Premier League·Regular Season - 28·
Premier League·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
23%
24%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.051.742.78safe0.08–2.020.88–2.590.96–4.61safer0.00–2.270.65–2.820.48–5.09
Shots on target
23%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.725.409.13safe1.86–5.593.66–7.145.52–12.73safer1.37–6.083.19–7.614.57–13.69
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5416.0826.62safe6.61–14.4612.52–19.6419.13–34.10safer5.52–15.5511.56–20.6017.08–36.15
Shots in box
21%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction7.039.8016.83safe4.09–9.977.12–12.4811.21–22.46safer3.26–10.806.38–13.229.64–24.02
Blocked shots
27%
15%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.753.826.57safe0.87–4.632.16–5.473.03–10.10safer0.32–5.181.67–5.962.00–11.14
Corners
20%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction3.885.999.87safe1.67–6.103.99–7.995.65–14.08safer1.09–6.673.45–8.524.55–15.19
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction37.7263.37safe30.93–44.5156.59–70.16safer29.26–46.1854.92–71.83
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction295506800safe227–362439–572667–934safer209–380422–590631–970
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction55.4773.96safe51.44–59.5069.63–78.28safer50.15–60.8068.33–79.59
Fouls
75%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1112.0528.16safe13.27–18.959.10–14.9922.37–33.94safer12.52–19.708.35–15.7420.87–35.44
Offsides
69%
15%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction3.261.644.90safe2.10–4.420.54–2.732.64–7.15safer1.80–4.720.26–3.022.05–7.74
Yellow cards
55%
19%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.461.674.13safe1.41–3.510.54–2.791.95–6.31safer1.15–3.780.25–3.091.39–6.86
Red cards
13%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.120.28safe0.00–0.320.00–0.310.00–0.63safer0.00–0.470.00–0.440.00–0.91
GK saves
61%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.542.355.89safe2.10–4.970.80–3.912.90–8.88safer1.71–5.360.37–4.332.08–9.69
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.05 0.08–2.02 0.00–2.27 | 1.74 0.88–2.59 0.65–2.82 | 2.78 0.96–4.61 0.48–5.09 | 23% 24% 54% |
| Shots on target | 3.72 1.86–5.59 1.37–6.08 | 5.40 3.66–7.14 3.19–7.61 | 9.13 5.52–12.73 4.57–13.69 | 23% 65% |
| Total shots | 10.54 6.61–14.46 5.52–15.55 | 16.08 12.52–19.64 11.56–20.60 | 26.62 19.13–34.10 17.08–36.15 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 7.03 4.09–9.97 3.26–10.80 | 9.80 7.12–12.48 6.38–13.22 | 16.83 11.21–22.46 9.64–24.02 | 21% 71% |
| Blocked shots | 2.75 0.87–4.63 0.32–5.18 | 3.82 2.16–5.47 1.67–5.96 | 6.57 3.03–10.10 2.00–11.14 | 27% 15% 59% |
| Corners | 3.88 1.67–6.10 1.09–6.67 | 5.99 3.99–7.99 3.45–8.52 | 9.87 5.65–14.08 4.55–15.19 | 20% 70% |
| Possession % | 37.72 30.93–44.51 29.26–46.18 | 63.37 56.59–70.16 54.92–71.83 | — | 93% |
| Passes | 295 227–362 209–380 | 506 439–572 422–590 | 800 667–934 631–970 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 55.47 51.44–59.50 50.15–60.80 | 73.96 69.63–78.28 68.33–79.59 | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 16.11 13.27–18.95 12.52–19.70 | 12.05 9.10–14.99 8.35–15.74 | 28.16 22.37–33.94 20.87–35.44 | 75% 19% |
| Offsides | 3.26 2.10–4.42 1.80–4.72 | 1.64 0.54–2.73 0.26–3.02 | 4.90 2.64–7.15 2.05–7.74 | 69% 15% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 2.46 1.41–3.51 1.15–3.78 | 1.67 0.54–2.79 0.25–3.09 | 4.13 1.95–6.31 1.39–6.86 | 55% 19% 26% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.91 | 13% 77% |
| GK saves | 3.54 2.10–4.97 1.71–5.36 | 2.35 0.80–3.91 0.37–4.33 | 5.89 2.90–8.88 2.08–9.69 | 61% 15% 24% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.