Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Nikita Novikov · Russia
Goals
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.230.662.89safe1.26–3.190.00–1.521.07–4.71safer1.00–3.450.00–1.770.56–5.22actual2.001.003.00
Shots on target
91%
homeawaytotalprediction6.772.349.11safe4.91–8.620.64–4.055.55–12.67safer4.41–9.120.17–4.524.58–13.64actual4.004.008.00
Total shots
98%
homeawaytotalprediction18.948.2327.17safe15.23–22.644.86–11.6120.09–34.25safer14.20–23.673.92–12.5418.13–36.21actual18.0014.0032.00
Shots in box
96%
homeawaytotalprediction12.354.9217.26safe9.83–14.862.61–7.2212.45–22.08safer8.97–15.731.82–8.0110.78–23.74actual15.007.0022.00
Blocked shots
76%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction4.842.487.32safe3.26–6.421.07–3.894.32–10.32safer2.72–6.960.58–4.383.30–11.34actual4.004.008.00
Corners
84%
homeawaytotalprediction7.083.4210.51safe4.88–9.291.45–5.406.32–14.69safer4.28–9.880.91–5.945.19–15.82actual5.004.009.00
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction58.8941.37safe52.57–65.2135.05–47.69safer50.98–66.8133.45–49.29actual61.0039.00
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction494361855safe429–560296–425725–985safer411–577279–443690–1020actual517326843
Pass accuracy %
84%
13%
homeawayprediction84.4376.02safe80.22–88.6571.51–80.52safer78.92–89.9570.18–81.85
Fouls
85%
homeawaytotalprediction10.6116.5727.19safe7.76–13.4713.63–19.5221.38–32.99safer6.87–14.3612.71–20.4419.58–34.79actual9.0024.0033.00
Offsides
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.342.76safe0.21–2.630.18–2.510.39–5.14safer0.00–2.970.00–2.840.00–5.81actual3.001.004.00
Yellow cards
22%
18%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction1.592.684.28safe0.54–2.651.56–3.802.10–6.45safer0.27–2.921.27–4.091.54–7.01actual1.002.003.00
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.140.20safe0.00–0.210.00–0.330.00–0.54safer0.00–0.360.00–0.480.00–0.84actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
81%
homeawaytotalprediction1.594.145.73safe0.18–3.012.59–5.702.77–8.70safer0.00–3.392.16–6.131.94–9.52actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.23 1.26–3.19 1.00–3.45 | 2.00 | 0.66 0.00–1.52 0.00–1.77 | 1.00 | 2.89 1.07–4.71 0.56–5.22 | 3.00 | 73% 17% |
| Shots on target | 6.77 4.91–8.62 4.41–9.12 | 4.00 | 2.34 0.64–4.05 0.17–4.52 | 4.00 | 9.11 5.55–12.67 4.58–13.64 | 8.00 | 91% |
| Total shots | 18.94 15.23–22.64 14.20–23.67 | 18.00 | 8.23 4.86–11.61 3.92–12.54 | 14.00 | 27.17 20.09–34.25 18.13–36.21 | 32.00 | 98% |
| Shots in box | 12.35 9.83–14.86 8.97–15.73 | 15.00 | 4.92 2.61–7.22 1.82–8.01 | 7.00 | 17.26 12.45–22.08 10.78–23.74 | 22.00 | 96% |
| Blocked shots | 4.84 3.26–6.42 2.72–6.96 | 4.00 | 2.48 1.07–3.89 0.58–4.38 | 4.00 | 7.32 4.32–10.32 3.30–11.34 | 8.00 | 76% 14% |
| Corners | 7.08 4.88–9.29 4.28–9.88 | 5.00 | 3.42 1.45–5.40 0.91–5.94 | 4.00 | 10.51 6.32–14.69 5.19–15.82 | 9.00 | 84% |
| Possession % | 58.89 52.57–65.21 50.98–66.81 | 61.00 | 41.37 35.05–47.69 33.45–49.29 | 39.00 | — | — | 85% |
| Passes | 494 429–560 411–577 | 517 | 361 296–425 279–443 | 326 | 855 725–985 690–1020 | 843 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.43 80.22–88.65 78.92–89.95 | — | 76.02 71.51–80.52 70.18–81.85 | — | — | — | 84% 13% |
| Fouls | 10.61 7.76–13.47 6.87–14.36 | 9.00 | 16.57 13.63–19.52 12.71–20.44 | 24.00 | 27.19 21.38–32.99 19.58–34.79 | 33.00 | 85% |
| Offsides | 1.42 0.21–2.63 0.00–2.97 | 3.00 | 1.34 0.18–2.51 0.00–2.84 | 1.00 | 2.76 0.39–5.14 0.00–5.81 | 4.00 | 39% 25% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.59 0.54–2.65 0.27–2.92 | 1.00 | 2.68 1.56–3.80 1.27–4.09 | 2.00 | 4.28 2.10–6.45 1.54–7.01 | 3.00 | 22% 18% 61% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.00 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.48 | 0.00 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.84 | 0.00 | 83% |
| GK saves | 1.59 0.18–3.01 0.00–3.39 | 3.00 | 4.14 2.59–5.70 2.16–6.13 | 2.00 | 5.73 2.77–8.70 1.94–9.52 | 5.00 | 81% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.