Premier League·Regular Season - 8·
Premier League·Regular Season - 8·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Ivan Abrosimov · Russia
Goals
61%
22%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction1.870.852.73safe0.91–2.840.00–1.710.90–4.55safer0.65–3.100.00–1.960.40–5.06actual3.000.003.00
Shots on target
22%
14%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction2.654.106.75safe0.79–4.502.40–5.813.19–10.31safer0.29–5.001.93–6.282.22–11.28actual9.007.0016.00
Total shots
20%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3115.1326.45safe7.61–15.0211.75–18.5119.37–33.53safer6.58–16.0510.82–19.4417.40–35.49actual15.009.0024.00
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction9.666.3616.02safe7.14–12.184.06–8.6711.21–20.84safer6.28–13.043.27–9.469.54–22.50actual9.004.0013.00
Blocked shots
62%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.772.506.27safe2.19–5.361.09–3.913.27–9.27safer1.65–5.890.60–4.402.25–10.29actual1.000.001.00
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.453.5910.04safe4.24–8.651.62–5.575.86–14.22safer3.64–9.251.08–6.114.72–15.36actual3.005.008.00
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction61.3936.21safe55.08–67.7129.89–42.53safer53.48–69.3128.29–44.12actual65.0035.00
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction538322860safe473–604257–386730–990safer456–621239–404695–1025actual510309819
Pass accuracy %
98%
homeawayprediction80.8264.48safe76.61–85.0459.97–68.98safer75.31–86.3458.64–70.31
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6013.0424.64safe8.74–14.4610.09–15.9818.83–30.44safer7.86–15.349.17–16.9017.03–32.24actual11.0014.0025.00
Offsides
34%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.073.84safe0.56–2.980.91–3.241.47–6.21safer0.21–3.320.58–3.570.79–6.89actual1.003.004.00
Yellow cards
28%
19%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.832.544.36safe0.77–2.881.42–3.662.19–6.54safer0.50–3.151.13–3.951.62–7.10actual2.003.005.00
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.070.20safe0.00–0.290.00–0.260.00–0.55safer0.00–0.440.00–0.400.00–0.84actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
43%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.272.134.40safe0.85–3.680.57–3.681.43–7.36safer0.46–4.070.14–4.110.61–8.18actual7.007.0014.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.87 0.91–2.84 0.65–3.10 | 3.00 | 0.85 0.00–1.71 0.00–1.96 | 0.00 | 2.73 0.90–4.55 0.40–5.06 | 3.00 | 61% 22% 17% |
| Shots on target | 2.65 0.79–4.50 0.29–5.00 | 9.00 | 4.10 2.40–5.81 1.93–6.28 | 7.00 | 6.75 3.19–10.31 2.22–11.28 | 16.00 | 22% 14% 64% |
| Total shots | 11.31 7.61–15.02 6.58–16.05 | 15.00 | 15.13 11.75–18.51 10.82–19.44 | 9.00 | 26.45 19.37–33.53 17.40–35.49 | 24.00 | 20% 74% |
| Shots in box | 9.66 7.14–12.18 6.28–13.04 | 9.00 | 6.36 4.06–8.67 3.27–9.46 | 4.00 | 16.02 11.21–20.84 9.54–22.50 | 13.00 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 3.77 2.19–5.36 1.65–5.89 | 1.00 | 2.50 1.09–3.91 0.60–4.40 | 0.00 | 6.27 3.27–9.27 2.25–10.29 | 1.00 | 62% 14% 24% |
| Corners | 6.45 4.24–8.65 3.64–9.25 | 3.00 | 3.59 1.62–5.57 1.08–6.11 | 5.00 | 10.04 5.86–14.22 4.72–15.36 | 8.00 | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 61.39 55.08–67.71 53.48–69.31 | 65.00 | 36.21 29.89–42.53 28.29–44.12 | 35.00 | — | — | 94% |
| Passes | 538 473–604 456–621 | 510 | 322 257–386 239–404 | 309 | 860 730–990 695–1025 | 819 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.82 76.61–85.04 75.31–86.34 | — | 64.48 59.97–68.98 58.64–70.31 | — | — | — | 98% |
| Fouls | 11.60 8.74–14.46 7.86–15.34 | 11.00 | 13.04 10.09–15.98 9.17–16.90 | 14.00 | 24.64 18.83–30.44 17.03–32.24 | 25.00 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.56–2.98 0.21–3.32 | 1.00 | 2.07 0.91–3.24 0.58–3.57 | 3.00 | 3.84 1.47–6.21 0.79–6.89 | 4.00 | 34% 21% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 1.83 0.77–2.88 0.50–3.15 | 2.00 | 2.54 1.42–3.66 1.13–3.95 | 3.00 | 4.36 2.19–6.54 1.62–7.10 | 5.00 | 28% 19% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.40 | 1.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 1.00 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.27 0.85–3.68 0.46–4.07 | 7.00 | 2.13 0.57–3.68 0.14–4.11 | 7.00 | 4.40 1.43–7.36 0.61–8.18 | 14.00 | 43% 20% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.