Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Mikhail Plisko · Russia
Goals
28%
28%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction0.981.312.29safe0.02–1.940.45–2.170.47–4.11safer0.00–2.200.20–2.410.00–4.62actual2.002.004.00
Shots on target
32%
14%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.344.147.48safe1.48–5.202.43–5.853.92–11.04safer0.99–5.701.97–6.322.95–12.01actual3.004.007.00
Total shots
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction9.8212.6122.43safe6.11–13.529.23–15.9915.35–29.51safer5.08–14.558.30–16.9213.39–31.47actual9.0018.0027.00
Shots in box
32%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction6.557.8114.36safe4.04–9.075.51–10.119.54–19.18safer3.17–9.934.71–10.917.88–20.84actual5.0014.0019.00
Blocked shots
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.583.315.89safe0.99–4.161.90–4.732.89–8.88safer0.46–4.691.41–5.211.87–9.91actual2.005.007.00
Corners
41%
13%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.464.609.06safe2.25–6.662.63–6.584.88–13.25safer1.66–7.262.09–7.123.75–14.38actual3.007.0010.00
Possession %
68%
28%
homeawayprediction53.9745.65safe47.65–60.2939.33–51.97safer46.06–61.8837.73–53.57actual39.0061.00
Passes
81%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction438336774safe373–504271–401644–904safer355–521254–418609–939actual237360597
Pass accuracy %
58%
38%
homeawayprediction63.5361.51safe59.31–67.7457.00–66.01safer58.01–69.0555.67–67.34
Fouls
15%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8216.8428.67safe8.97–14.6813.90–19.7922.86–34.47safer8.08–15.5612.98–20.7121.06–36.27actual17.0011.0028.00
Offsides
38%
23%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.733.40safe0.46–2.880.56–2.891.02–5.77safer0.12–3.230.23–3.220.35–6.45actual1.002.003.00
Yellow cards
34%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.052.394.44safe0.99–3.101.27–3.512.26–6.62safer0.72–3.370.98–3.801.70–7.18actual1.003.004.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.090.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.430.00–0.85actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
56%
17%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.932.054.98safe1.52–4.350.49–3.602.01–7.95safer1.13–4.740.06–4.031.19–8.77actual2.001.003.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.98 0.02–1.94 0.00–2.20 | 2.00 | 1.31 0.45–2.17 0.20–2.41 | 2.00 | 2.29 0.47–4.11 0.00–4.62 | 4.00 | 28% 28% 44% |
| Shots on target | 3.34 1.48–5.20 0.99–5.70 | 3.00 | 4.14 2.43–5.85 1.97–6.32 | 4.00 | 7.48 3.92–11.04 2.95–12.01 | 7.00 | 32% 14% 54% |
| Total shots | 9.82 6.11–13.52 5.08–14.55 | 9.00 | 12.61 9.23–15.99 8.30–16.92 | 18.00 | 22.43 15.35–29.51 13.39–31.47 | 27.00 | 24% 69% |
| Shots in box | 6.55 4.04–9.07 3.17–9.93 | 5.00 | 7.81 5.51–10.11 4.71–10.91 | 14.00 | 14.36 9.54–19.18 7.88–20.84 | 19.00 | 32% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 2.58 0.99–4.16 0.46–4.69 | 2.00 | 3.31 1.90–4.73 1.41–5.21 | 5.00 | 5.89 2.89–8.88 1.87–9.91 | 7.00 | 30% 16% 54% |
| Corners | 4.46 2.25–6.66 1.66–7.26 | 3.00 | 4.60 2.63–6.58 2.09–7.12 | 7.00 | 9.06 4.88–13.25 3.75–14.38 | 10.00 | 41% 13% 45% |
| Possession % | 53.97 47.65–60.29 46.06–61.88 | 39.00 | 45.65 39.33–51.97 37.73–53.57 | 61.00 | — | — | 68% 28% |
| Passes | 438 373–504 355–521 | 237 | 336 271–401 254–418 | 360 | 774 644–904 609–939 | 597 | 81% 19% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.53 59.31–67.74 58.01–69.05 | — | 61.51 57.00–66.01 55.67–67.34 | — | — | — | 58% 38% |
| Fouls | 11.82 8.97–14.68 8.08–15.56 | 17.00 | 16.84 13.90–19.79 12.98–20.71 | 11.00 | 28.67 22.86–34.47 21.06–36.27 | 28.00 | 15% 80% |
| Offsides | 1.67 0.46–2.88 0.12–3.23 | 1.00 | 1.73 0.56–2.89 0.23–3.22 | 2.00 | 3.40 1.02–5.77 0.35–6.45 | 3.00 | 38% 23% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 0.99–3.10 0.72–3.37 | 1.00 | 2.39 1.27–3.51 0.98–3.80 | 3.00 | 4.44 2.26–6.62 1.70–7.18 | 4.00 | 34% 19% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.00 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.00 | 0.21 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.85 | 0.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.93 1.52–4.35 1.13–4.74 | 2.00 | 2.05 0.49–3.60 0.06–4.03 | 1.00 | 4.98 2.01–7.95 1.19–8.77 | 3.00 | 56% 17% 26% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.