Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffGoals
29%
28%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.011.312.31safe0.05–1.970.45–2.170.49–4.14safer0.00–2.230.20–2.410.00–4.64actual2.003.005.00
Shots on target
40%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.773.987.75safe1.91–5.632.27–5.694.19–11.31safer1.41–6.121.80–6.163.22–12.28actual4.008.0012.00
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8611.4123.28safe8.16–15.578.03–14.7916.19–30.36safer7.13–16.607.10–15.7214.23–32.32actual8.0011.0019.00
Shots in box
39%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction7.027.5814.61safe4.51–9.545.28–9.889.79–19.42safer3.64–10.404.49–10.688.13–21.09actual7.005.0012.00
Blocked shots
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.492.956.43safe1.90–5.071.53–4.363.44–9.43safer1.37–5.611.05–4.852.42–10.45actual0.001.001.00
Corners
42%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.514.599.10safe2.30–6.712.61–6.574.92–13.28safer1.71–7.312.07–7.113.78–14.41actual9.008.0017.00
Possession %
90%
homeawayprediction40.0660.93safe33.74–46.3754.61–67.25safer32.14–47.9753.01–68.85actual41.0059.00
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction315479795safe250–381415–544665–924safer232–398397–561629–960actual329498827
Pass accuracy %
97%
homeawayprediction62.6278.21safe58.40–66.8373.70–82.72safer57.10–68.1472.37–84.05
Fouls
92%
homeawaytotalprediction17.9610.2128.17safe15.10–20.827.26–13.1522.36–33.97safer14.22–21.706.34–14.0720.56–35.77actual16.007.0023.00
Offsides
35%
21%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.993.75safe0.55–2.970.83–3.151.38–6.12safer0.21–3.320.49–3.480.70–6.80actual0.001.001.00
Yellow cards
56%
17%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.082.225.31safe2.03–4.141.10–3.343.13–7.48safer1.76–4.410.81–3.632.57–8.05actual2.000.002.00
Red cards
21%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction0.250.070.32safe0.09–0.400.00–0.260.00–0.66safer0.00–0.550.00–0.410.00–0.96actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
39%
18%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.602.695.29safe1.18–4.011.14–4.252.32–8.26safer0.79–4.400.71–4.681.50–9.08actual5.002.007.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.01 0.05–1.97 0.00–2.23 | 2.00 | 1.31 0.45–2.17 0.20–2.41 | 3.00 | 2.31 0.49–4.14 0.00–4.64 | 5.00 | 29% 28% 43% |
| Shots on target | 3.77 1.91–5.63 1.41–6.12 | 4.00 | 3.98 2.27–5.69 1.80–6.16 | 8.00 | 7.75 4.19–11.31 3.22–12.28 | 12.00 | 40% 15% 46% |
| Total shots | 11.86 8.16–15.57 7.13–16.60 | 8.00 | 11.41 8.03–14.79 7.10–15.72 | 11.00 | 23.28 16.19–30.36 14.23–32.32 | 19.00 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 7.02 4.51–9.54 3.64–10.40 | 7.00 | 7.58 5.28–9.88 4.49–10.68 | 5.00 | 14.61 9.79–19.42 8.13–21.09 | 12.00 | 39% 51% |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 1.90–5.07 1.37–5.61 | 0.00 | 2.95 1.53–4.36 1.05–4.85 | 1.00 | 6.43 3.44–9.43 2.42–10.45 | 1.00 | 50% 16% 34% |
| Corners | 4.51 2.30–6.71 1.71–7.31 | 9.00 | 4.59 2.61–6.57 2.07–7.11 | 8.00 | 9.10 4.92–13.28 3.78–14.41 | 17.00 | 42% 13% 44% |
| Possession % | 40.06 33.74–46.37 32.14–47.97 | 41.00 | 60.93 54.61–67.25 53.01–68.85 | 59.00 | — | — | 90% |
| Passes | 315 250–381 232–398 | 329 | 479 415–544 397–561 | 498 | 795 665–924 629–960 | 827 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.62 58.40–66.83 57.10–68.14 | — | 78.21 73.70–82.72 72.37–84.05 | — | — | — | 97% |
| Fouls | 17.96 15.10–20.82 14.22–21.70 | 16.00 | 10.21 7.26–13.15 6.34–14.07 | 7.00 | 28.17 22.36–33.97 20.56–35.77 | 23.00 | 92% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.55–2.97 0.21–3.32 | 0.00 | 1.99 0.83–3.15 0.49–3.48 | 1.00 | 3.75 1.38–6.12 0.70–6.80 | 1.00 | 35% 21% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 3.08 2.03–4.14 1.76–4.41 | 2.00 | 2.22 1.10–3.34 0.81–3.63 | 0.00 | 5.31 3.13–7.48 2.57–8.05 | 2.00 | 56% 17% 27% |
| Red cards | 0.25 0.09–0.40 0.00–0.55 | 0.00 | 0.07 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.00 | 0.32 0.00–0.66 0.00–0.96 | 0.00 | 21% 74% |
| GK saves | 2.60 1.18–4.01 0.79–4.40 | 5.00 | 2.69 1.14–4.25 0.71–4.68 | 2.00 | 5.29 2.32–8.26 1.50–9.08 | 7.00 | 39% 18% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.