Premier League·Regular Season - 8·
Premier League·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Vasiliy Kazartsev · Russia
Goals
72%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.310.763.07safe1.34–3.270.00–1.621.24–4.89safer1.08–3.530.00–1.870.74–5.40actual1.001.002.00
Shots on target
84%
homeawaytotalprediction6.312.819.12safe4.45–8.171.10–4.525.56–12.68safer3.95–8.670.63–4.984.59–13.65actual8.004.0012.00
Total shots
95%
homeawaytotalprediction17.879.0126.88safe14.17–21.575.63–12.3919.80–33.96safer13.14–22.604.70–13.3217.83–35.92actual21.008.0029.00
Shots in box
90%
homeawaytotalprediction10.885.3116.19safe8.36–13.393.01–7.6111.37–21.01safer7.50–14.262.21–8.419.71–22.67actual16.004.0020.00
Blocked shots
67%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.182.516.69safe2.60–5.771.10–3.923.70–9.69safer2.06–6.300.61–4.412.67–10.71actual4.002.006.00
Corners
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.383.8510.23safe4.17–8.581.87–5.836.04–14.41safer3.58–9.181.34–6.374.91–15.54actual8.001.009.00
Possession %
91%
homeawayprediction61.5139.73safe55.19–67.8333.41–46.05safer53.60–69.4231.81–47.65actual66.0034.00
Passes
91%
homeawaytotalprediction477319796safe412–543254–383666–926safer394–560237–401631–961actual531245776
Pass accuracy %
95%
homeawayprediction80.6067.26safe76.38–84.8162.75–71.77safer75.08–86.1161.42–73.10
Fouls
18%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4415.6927.13safe8.58–14.3012.74–18.6321.33–32.93safer7.70–15.1811.82–19.5519.52–34.73actual12.0018.0030.00
Offsides
30%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.193.88safe0.48–2.901.03–3.351.51–6.25safer0.14–3.250.69–3.680.83–6.93actual4.000.004.00
Yellow cards
23%
18%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.632.644.27safe0.57–2.681.52–3.762.09–6.44safer0.30–2.961.23–4.051.53–7.01actual2.006.008.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.120.18safe0.00–0.210.00–0.320.00–0.52safer0.00–0.360.00–0.460.00–0.82actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
16%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction2.064.006.06safe0.65–3.482.45–5.553.10–9.03safer0.26–3.872.02–5.992.27–9.85actual3.007.0010.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.31 1.34–3.27 1.08–3.53 | 1.00 | 0.76 0.00–1.62 0.00–1.87 | 1.00 | 3.07 1.24–4.89 0.74–5.40 | 2.00 | 72% 17% |
| Shots on target | 6.31 4.45–8.17 3.95–8.67 | 8.00 | 2.81 1.10–4.52 0.63–4.98 | 4.00 | 9.12 5.56–12.68 4.59–13.65 | 12.00 | 84% |
| Total shots | 17.87 14.17–21.57 13.14–22.60 | 21.00 | 9.01 5.63–12.39 4.70–13.32 | 8.00 | 26.88 19.80–33.96 17.83–35.92 | 29.00 | 95% |
| Shots in box | 10.88 8.36–13.39 7.50–14.26 | 16.00 | 5.31 3.01–7.61 2.21–8.41 | 4.00 | 16.19 11.37–21.01 9.71–22.67 | 20.00 | 90% |
| Blocked shots | 4.18 2.60–5.77 2.06–6.30 | 4.00 | 2.51 1.10–3.92 0.61–4.41 | 2.00 | 6.69 3.70–9.69 2.67–10.71 | 6.00 | 67% 20% |
| Corners | 6.38 4.17–8.58 3.58–9.18 | 8.00 | 3.85 1.87–5.83 1.34–6.37 | 1.00 | 10.23 6.04–14.41 4.91–15.54 | 9.00 | 74% 17% |
| Possession % | 61.51 55.19–67.83 53.60–69.42 | 66.00 | 39.73 33.41–46.05 31.81–47.65 | 34.00 | — | — | 91% |
| Passes | 477 412–543 394–560 | 531 | 319 254–383 237–401 | 245 | 796 666–926 631–961 | 776 | 91% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.60 76.38–84.81 75.08–86.11 | — | 67.26 62.75–71.77 61.42–73.10 | — | — | — | 95% |
| Fouls | 11.44 8.58–14.30 7.70–15.18 | 12.00 | 15.69 12.74–18.63 11.82–19.55 | 18.00 | 27.13 21.33–32.93 19.52–34.73 | 30.00 | 18% 76% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.48–2.90 0.14–3.25 | 4.00 | 2.19 1.03–3.35 0.69–3.68 | 0.00 | 3.88 1.51–6.25 0.83–6.93 | 4.00 | 30% 20% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.57–2.68 0.30–2.96 | 2.00 | 2.64 1.52–3.76 1.23–4.05 | 6.00 | 4.27 2.09–6.44 1.53–7.01 | 8.00 | 23% 18% 59% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.12 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.00 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.82 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.06 0.65–3.48 0.26–3.87 | 3.00 | 4.00 2.45–5.55 2.02–5.99 | 7.00 | 6.06 3.10–9.03 2.27–9.85 | 10.00 | 16% 72% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.