Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Matvey Zaika
Goals
30%
26%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.141.442.57safe0.17–2.100.58–2.300.75–4.40safer0.00–2.360.33–2.540.25–4.90actual2.000.002.00
Shots on target
37%
14%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.144.618.75safe2.28–5.992.91–6.325.19–12.32safer1.78–6.492.44–6.794.22–13.28actual4.003.007.00
Total shots
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6212.8224.44safe7.92–15.329.44–16.2017.36–31.52safer6.88–16.358.51–17.1315.40–33.48actual16.006.0022.00
Shots in box
38%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction7.658.3916.04safe5.13–10.166.09–10.6911.22–20.86safer4.27–11.035.29–11.499.56–22.52actual9.005.0014.00
Blocked shots
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.223.466.67safe1.63–4.802.04–4.873.68–9.67safer1.10–5.331.56–5.362.65–10.69actual4.000.004.00
Corners
40%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.714.969.68safe2.51–6.922.99–6.945.49–13.86safer1.91–7.512.45–7.484.36–14.99actual6.005.0011.00
Possession %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction46.9653.28safe40.64–53.2746.96–59.60safer39.04–54.8745.36–61.19actual62.0038.00
Passes
34%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction370417787safe305–435352–482657–917safer287–453335–499622–952actual467291758
Pass accuracy %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction66.7670.73safe62.54–70.9766.22–75.24safer61.24–72.2764.89–76.57
Fouls
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction16.0111.7327.74safe13.16–18.878.78–14.6721.94–33.54safer12.27–19.757.87–15.5920.14–35.35actual17.0014.0031.00
Offsides
31%
22%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.612.003.61safe0.40–2.820.84–3.161.24–5.98safer0.05–3.160.51–3.500.56–6.66actual1.001.002.00
Yellow cards
46%
19%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.492.164.65safe1.43–3.541.04–3.282.48–6.83safer1.16–3.820.75–3.571.91–7.39actual3.005.008.00
Red cards
15%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.180.100.28safe0.03–0.340.00–0.290.00–0.63safer0.00–0.490.00–0.430.00–0.92actual0.001.001.00
GK saves
44%
18%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.802.655.45safe1.39–4.211.09–4.202.48–8.42safer1.00–4.600.66–4.631.66–9.24actual3.002.005.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.14 0.17–2.10 0.00–2.36 | 2.00 | 1.44 0.58–2.30 0.33–2.54 | 0.00 | 2.57 0.75–4.40 0.25–4.90 | 2.00 | 30% 26% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.14 2.28–5.99 1.78–6.49 | 4.00 | 4.61 2.91–6.32 2.44–6.79 | 3.00 | 8.75 5.19–12.32 4.22–13.28 | 7.00 | 37% 14% 50% |
| Total shots | 11.62 7.92–15.32 6.88–16.35 | 16.00 | 12.82 9.44–16.20 8.51–17.13 | 6.00 | 24.44 17.36–31.52 15.40–33.48 | 22.00 | 36% 56% |
| Shots in box | 7.65 5.13–10.16 4.27–11.03 | 9.00 | 8.39 6.09–10.69 5.29–11.49 | 5.00 | 16.04 11.22–20.86 9.56–22.52 | 14.00 | 38% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 3.22 1.63–4.80 1.10–5.33 | 4.00 | 3.46 2.04–4.87 1.56–5.36 | 0.00 | 6.67 3.68–9.67 2.65–10.69 | 4.00 | 38% 16% 46% |
| Corners | 4.71 2.51–6.92 1.91–7.51 | 6.00 | 4.96 2.99–6.94 2.45–7.48 | 5.00 | 9.68 5.49–13.86 4.36–14.99 | 11.00 | 40% 47% |
| Possession % | 46.96 40.64–53.27 39.04–54.87 | 62.00 | 53.28 46.96–59.60 45.36–61.19 | 38.00 | — | — | 32% 63% |
| Passes | 370 305–435 287–453 | 467 | 417 352–482 335–499 | 291 | 787 657–917 622–952 | 758 | 34% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.76 62.54–70.97 61.24–72.27 | — | 70.73 66.22–75.24 64.89–76.57 | — | — | — | 29% 67% |
| Fouls | 16.01 13.16–18.87 12.27–19.75 | 17.00 | 11.73 8.78–14.67 7.87–15.59 | 14.00 | 27.74 21.94–33.54 20.14–35.35 | 31.00 | 76% 18% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.40–2.82 0.05–3.16 | 1.00 | 2.00 0.84–3.16 0.51–3.50 | 1.00 | 3.61 1.24–5.98 0.56–6.66 | 2.00 | 31% 22% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 2.49 1.43–3.54 1.16–3.82 | 3.00 | 2.16 1.04–3.28 0.75–3.57 | 5.00 | 4.65 2.48–6.83 1.91–7.39 | 8.00 | 46% 19% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.18 0.03–0.34 0.00–0.49 | 0.00 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 1.00 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.92 | 1.00 | 15% 77% |
| GK saves | 2.80 1.39–4.21 1.00–4.60 | 3.00 | 2.65 1.09–4.20 0.66–4.63 | 2.00 | 5.45 2.48–8.42 1.66–9.24 | 5.00 | 44% 18% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.