Premier League·Regular Season - 29·
Premier League·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
54%
23%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.132.97safe0.87–2.810.27–1.981.14–4.79safer0.62–3.060.04–2.210.67–5.27
Shots on target
62%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.043.628.66safe3.18–6.901.88–5.365.05–12.26safer2.69–7.391.41–5.834.10–13.22
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4510.4524.90safe10.52–18.376.89–14.0217.41–32.39safer9.43–19.465.93–14.9715.36–34.44
Shots in box
64%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction8.907.0115.91safe5.96–11.844.33–9.6910.29–21.53safer5.13–12.673.59–10.438.72–23.10
Blocked shots
60%
14%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.882.726.60safe2.00–5.761.07–4.373.07–10.14safer1.46–6.310.58–4.872.03–11.17
Corners
58%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.324.189.50safe3.11–7.542.18–6.185.29–13.72safer2.54–8.111.64–6.714.18–14.82
Possession %
76%
21%
homeawayprediction55.9643.25safe49.17–62.7536.47–50.04safer47.50–64.4234.80–51.71
Passes
87%
homeawaytotalprediction491354845safe424–558287–420711–979safer406–576270–438676–1014
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction69.5367.10safe65.50–73.5662.77–71.42safer64.21–74.8661.46–72.73
Fouls
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2214.5526.77safe9.38–15.0611.60–17.4920.99–32.55safer8.63–15.8210.85–18.2419.48–34.05
Offsides
22%
17%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.782.944.72safe0.62–2.941.85–4.032.47–6.97safer0.32–3.241.56–4.321.88–7.56
Yellow cards
26%
19%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.544.30safe0.72–2.811.41–3.672.13–6.48safer0.45–3.081.12–3.961.57–7.04
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.140.25safe0.00–0.270.00–0.320.00–0.59safer0.00–0.420.00–0.460.00–0.88
GK saves
32%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.573.195.76safe1.14–4.011.63–4.742.77–8.75safer0.75–4.401.21–5.171.96–9.57
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.84 0.87–2.81 0.62–3.06 | 1.13 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.21 | 2.97 1.14–4.79 0.67–5.27 | 54% 23% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.04 3.18–6.90 2.69–7.39 | 3.62 1.88–5.36 1.41–5.83 | 8.66 5.05–12.26 4.10–13.22 | 62% 25% |
| Total shots | 14.45 10.52–18.37 9.43–19.46 | 10.45 6.89–14.02 5.93–14.97 | 24.90 17.41–32.39 15.36–34.44 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 8.90 5.96–11.84 5.13–12.67 | 7.01 4.33–9.69 3.59–10.43 | 15.91 10.29–21.53 8.72–23.10 | 64% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 3.88 2.00–5.76 1.46–6.31 | 2.72 1.07–4.37 0.58–4.87 | 6.60 3.07–10.14 2.03–11.17 | 60% 14% 26% |
| Corners | 5.32 3.11–7.54 2.54–8.11 | 4.18 2.18–6.18 1.64–6.71 | 9.50 5.29–13.72 4.18–14.82 | 58% 29% |
| Possession % | 55.96 49.17–62.75 47.50–64.42 | 43.25 36.47–50.04 34.80–51.71 | — | 76% 21% |
| Passes | 491 424–558 406–576 | 354 287–420 270–438 | 845 711–979 676–1014 | 87% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.53 65.50–73.56 64.21–74.86 | 67.10 62.77–71.42 61.46–72.73 | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 12.22 9.38–15.06 8.63–15.82 | 14.55 11.60–17.49 10.85–18.24 | 26.77 20.99–32.55 19.48–34.05 | 29% 64% |
| Offsides | 1.78 0.62–2.94 0.32–3.24 | 2.94 1.85–4.03 1.56–4.32 | 4.72 2.47–6.97 1.88–7.56 | 22% 17% 62% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.81 0.45–3.08 | 2.54 1.41–3.67 1.12–3.96 | 4.30 2.13–6.48 1.57–7.04 | 26% 19% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.25 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.57 1.14–4.01 0.75–4.40 | 3.19 1.63–4.74 1.21–5.17 | 5.76 2.77–8.75 1.96–9.57 | 32% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.