–15.88 | 41% 47% |
| Possession % | 45.63 38.84–52.42 37.17–54.09 | 55.15 48.37–61.94 46.69–63.61 | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 393 326–460 308–478 | 477 411–544 393–561 | 870 737–1004 701–1040 | 24% 76% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.75 58.72–66.78 57.43–68.07 | 71.94 67.62–76.27 66.31–77.58 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 14.00 11.16–16.84 10.40–17.59 | 12.30 9.36–15.25 8.61–15.99 | 26.30 20.52–32.08 19.01–33.59 | 59% 33% |
| Offsides | 2.57 1.41–3.73 1.11–4.03 | 1.45 0.35–2.54 0.06–2.83 | 4.02 1.76–6.27 1.17–6.86 | 62% 18% 20% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.87–2.96 0.60–3.23 | 1.65 0.52–2.78 0.23–3.07 | 3.56 1.38–5.74 0.83–6.30 | 44% 22% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.27 1.84–4.71 1.45–5.10 | 2.53 0.97–4.08 0.54–4.51 | 5.80 2.81–8.79 1.99–9.60 | 54% 16% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.