Premier League·Regular Season - 8·
Premier League·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Vladimir Moskalev · Russia
Goals
62%
23%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction1.780.762.54safe0.82–2.740.00–1.620.72–4.37safer0.56–3.000.00–1.870.21–4.87actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.313.208.50safe3.45–7.161.49–4.904.94–12.07safer2.95–7.661.02–5.373.97–13.03actual4.006.0010.00
Total shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction15.479.4024.87safe11.77–19.186.02–12.7817.79–31.95safer10.74–20.215.09–13.7115.83–33.92actual19.0017.0036.00
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction10.485.4015.87safe7.96–12.993.10–7.7011.06–20.69safer7.09–13.862.30–8.509.40–22.35actual14.0010.0024.00
Blocked shots
68%
13%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.012.336.34safe2.43–5.590.91–3.743.34–9.34safer1.89–6.130.43–4.232.32–10.36actual6.004.0010.00
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.803.819.61safe3.60–8.011.83–5.785.42–13.79safer3.00–8.601.29–6.324.29–14.92actual3.007.0010.00
Possession %
73%
23%
homeawayprediction55.8744.96safe49.55–62.1938.64–51.28safer47.96–63.7937.04–52.88actual56.0044.00
Passes
78%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction454363817safe388–519299–428687–947safer371–536281–446652–982actual461357818
Pass accuracy %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction76.5272.71safe72.31–80.7468.20–77.22safer71.01–82.0466.87–78.55
Fouls
54%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6512.6926.34safe10.79–16.519.74–15.6320.54–32.14safer9.91–17.398.83–16.5518.73–33.94actual10.0019.0029.00
Offsides
48%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.493.41safe0.71–3.130.33–2.651.04–5.78safer0.37–3.480.00–2.980.36–6.46actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.062.164.21safe1.00–3.111.04–3.282.04–6.39safer0.73–3.390.75–3.571.48–6.95actual1.005.006.00
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
26%
16%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.253.275.52safe0.83–3.661.72–4.822.55–8.49safer0.45–4.051.28–5.261.73–9.31actual5.002.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.78 0.82–2.74 0.56–3.00 | 2.00 | 0.76 0.00–1.62 0.00–1.87 | 1.00 | 2.54 0.72–4.37 0.21–4.87 | 3.00 | 62% 23% 16% |
| Shots on target | 5.31 3.45–7.16 2.95–7.66 | 4.00 | 3.20 1.49–4.90 1.02–5.37 | 6.00 | 8.50 4.94–12.07 3.97–13.03 | 10.00 | 71% 18% |
| Total shots | 15.47 11.77–19.18 10.74–20.21 | 19.00 | 9.40 6.02–12.78 5.09–13.71 | 17.00 | 24.87 17.79–31.95 15.83–33.92 | 36.00 | 87% |
| Shots in box | 10.48 7.96–12.99 7.09–13.86 | 14.00 | 5.40 3.10–7.70 2.30–8.50 | 10.00 | 15.87 11.06–20.69 9.40–22.35 | 24.00 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 4.01 2.43–5.59 1.89–6.13 | 6.00 | 2.33 0.91–3.74 0.43–4.23 | 4.00 | 6.34 3.34–9.34 2.32–10.36 | 10.00 | 68% 13% 19% |
| Corners | 5.80 3.60–8.01 3.00–8.60 | 3.00 | 3.81 1.83–5.78 1.29–6.32 | 7.00 | 9.61 5.42–13.79 4.29–14.92 | 10.00 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 55.87 49.55–62.19 47.96–63.79 | 56.00 | 44.96 38.64–51.28 37.04–52.88 | 44.00 | — | — | 73% 23% |
| Passes | 454 388–519 371–536 | 461 | 363 299–428 281–446 | 357 | 817 687–947 652–982 | 818 | 78% 22% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.52 72.31–80.74 71.01–82.04 | — | 72.71 68.20–77.22 66.87–78.55 | — | — | — | 66% 30% |
| Fouls | 13.65 10.79–16.51 9.91–17.39 | 10.00 | 12.69 9.74–15.63 8.83–16.55 | 19.00 | 26.34 20.54–32.14 18.73–33.94 | 29.00 | 54% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.92 0.71–3.13 0.37–3.48 | 0.00 | 1.49 0.33–2.65 0.00–2.98 | 1.00 | 3.41 1.04–5.78 0.36–6.46 | 1.00 | 48% 22% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.06 1.00–3.11 0.73–3.39 | 1.00 | 2.16 1.04–3.28 0.75–3.57 | 5.00 | 4.21 2.04–6.39 1.48–6.95 | 6.00 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.83 | 0.00 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.25 0.83–3.66 0.45–4.05 | 5.00 | 3.27 1.72–4.82 1.28–5.26 | 2.00 | 5.52 2.55–8.49 1.73–9.31 | 7.00 | 26% 16% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.