Premier League·Regular Season - 9·
Premier League·Regular Season - 9·Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoffReferee: Anton Frolov
Goals
39%
28%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.122.34safe0.26–2.190.26–1.980.52–4.16safer0.00–2.450.01–2.220.01–4.67actual1.003.004.00
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.033.897.92safe2.17–5.882.19–5.604.36–11.48safer1.67–6.381.72–6.073.39–12.45actual2.005.007.00
Total shots
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3211.9824.30safe8.61–16.028.61–15.3617.22–31.38safer7.58–17.057.68–16.2915.26–33.35actual11.0011.0022.00
Shots in box
54%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.067.1815.24safe5.55–10.584.88–9.4810.42–20.06safer4.68–11.444.08–10.288.76–21.72actual7.007.0014.00
Blocked shots
40%
16%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.233.336.56safe1.64–4.811.92–4.753.56–9.56safer1.11–5.351.43–5.232.54–10.58actual4.003.007.00
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.314.339.64safe3.10–7.512.35–6.315.45–13.82safer2.51–8.111.81–6.854.32–14.95actual4.005.009.00
Possession %
31%
64%
homeawayprediction47.4354.27safe41.11–53.7547.95–60.59safer39.52–55.3446.35–62.18actual49.0051.00
Passes
36%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction377418794safe312–442353–482665–924safer294–460335–500629–960actual394430824
Pass accuracy %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction62.5867.23safe58.37–66.8062.72–71.74safer57.06–68.1061.39–73.07
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1011.8224.92safe10.24–15.968.88–14.7719.12–30.72safer9.36–16.847.96–15.6817.32–32.53actual12.0010.0022.00
Offsides
52%
20%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.271.633.91safe1.07–3.480.47–2.801.54–6.28safer0.72–3.830.14–3.130.86–6.96actual5.001.006.00
Yellow cards
39%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.232.294.52safe1.18–3.291.17–3.412.34–6.70safer0.91–3.560.88–3.701.78–7.26actual3.004.007.00
Red cards
14%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction0.170.130.30safe0.02–0.320.00–0.330.00–0.65safer0.00–0.470.00–0.470.00–0.94actual0.000.000.00
GK saves
43%
18%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.622.495.11safe1.20–4.030.94–4.052.14–8.08safer0.81–4.420.51–4.481.32–8.90actual3.001.004.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | actual | Awaypred / safe / safer | actual | Totalpred / safe / safer | actual | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.26–2.19 0.00–2.45 | 1.00 | 1.12 0.26–1.98 0.01–2.22 | 3.00 | 2.34 0.52–4.16 0.01–4.67 | 4.00 | 39% 28% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.03 2.17–5.88 1.67–6.38 | 2.00 | 3.89 2.19–5.60 1.72–6.07 | 5.00 | 7.92 4.36–11.48 3.39–12.45 | 7.00 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 12.32 8.61–16.02 7.58–17.05 | 11.00 | 11.98 8.61–15.36 7.68–16.29 | 11.00 | 24.30 17.22–31.38 15.26–33.35 | 22.00 | 49% 43% |
| Shots in box | 8.06 5.55–10.58 4.68–11.44 | 7.00 | 7.18 4.88–9.48 4.08–10.28 | 7.00 | 15.24 10.42–20.06 8.76–21.72 | 14.00 | 54% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.23 1.64–4.81 1.11–5.35 | 4.00 | 3.33 1.92–4.75 1.43–5.23 | 3.00 | 6.56 3.56–9.56 2.54–10.58 | 7.00 | 40% 16% 44% |
| Corners | 5.31 3.10–7.51 2.51–8.11 | 4.00 | 4.33 2.35–6.31 1.81–6.85 | 5.00 | 9.64 5.45–13.82 4.32–14.95 | 9.00 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 47.43 41.11–53.75 39.52–55.34 | 49.00 | 54.27 47.95–60.59 46.35–62.18 | 51.00 | — | — | 31% 64% |
| Passes | 377 312–442 294–460 | 394 | 418 353–482 335–500 | 430 | 794 665–924 629–960 | 824 | 36% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.58 58.37–66.80 57.06–68.10 | — | 67.23 62.72–71.74 61.39–73.07 | — | — | — | 26% 70% |
| Fouls | 13.10 10.24–15.96 9.36–16.84 | 12.00 | 11.82 8.88–14.77 7.96–15.68 | 10.00 | 24.92 19.12–30.72 17.32–32.53 | 22.00 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 2.27 1.07–3.48 0.72–3.83 | 5.00 | 1.63 0.47–2.80 0.14–3.13 | 1.00 | 3.91 1.54–6.28 0.86–6.96 | 6.00 | 52% 20% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 2.23 1.18–3.29 0.91–3.56 | 3.00 | 2.29 1.17–3.41 0.88–3.70 | 4.00 | 4.52 2.34–6.70 1.78–7.26 | 7.00 | 39% 19% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.17 0.02–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.00 | 0.13 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.47 | 0.00 | 0.30 0.00–0.65 0.00–0.94 | 0.00 | 14% 76% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.20–4.03 0.81–4.42 | 3.00 | 2.49 0.94–4.05 0.51–4.48 | 1.00 | 5.11 2.14–8.08 1.32–8.90 | 4.00 | 43% 18% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent · actual: ● inside safe · ● inside safer · ● outside
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+