Premier League·Regular Season - 8·
Premier League·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Pavel Kukuyan · Russia
Goals
63%
21%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction1.930.822.75safe0.97–2.890.00–1.680.93–4.57safer0.71–3.150.00–1.930.42–5.08actual1.000.001.00
Shots on target
88%
homeawaytotalprediction6.112.298.40safe4.25–7.970.59–4.004.84–11.96safer3.75–8.460.12–4.473.87–12.93actual7.004.0011.00
Total shots
96%
homeawaytotalprediction16.857.6124.46safe13.14–20.554.24–10.9917.38–31.54safer12.11–21.583.31–11.9215.42–33.50actual17.006.0023.00
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction10.135.8215.95safe7.61–12.653.52–8.1211.13–20.77safer6.75–13.512.72–8.929.47–22.43actual9.004.0013.00
Blocked shots
71%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction4.202.316.51safe2.62–5.790.90–3.733.52–9.51safer2.08–6.320.41–4.212.50–10.53actual4.001.005.00
Corners
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.173.489.65safe3.97–8.381.50–5.465.47–13.83safer3.37–8.970.96–5.994.33–14.96actual7.001.008.00
Possession %
88%
homeawayprediction60.7140.92safe54.40–67.0334.60–47.23safer52.80–68.6333.00–48.83actual76.0024.00
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction492314805safe426–557249–378675–935safer409–575232–396640–970actual621182803
Pass accuracy %
96%
homeawayprediction75.7261.49safe71.51–79.9456.98–65.99safer70.20–81.2455.65–67.32
Fouls
17%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9715.3226.29safe8.11–13.8312.38–18.2720.49–32.09safer7.23–14.7111.46–19.1918.69–33.90actual7.0019.0026.00
Offsides
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.712.113.81safe0.50–2.910.94–3.271.44–6.18safer0.15–3.260.61–3.600.76–6.86actual0.005.005.00
Yellow cards
23%
18%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.622.574.19safe0.56–2.671.45–3.692.01–6.36safer0.29–2.941.16–3.981.45–6.92actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.140.23safe0.00–0.240.00–0.330.00–0.57safer0.00–0.400.00–0.470.00–0.87actual0.002.002.00
GK saves
78%
homeawaytotalprediction1.503.775.27safe0.09–2.922.21–5.322.30–8.24safer0.00–3.301.78–5.751.48–9.06actual4.006.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.93 0.97–2.89 0.71–3.15 | 1.00 | 0.82 0.00–1.68 0.00–1.93 | 0.00 | 2.75 0.93–4.57 0.42–5.08 | 1.00 | 63% 21% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.11 4.25–7.97 3.75–8.46 | 7.00 | 2.29 0.59–4.00 0.12–4.47 | 4.00 | 8.40 4.84–11.96 3.87–12.93 | 11.00 | 88% |
| Total shots | 16.85 13.14–20.55 12.11–21.58 | 17.00 | 7.61 4.24–10.99 3.31–11.92 | 6.00 | 24.46 17.38–31.54 15.42–33.50 | 23.00 | 96% |
| Shots in box | 10.13 7.61–12.65 6.75–13.51 | 9.00 | 5.82 3.52–8.12 2.72–8.92 | 4.00 | 15.95 11.13–20.77 9.47–22.43 | 13.00 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 4.20 2.62–5.79 2.08–6.32 | 4.00 | 2.31 0.90–3.73 0.41–4.21 | 1.00 | 6.51 3.52–9.51 2.50–10.53 | 5.00 | 71% 17% |
| Corners | 6.17 3.97–8.38 3.37–8.97 | 7.00 | 3.48 1.50–5.46 0.96–5.99 | 1.00 | 9.65 5.47–13.83 4.33–14.96 | 8.00 | 76% 15% |
| Possession % | 60.71 54.40–67.03 52.80–68.63 | 76.00 | 40.92 34.60–47.23 33.00–48.83 | 24.00 | — | — | 88% |
| Passes | 492 426–557 409–575 | 621 | 314 249–378 232–396 | 182 | 805 675–935 640–970 | 803 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.72 71.51–79.94 70.20–81.24 | — | 61.49 56.98–65.99 55.65–67.32 | — | — | — | 96% |
| Fouls | 10.97 8.11–13.83 7.23–14.71 | 7.00 | 15.32 12.38–18.27 11.46–19.19 | 19.00 | 26.29 20.49–32.09 18.69–33.90 | 26.00 | 17% 77% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.50–2.91 0.15–3.26 | 0.00 | 2.11 0.94–3.27 0.61–3.60 | 5.00 | 3.81 1.44–6.18 0.76–6.86 | 5.00 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 1.62 0.56–2.67 0.29–2.94 | 1.00 | 2.57 1.45–3.69 1.16–3.98 | 3.00 | 4.19 2.01–6.36 1.45–6.92 | 4.00 | 23% 18% 58% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.40 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 2.00 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.87 | 2.00 | 81% |
| GK saves | 1.50 0.09–2.92 0.00–3.30 | 4.00 | 3.77 2.21–5.32 1.78–5.75 | 6.00 | 5.27 2.30–8.24 1.48–9.06 | 10.00 | 78% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.