Premier League·Regular Season - 22·
Premier League·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
26%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.412.64safe0.27–2.210.55–2.260.82–4.47safer0.02–2.460.32–2.490.34–4.95
Shots on target
48%
13%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.704.359.05safe2.84–6.562.60–6.095.44–12.65safer2.35–7.052.14–6.564.49–13.61
Total shots
49%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2513.9428.19safe10.33–18.1810.38–17.5020.70–35.68safer9.23–19.279.42–18.4618.65–37.73
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.738.6517.38safe5.79–11.675.97–11.3311.76–23.00safer4.96–12.505.23–12.0710.19–24.57
Blocked shots
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.313.366.67safe1.43–5.191.70–5.013.13–10.20safer0.88–5.741.21–5.502.10–11.24
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.354.559.90safe3.13–7.562.55–6.555.68–14.11safer2.56–8.142.01–7.084.57–15.22
Possession %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction50.4450.12safe43.65–57.2343.34–56.91safer41.98–58.9041.67–58.58
Passes
54%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction421409830safe354–488342–475696–964safer336–507325–493660–999
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction66.8769.54safe62.84–70.9065.22–73.87safer61.54–72.1963.91–75.18
Fouls
43%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction15.5516.0131.56safe12.71–18.3913.06–18.9525.77–37.34safer11.96–19.1412.31–19.7024.27–38.84
Offsides
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.893.87safe0.82–3.140.79–2.981.62–6.12safer0.52–3.440.51–3.271.03–6.71
Yellow cards
41%
18%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.722.745.45safe1.67–3.771.61–3.873.28–7.63safer1.40–4.031.32–4.162.72–8.19
Red cards
76%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.150.29safe0.00–0.300.00–0.330.00–0.64safer0.00–0.450.00–0.460.00–0.92
GK saves
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.263.416.67safe1.82–4.701.86–4.973.68–9.67safer1.44–5.081.43–5.392.87–10.48
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.21 0.02–2.46 | 1.41 0.55–2.26 0.32–2.49 | 2.64 0.82–4.47 0.34–4.95 | 33% 26% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.70 2.84–6.56 2.35–7.05 | 4.35 2.60–6.09 2.14–6.56 | 9.05 5.44–12.65 4.49–13.61 | 48% 13% 39% |
| Total shots | 14.25 10.33–18.18 9.23–19.27 | 13.94 10.38–17.50 9.42–18.46 | 28.19 20.70–35.68 18.65–37.73 | 49% 44% |
| Shots in box | 8.73 5.79–11.67 4.96–12.50 | 8.65 5.97–11.33 5.23–12.07 | 17.38 11.76–23.00 10.19–24.57 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.31 1.43–5.19 0.88–5.74 | 3.36 1.70–5.01 1.21–5.50 | 6.67 3.13–10.20 2.10–11.24 | 41% 16% 43% |
| Corners | 5.35 3.13–7.56 2.56–8.14 | 4.55 2.55–6.55 2.01–7.08 | 9.90 5.68–14.11 4.57–15.22 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 50.44 43.65–57.23 41.98–58.90 | 50.12 43.34–56.91 41.67–58.58 | — | 48% 47% |
| Passes | 421 354–488 336–507 | 409 342–475 325–493 | 830 696–964 660–999 | 54% 46% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.87 62.84–70.90 61.54–72.19 | 69.54 65.22–73.87 63.91–75.18 | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 15.55 12.71–18.39 11.96–19.14 | 16.01 13.06–18.95 12.31–19.70 | 31.56 25.77–37.34 24.27–38.84 | 43% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.82–3.14 0.52–3.44 | 1.89 0.79–2.98 0.51–3.27 | 3.87 1.62–6.12 1.03–6.71 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.72 1.67–3.77 1.40–4.03 | 2.74 1.61–3.87 1.32–4.16 | 5.45 3.28–7.63 2.72–8.19 | 41% 18% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.15 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.29 0.00–0.64 0.00–0.92 | 76% |
| GK saves | 3.26 1.82–4.70 1.44–5.08 | 3.41 1.86–4.97 1.43–5.39 | 6.67 3.68–9.67 2.87–10.48 | 40% 16% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.