Premier League·Regular Season - 30·
Premier League·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
24%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction0.961.712.67safe0.00–1.930.86–2.560.85–4.49safer0.00–2.180.63–2.790.37–4.97
Shots on target
23%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.344.978.32safe1.48–5.203.23–6.724.71–11.92safer0.99–5.692.77–7.183.76–12.88
Total shots
20%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction9.9313.5023.43safe6.00–13.859.94–17.0715.94–30.92safer4.91–14.948.98–18.0313.89–32.97
Shots in box
24%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction6.338.5814.91safe3.39–9.275.90–11.269.29–20.53safer2.56–10.105.16–12.007.72–22.10
Blocked shots
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.573.586.15safe0.69–4.461.92–5.232.62–9.69safer0.15–5.001.43–5.721.58–10.72
Corners
24%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction3.535.138.66safe1.32–5.753.13–7.134.45–12.88safer0.74–6.322.60–7.663.34–13.98
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction37.1862.99safe30.39–43.9756.20–69.77safer28.72–45.6454.53–71.45
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction294506800safe227–361439–572666–933safer209–379422–590630–969
Pass accuracy %
98%
homeawayprediction58.7574.71safe54.72–62.7870.38–79.03safer53.43–64.0769.07–80.34
Fouls
69%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction16.9413.7430.68safe14.11–19.7810.79–16.6824.90–36.46safer13.35–20.5410.04–17.4323.39–37.97
Offsides
49%
23%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.821.313.14safe0.66–2.980.22–2.410.88–5.39safer0.36–3.280.00–2.700.29–5.98
Yellow cards
41%
19%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.352.324.68safe1.30–3.401.20–3.452.50–6.85safer1.04–3.670.90–3.751.94–7.41
Red cards
14%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction0.170.140.31safe0.01–0.330.00–0.330.00–0.66safer0.00–0.480.00–0.460.00–0.94
GK saves
51%
17%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction3.112.545.65safe1.68–4.550.98–4.102.66–8.65safer1.29–4.940.56–4.521.85–9.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.96 0.00–1.93 0.00–2.18 | 1.71 0.86–2.56 0.63–2.79 | 2.67 0.85–4.49 0.37–4.97 | 21% 24% 55% |
| Shots on target | 3.34 1.48–5.20 0.99–5.69 | 4.97 3.23–6.72 2.77–7.18 | 8.32 4.71–11.92 3.76–12.88 | 23% 65% |
| Total shots | 9.93 6.00–13.85 4.91–14.94 | 13.50 9.94–17.07 8.98–18.03 | 23.43 15.94–30.92 13.89–32.97 | 20% 74% |
| Shots in box | 6.33 3.39–9.27 2.56–10.10 | 8.58 5.90–11.26 5.16–12.00 | 14.91 9.29–20.53 7.72–22.10 | 24% 67% |
| Blocked shots | 2.57 0.69–4.46 0.15–5.00 | 3.58 1.92–5.23 1.43–5.72 | 6.15 2.62–9.69 1.58–10.72 | 27% 15% 58% |
| Corners | 3.53 1.32–5.75 0.74–6.32 | 5.13 3.13–7.13 2.60–7.66 | 8.66 4.45–12.88 3.34–13.98 | 24% 64% |
| Possession % | 37.18 30.39–43.97 28.72–45.64 | 62.99 56.20–69.77 54.53–71.45 | — | 93% |
| Passes | 294 227–361 209–379 | 506 439–572 422–590 | 800 666–933 630–969 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 58.75 54.72–62.78 53.43–64.07 | 74.71 70.38–79.03 69.07–80.34 | — | 98% |
| Fouls | 16.94 14.11–19.78 13.35–20.54 | 13.74 10.79–16.68 10.04–17.43 | 30.68 24.90–36.46 23.39–37.97 | 69% 25% |
| Offsides | 1.82 0.66–2.98 0.36–3.28 | 1.31 0.22–2.41 0.00–2.70 | 3.14 0.88–5.39 0.29–5.98 | 49% 23% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 2.35 1.30–3.40 1.04–3.67 | 2.32 1.20–3.45 0.90–3.75 | 4.68 2.50–6.85 1.94–7.41 | 41% 19% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.17 0.01–0.33 0.00–0.48 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.31 0.00–0.66 0.00–0.94 | 14% 75% |
| GK saves | 3.11 1.68–4.55 1.29–4.94 | 2.54 0.98–4.10 0.56–4.52 | 5.65 2.66–8.65 1.85–9.46 | 51% 17% 32% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.